The captain and heart and soul of the Saints’ defense, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma, is listed as questionable yet again for Monday Night’s game and he’s officially listed as a gametime decision. Can he play? Yes. The question is whether or not he can play and be effective. And that’s been the problem this year… in his attempts to play hurt this season he’s been too slow and too soft from the injury to really make an impact. Pro Football Focus rates Vilma at -12.6 against the run this season, by far worst on the team. Sadly, his replacement Jo-Lonn Dunbar is second worst on the team at -7.9. The major reason for his struggles in my estimation have been his limitations in movement, mostly sideline to sideline, due to him running on a bum knee. Unfortunately, as good as he is, if your middle linebacker is slow getting to the football he’s not of much use. Vilma does lead the team with a pass coverage rating of +3.6 on that same rating scale, though, so I maintain that Vilma is better in the middle, even if injured, if the Saints play a pass happy team. Dunbar, for the moment, is an upgrade against a run heavy team physical team thanks to his sideline to sideline speed and more physical play. Dunbar, however, lacks the play recognition discipline, experience and coverage ability that Vilma has.
The Giants throw to their backs and tight ends less than most teams, relying more on their receiving trio of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz to make plays. Based on that, I think Dunbar is a better matchup in this game against the physical way that Brandon Jacobs runs because he needs to worry less about a receiving back on running downs. If Ahmad Bradshaw plays, then my opinion changes, but it looks like he will be out at this point. The following week against Detroit, a pass happy team with a pretty good tight end in Pettigrew, I think Vilma would be much more useful. For that reason, I think the Saints would be well served to hold out Vilma. The way I see it recovery will be harder on Vilma dealing with a short week with Monday going into Sunday. Instead, I think the Saints would be well served to go with Dunbar one more week and have Vilma a week healthier against Detroit in a matchup he’s more needed in. Not only do the matchups promote this strategy, but the timing of a short week probably makes Vilma dimished against Detroit if he plays this Monday.
One thing is for sure, Vilma hasn’t been himself all season long and his decline whether we want to concede it or not is evident. Can he bounce back, or is he going to steadily get worse? I think that all depends on his recovery. I certainly would never bet against a guy like Vilma because he’s smart and he has heart, but sometimes you can’t bounce back from knee injuries. The surgery he had is an indication that something was clearly wrong and he wasn’t going to be able to help the team with his condition as it stood. The Saints may want to start thinking about a permanent alternative at that position sooner than later. As we saw with Jon Stinchcomb and Deuce McAllister recently, the end of one’s solid career can creep up pretty quickly. I hope I’m wrong and that Vilma can continue to perform at a Pro Bowl level for 5+ more years, but it’s going to require a major bounce back from where he is now. The good news is if anyone can return to glory, it’s Vilma.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
