Here we are, still wandering in the strip-mall desert of a lockout, and a Spuds-less offseason…but the MACH 10 event rages on here for Eagles fans of discerning taste…
Here’s where I call in the cavalry. Dave Stoessel, the Delaware-based Eagles fan connection of “On The Inside”, has produced some beautiful pieces of tasty sirloin cuts… you can view them in full menu glory at his Eagles Addict site…
Dave blew me away with this lovely comparison of Andy Reid’s draft history to two of the longest-tenured, overachieving NFL Draft veteran-experts in recent history…Bill Belichick of the Patriots, and Jeff Fisher of the Titans.
Take it away, Dave…
Dave also has a very amusing photoshop montage based on this actual photo of the Brian Dawkins’ “Weapon X Tackle”….and many more “Eagles Follies” to offer at his site…
“Last month I analyzed how Andy Reid has fared in the draft since he’s been with the Eagles. At the time I wondered how he has done when compared to the rest of the NFL… but thought that comparison wouldn’t be fair since there aren’t many head coaches who have been with the same team since 1999. But Tom Jackson over at EaglesEyeBlog mentioned that it might be interesting to compare Reid’s “hit rate” with Bill Belichick’s and Jeff Fisher’s…the only 2 coaches that have been in the same place during the same time frame.”
Belichick is widely considered the best coach in the league— with Reid not that far behind. Fisher has always been a highly thought-of and respected coach around the league as well. All 3 have have been successful to different degrees. So, I thought I’d go ahead and see how Reid matched up with these 2 other coaching juggernauts when it comes to drafting college talent.
I ran the numbers and rated the draft picks the same way I did with Reid. The higher the player is drafted, the more that’s expected from him to be a hit. And likewise, the lower a player is selected, the less that is expected from him to be a hit. For example, if you draft a player in the 6th or 7th round, and he starts a few games and makes a positive contribution, that player is a hit— because not much is really expected of late round picks in general.
As with Reid, I’m looking for “hits” in any round of the draft, and “misses” in rounds 1 through 3, which I consider the “money” rounds (where most of the top tier talent is selected). First I will give you the results of Belichick and Fisher, and at the end I list out the hits and misses for each coach so you can see how I came to my conclusions. There were a few players that I grappled with as far as seeing them as a hit or miss ,but of course this is not a scientific exercise —and is ultimately comprised of my subjective opinion. Feel free to disagree with any player you think I didn’t grade correctly…and let me know, it could change the percentages!
Results of Belichick’s 11 Drafts:
101 total picks, hit on 33 = 33% success rate
By money round:
1st: 10 picks, 9 hits = 90% success rate
2nd: 15 picks, 8 hits = 53% success rate
3rd: 11 picks, 3 hits = 27% success rate
4th and 5th rounds combined:
27 picks, 8 hits = 30% success rate
6th and 7th rounds combined:
38 picks, 5 hits = 13% success rate
Results of Jeff Fisher’s 16 drafts:
147 total picks, 49 hits = 33% success rate
By money round:
1st: 14 picks, 10 hits = 71% success rate
2nd: 17 picks, 9 hits = 53% success rate
3rd: 23 picks, 6 hits = 26% success rate
4th and 5th rounds combined:
49 picks, 15 hits = 30% success rate
6th and 7th rounds combined:
44 picks, 9 hits = 20% success rate
Results of Andy Reid’s 12 drafts: (Again, you can see my full explanation of this here)
105 overall picks, hit on 30 = 28.5% success rate
By money round:
1st: 10 picks, 6 hits = 60% success rate
2nd: 16 picks, 9 hits = 56% success rate
3rd: 11 picks, 3 hits = 27% success rate
4th and 5th rounds combined:
35 picks, 9 hits = 26% success rate
6th and 7th rounds combined:
33 picks, 3 hits = 9% success rate
So what does all this show? It shows that Reid is pretty much on par with 2 of the game’s best coaches when it comes to drafting in the money rounds. For overall hit percentage, Reid didn’t score as well as the other 2 because of lesser success in late round picks. Belichick has done the best in round 1, with only one real miss, although I gave him Ben Watson as a hit (I struggled a little with that one). If I had graded Brodrick Bunkley as a hit (he’s probably somewhere in between a hit and a miss), Reid would have a 70% success rate in round 1 and virtually tie Fisher. All 3 coaches had a very similar hit rate in rounds 2 and 3. Fisher and Belichick have the edge in rounds 4 and 5, and Fisher has fared the best with finding 6th and 7th round players.
I would rank their draft prowess as:
1. Bill Belichik (best round 1 hit rate)
2. Jeff Fisher (better than Reid in the later rounds)
3. Andy Reid (but he is close)
I’ve spoken with many fans who feel that Andy Reid “stinks” at drafting players. Well, I feel this thesis pretty much disproves that notion. When it comes to drafting, Reid is in the same ballpark with 2 of the game’s best coaches. At the very least, he certainly doesn’t “stink” after taking a look at Belichick and Fisher. Does seeing these results change your view on how well Andy Reid drafts? Place your vote in the poll!
Details of how I rated the others’ drafts:
Bill Belichick’s hits, by round, from 2000 – 2010:
1st Round: DE Richard Seymour (2001), TE Daniel Graham (2002), DE Ty Warren (2003), NT Vince Wilfork (2004), G Logan Mankins (2005), S Brandon Meriweather (2007), Jerod Mayo (2008), CB Devin McCourty (2010), TE Ben Watson (2004)
2nd Round: T Matt Light (2001), WR Deion Branch, S Eugene Wilson (2003), S Patrick Chung (2009), T Sebastian Vollmer (2009), TE Rob Gronkowski (2010), DE Jermaine Cunningham (2010), LB Brandon Spikes (2010)
3rd Round: CB Ellis Hobbs (2005), T Nick Kaczur (2005), WR Brandon Tate (2009)
4th Round: T Greg Robinson-Randall (2000), DE Jarvis Green (2002), CB Asante Samuel (2003), S James Sanders (2005), K Stephen Gostkowski (2006), TE Aaron Hernandez (2010)
5th Round: C Dan Koppen (2003), P Zoltan Mesko (2010)
6th Round: QB Tom Brady (2000)
7th Round: FB Patrick Pass (2000), WR David Givens (2002), LB Tully Banta-Cain (2003), QB Matt Cassel (2005)
The Misses:1st Round: RB Laurence Maroney (2006)2nd Round: T Adrian Klemm (2000), WR Bethel Johnson (2003), DE Marquise Hill (2004), WR Chad Jackson (2006), CB Terrence Wheatley (2008), DT Ron Brace (2009), CB Darius Butler (2009)3rd Round: RB J. R. Redman (2000), CB Brock Williams (2001), S Guss Scott (2004), TE David Thomas (2006), LB Shawn Crable (2008), QB Kevin O’Connell (2008), LB Tyrone McKenzie (2009), WR Taylor Price (2010)
Jeff Fisher’s hits, by round, from 1995 – 2010:
1st Round: QB Steve McNair (1995), RB Eddie George (1996), DE Kenny Holmes (1997), WR Kevin Dyson (1998), DE Jevon Kearse (1999), LB Keith Bulluck (2000), DT Albert Haynesworth (2002), S Michael Griffin (2007), RB Chris Johnson (2008), WR Kenny Britt (2009)
2nd Round: CB Samari Rolle (1998), DT John Thornton (1999), CB Anre Dyson (2001), S Tank Williams (2002), DE Travis Laboy (2004), DE Antwan Odom (2004), T Michael Roos (2005), RB Lendale White (2006), DT Jason Jones (2008)
3rd Round: WR Chris Sanders (1995), CB Denard Walker (1997), T Zach Piller (1999), RB Chris Brown (2003), DT Randy Starks (2004), WR Damian Williams (2010)
4th Round: T Jon Runyan (1996), WR Derrick Mason (1997), LB Peter Sirmon (2000), WR Justin McCareins (2001), DB Vincent Fuller (2005), T David Stewart (2005), LB Stephen Tulloch (2006), C Leroy Harris (2007), LB Gerald McRath (2009), DB Alterraun Verner (2010)
5th Round: DT Gary Walker (1995), G Benji Olsen (1998), DB Donnie Nickey (2003), G Jacob Bell (2004), RB Javon Ringer (2009)
6th Round: DE Robaire Smith (2000), G Justin Hartwig (2002), TE Bo Scaife (2005), DB Jason McCourty (2009)
7th Round: C Kevin Long (1998), DE Carlos Hall (2002), C Eugene Amano (2004), CB Reynaldo Hill (2005), CB Cortland Finnegan (2006)
The Misses:
1st Round: CB Andre Woolfolk (2003), CB Pacman Jones (2005), QB Vince Young (2006), DE Derrick Morgan (2010)
2nd Round: DE Anthony Cook (1995), DE Bryant Mix (1996), T Jason Layman (1996), WR Joey Kent (1997), WR Tyrone Calico (2003), TE Ben Troupe (2004), RB Chris Henry (2007), DT Sen’Derrick Marks (2009)
3rd Round: RB Rodney Thomas (1995), CB Torey Hunter (1995), LB Terry Killens (1996), T Scott Sanderson (1997), S Dainon Sydney (1998), TE Erron Kinney (2000), DE Byron Frisch (2000), TE Shad Meier (2001), LB Rocky Calmus (2002), CB Rich Gardner (2004), WR Courtney Roby (2005), WR Brandon Jones (2005), WR Paul Williams (2007), TE Craig Stevens (2008), TE Jared Cook (2009), DB Ryan Mouton (2009), LB Rennie Curran (2010)…
Wow… Dave Stoessel really did his homework on this one… I am so proud of him! And his research couldn’t have come at a better time for us wandering MACH-10’ers… You’se Insiders guys have been way too kind in recommending me for PE.com employment— but THIS is the guy that Dave Spadaro should get on board with his staff immediately to help out Bo Wulf and Chris McPherson. Besides, as you all know by now, I can’t drive 55!
(Check out more of Dave’s Eagles-lovin’ work at Eagles Addict…..)
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