Breaking down Jags game

Collin does a very nice job with this.

It’s also been suggested that Manning should have never thrown this ball, that he led Collie into the collision, but I just don’t see that.  It’s a great throw.  Collie beats the corner and the safety is well over top, Manning puts the ball low where only Collie can make a play on it and where Collie can quickly get down to avoid a big hit and continue the drive.  I think Manning does misjudge the speed at which Smith is coming in, but it’s unrealistic to expect Manning to calculate that.  He correctly made a read on the corner and safety and put the ball in a good place for Collie to make a catch and get down.  Smith makes an outstanding individual effort to peel off his zone and display defensive back speed as a linebacker.  If Smith doesn’t get there, it’s a clean catch.  Even if Smith gets there and doesn’t have the awkward meeting with Collie as Collie is going down, it’s probably a catch and a smack or an incomplete pass.

But I really don’t think Manning leads Collie into anything.  Collie had almost caught the ball when he was hit, and usually when a QB leads a WR into a hit, he places a ball in a position where the receiver can either be sandwiched by a corner and a safety or otherwise is forced to take a head-on collision with a defensive back charging over top.  Here, Manning just makes an incredibly difficult throw that should theoretically put Collie in good position to make a catch and go down.  It just doesn’t end that way, because that’s the way this season has gone.

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