Under this scenario, the Colts must predict as best as possible what the market value will be for their own pending free agents, determine what they (the Colts) are willing to offer them, then adjust their draft board accordingly. It means they will probably need to rely more on rookies to replenish at positions where they stand to lose players to free agency or age/retirement, with the offensive line, safety and running back positions being particularly vulnerable. It also means they must be near spot on with their free agent value assessments, lest they offer too much to retain a free agent, or worse, lose someone they thought they could retain and not have enough talent waiting in the wings. It also means they have to guess which free agents from other teams will be available, and plan to have the space (roster spot and salary cap-wise, assuming the cap returns) to sign someone, should they target him.
Were foresight 20/20, this would be about as easy or difficult a scenario for the Colts as if the CBA were signed on time. The “easy” part is that the team wouldn’t have to predict the market value of their own free agents – it would be set at 120% of their 2010 salaries. Still, the team would need to evaluate whether they would be willing to pay that amount, adjust their draft board accordingly, then release those in whom they aren’t interested once business started up again. The “hard” part is the uncertainty of when this scenario would be declared in play.
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