Whether Mr. Smith read the study or not, he certainly got the message. The Falcons, who face the Packers in Saturday’s playoff, almost always reject convention on fourth and short in their opponents’ territory. Their “go for it” rate of 72% was tops in the NFL when you remove attempts in the final four minutes (when losing teams often have no other choice). The NFL average in these situations is a scant 38.8%. The Falcons are very efficient at converting, too. Their 84.6% success rate compares favorably to the league average of 61.6%.
A review of the game logs shows that the likely outcome had the Falcons acted conservatively would have been 21 points (assuming field goals were made at a league-average rate and that no attempts over 50 yards were made). But by successfully converting these fourth and shorts, Mr. Smith’s Falcons scored 51 points. And in three games—including one vs. Green Bay—the points gained off extending the drive ultimately made the difference in a win. That’s essentially what separates Atlanta from being the NFC’s No. 1-seed and missing the playoffs altogether at 10-6.
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