Kuharsky all the time

Lots of good stuff on the AFC South Blog…

Stats to hold you over

• Including playoffs, the Colts have won the last seven meetings dating back to 2002, posting a 17-15 win in Week 11 at Baltimore. Including playoffs, the teams meet for the ninth time in nine years dating back to 2001. The Colts posted a 15-6 win in the 2006 divisional playoffs at Baltimore in the teams’ only postseason meeting. That’s the last game, regular season or postseason, in which Indianapolis failed to score a touchdown. (From The Elias Sport Bureau.)
• If Manning tops 300 yards passing, it’ll be his seventh 300-yard playoff game. That would put him in first place all-time, unless Kurt Warner does it in the Arizona-New Orleans game. Manning, Warner and Joe Montana all have six.

A look at predictions

The Ravens need to have a repeat performance of the Patriots game to upset the Colts. They need to intercept Peyton Manning at least once and get another monster performance from the trio of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. When the Ravens rush for over 150 yards and intercept Peyton Manning at least once they actually have a 75 percent chance to win. However, if Manning picks apart the Ravens secondary with a pair of TDs and Ray Rice is held to under 100 rushing yards then the Colts are the heavy 80 percent favorite winning by double digits. Joe Flacco threw a costly interception to lose the Ravens game vs the Colts in Week 11. If Flacco throws no INTs the Ravens have a 56 percent chance of winning, but if he struggles with the Colts pass rush who sacks him 3+ times and he throws 1+ INTs the Ravens have just a 23 percent chance.

and a final word…

2. Fresh rushers: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are as fresh as possible for a Jan. 15 game. If the Colts are able to get ahead and then rush Joe Flacco, they could rough him up. Much is made of small speed rushers against imposing tackles. Left tackle Jared Gaither is in his third season and dealing with an ankle injury. Right tackle Michael Oher is a rookie. The Colts’ quick and crafty duo has to be expecting to play well. Indy didn’t have a sack in the first matchup. And while Freeney and Mathis didn’t even have a tackle between them according to game statisticians, they were influential in the outcome.