I thought we’d start the traditional pregame discussion earlier than usual on the Saturday afternoon before the Eagles take on the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday at 1:00 PM EST. Kickoff will be upon us soon enough.
Sam Bradford (concussion, shoulder) and Ryan Mathews (concussion, groin) have been ruled out for the Eagles, and safety/ST Jerome Couplin (shoulder) has been put on Injured Reserve. The Birds bring up safety Ed Reynolds from the practice squad to replace Couplin.
Here are reproductions of some matchup graphics put together by the PE.com PR staff of the Eagles:
Without Ryan Mathews available, the Eagles running game will rely on DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles and to some extent QB Mark Sanchez and his ability to scramble on certain play calls and in pressure situations. We may also see RB Kenjon Barner get some touches for the first time this season.
Tampa Bay is tough to run on, though. Last week against Dallas they gave up only 42 yards on the ground.
Speaking of running the ball, the Eagles defense has to key on QB Jameis Winston’s ability to make big plays with his legs—but must not overlook the Bucs big back Doug Martin, who is 5th in the league with 706 ground yards. Their other running back Charles Sims is a double-threat with 302 rushing yards and 251 pass reception yards (2 TD’s).
Mark Sanchez will have to take real good care of the ball because he’s going to get some pressure from the Tampa Bay front seven. The team’s most effective pass-rusher this year has been defensive end Jacquies Smith, but he is questionable after being limited in practice all week with an ankle injury. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is right behind Smith with 4.5 quarterback takedowns on the season, but he’s been held without one since Week 5. LB Lavonte David is going to bring it with a variety of athletic maneuvers, but don’t underestimate rookie linebacker Kwon Alexander, who has been a major defensive playmaker for Tampa Bay, ranking third on the team in tackles with 38 to go along with seven deflected passes, two interceptions and a forced fumble.
How does the AccuScore mainframe computer call it?
My boy HAL has predicted the outright winner in 5 of 9 Eagles games so far. His accuracy is down mostly because the Eagles offense has disappeared at times in games which HAL had us pegged for the W.
But after 10,000 game simulations with thousands of variables in scheme and personnel, AccuScore predicts a 60 percent chance for an Eagles victory.
DeMarco Murray is projected for 118 rushing yards and a 56% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Tampa Bay wins, Jameis Winston averages 1.29 TD passes vs 0.63 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1 TD to 1 interception. Doug Martin averages 73 rushing yards and 0.38 rushing TD’s when Tampa Bay wins and 61 yards and no TD’s in losses. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 63% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 69% of the time in the sims where their defense hawked the ball.
Getting to 5-5 would be a big deal for the Eagles. It would also get HAL to 6-4. I’d take that as a much-appreciated Daily Double.
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