A fascinating, if convulted, study
We can then come up with expected winning percentages for each quarterback based on the number of games he played in those situations. As it turns out, Jim Plunkett would have been expected to win about 80% of his 10 playoff games based on the support he received from his running game and defense. He played in one “Gimme” game, which based on league averages is an automatic win. He had six “Easy” games, and since quarterbacks win 92% of those games, we would have expected him to win 5.52 of those games. His other three games were neutral, so we credit him with 1.44 expected wins, for a total of 7.96 wins. In reality, Plunkett was 8 of his 10 playoff games, and is credited with being a “winner.”
On the flip side? Dan Marino, the genesis behind this post. Eight of his 18 games received Impossible grades compared to just one “Gimme.” So Marino went 1-8 in those games where every other quarterback would be expected to go 1-8. The other half of his playoff games? Five Neutral, one Difficult and one Easy. Marino won both the Easy and the Difficult game, and went 5-2 in the seven Neutral games. So his 8-10 record looks pretty good compared to the 30% winning percentage we would expect from these games. He would have been expected to win just 5.4 of his 18 games, or be 3.6 games below .500. The full list, below:
Imagine, another list showing Manning as one of the most undersupported QBs of all time in the playoffs. Gasp.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
