2010 Pats: more lucky than good (must read)

I’ve been saying this for weeks.

The Patriots are +7 in turnover margin so far this season, which helps cover up a lot of that ugly yardage deficiency. The other ingredients in their surprising performance? Special teams (2 kick return TDs, the NFL’s 3rd-best net punting avg and kickoff avg), 3rd-down offense (the NFL’s second-best 3D conversion %), an opportunistic scoring defense (2 INT return TDs), and a mere 2.2 opponent yds/carry allowed in the red zone.

The problem for the Patriots going forward is that most of these factors are notoriously influenced by randomness, and therefore tend not to be consistently repeatable in the future. Regarding turnover margin, the recovery of fumbles is almost totally based on luck, and the ability to avoid interceptions is only slightly less random. Return TDs aren’t predictive events, either, and 3rd-down & red-zone performances tend to be highly volatile because of the sample sizes involved. No, kickoff and punting averages are not as prone to regression, but the rest of New England’s success this year is based on strong performances in largely unpredictable statistical categories.