Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts–New Orleans Saints
Sean Payton’s aggressive play calling
Last year’s game matched up arguably the league’s most aggressive coaching staff (Payton on offense and Gregg Williams on defense) against one of the NFL’s most conservative head coaches, Jim Caldwell. Just as his team won the contest, Payton won the battle of the coaching philosophies. The now-legendary onside kick employed at the beginning of the second half was a triumphant mix of execution and probability, with Payton quoting the recovery rate for unexpected onside kicks to the media after the game. The bigger and bolder decision, though, might have been the one that didn’t work at first: going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line in the second quarter of a 10-3 game. Payton rightly surmised that he was better off going for it, a decision that produces an average of nearly a full point more than the field goal, given the league-wide success rate of 56.3 percent.
The decision is even better when you consider the consequences of the failed conversion. The Saints gave the ball to the Colts on Indy’s 1-yard line, and the difference between giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 1-yard line as opposed to somewhere around his 25-yard line is more than a point, meaning that the decision to go for it produces about two extra points for the Saints. New Orleans ended up forcing a three-and-out and got the ball back with enough time to kick a field goal anyway. Payton’s willingness to maximize his chances with well-timed risks, even in the biggest game of his life, created opportunities that helped the Saints pull out the victory.
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