Of all the Indians’ young players, no one’s future is more uncertain than Lonnie Chisenhall‘s. Despite coming off of a very productive 2014 season in which he hit .280/.343/.427, 13 home runs and drove in 59 RBI for a 121 wRC+, Chisenhall has found himself in a situation where 2015 could be his last as the Indians’ starting third baseman.
The Indians’ defense over the last season has been one of the most discussed topics amongst Tribe fans and no discussion can be complete without mentioning how awful Lonnie was at defending the hot corner. I’m not going to get into the details of how bad he was, at this point everyone is already familiar with his shortcomings with the glove, but it is necessary to point out that Lonnie’s poor defense may create a situation in which his value as a hitter is outweighed by the negative value of his glove. If his poor defense continues to persist, the Indians will be forced to look elsewhere for answers. Fortunately for them, they have a potential answer in the form of a fast-rising third base prospect named Giovanny Urshela.
Before last season, not many people were familiar with Urshela and those who were, knew him as a defensive wizard who lacked the skills at the plate to be a top level prospect. In 2014, Urshela put everyone on notice that he is more than just a great defender with a breakout offensive season split between Akron and Columbus. After starting the year repeating AA Akron, Urshela lit up the Eastern League with a triple slash of .300/.347/.567, and after 24 games he was sent to AAA Columbus where he continued his success. Between Akron and Columbus he posted a triple slash of .280/.334/.491 with 18 total home runs and 84 RBI.
The knock against Urshela had always been that he wasn’t a particularly patient hitter and swung at practically everything. Since 2011, his first playing a full season of professional ball, he had not had a BB rate higher than 3.4% (for context: <4% is considered awful). He still managed to be a decent minor league hitter up to this point because he frequently made contact, rarely striking out. In 2014, Urshela improved his pitch selection and doubled his walk rate to just under 7%, still not great but a substantial increase. Being more selective with pitches and being better able to identify hittable pitches is likely a contributing factor for his offensive explosion in 2014. He posted his best power numbers of his career and the best part is, he’s just 22 years old. In fact, there were just 11 players in the International League younger than him. It’s these great strides in his hitting abilities, coupled with his young age, that provide the biggest threat the Lonnie’s status as the Indians’ everyday third baseman. His defense has long been considered Gold Glove-caliber, so if he develops into even an average major league hitter, he gives the Indians the best chance to win. If Lonnie continues to be a third basemen who can hit but not field and Giovanny Urshela proves his bat can play in the majors, where would that leave Lonnie Chisenhall?
The one thing Lonnie has in his favor is that he has already proven he is capable of being a very good major league hitter, something Urshela, despite all his improvements, may never become. With Lonnie having a breakout year in 2014, the Indians attempted to harness his hitting prowess while eliminating his fielding ineptness by having him spend time at DH and 1B. Lonnie spent just 57.1 innings at 1B this past season, far too small of a sample size to making any reliable determinations on how good we can be, and in that time his UZR/150 was 3.2, which is somewhere between average and above average. It appears that first base could be an option for a potential position change for Lonnie, however, it is one of the most cluttered positions on the Indians roster. With Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher, Brandon Moss, not to mention AAA slugger Jesus Aguilar all likely to see action at first base, it’s unlikely first base will be a major part of Lonnie’s future as long as he’s in a Indians’ uniform.
The same problems exist for Lonnie being moved to a full-time DH role. Nick Swisher, whether we like it or not, is going to see a lot of playing time this season and with his recent injuries to his knees, it is most likely that the bulk of this playing time comes as the Indians’ DH. Similarly, with Brandon Moss coming off hip surgery, he will also be spending time at DH until he is healthy enough to begin what could be a shaky defensive tenure as the Tribe’s right fielder.
The only other position change that is feasible for Chiz would be a move to the outfield, but this too is a difficult task with the roster as it currently stands. The most “open” position in the Indians outfield is probably right field, primarily because Brandon Moss has been slated to fill this position despite unknowns surrounding how well he can play, especially after coming off hip surgery. Even if Moss can’t play right field because of injuries or just regular old incompetence, there are still a number of players who would be in line ahead of Chiz. This season Brandon Moss, Nick Swisher, and David Murphy (assuming he’s not traded) will all be vying for time in right field. Moss and Swisher will both be with the team going into 2016 as well, further complicating the possibility of an Alex Gordon-esque move to the outfield. Left field isn’t an option, save for the possibility of a spot start when Michael Brantley is taking a day off. Michael Bourn will be with the team for the next two seasons, and it’s unlikely they would explore moving Chisenhall to center field anyway. Not to mention the fact that there is no guarantee Chiz is even capable of playing the outfield.
Aside from position changes, the Indians do have a few trade options they could pursue if they wanted to find a way to get Chiz’ bat in the lineup, the first being to trade Giovanny Urshela. This would be an option if Lonnie improves his defense this season. Although it’s unlikely any amount of infield practice accomplish this at this point in his career. This could also be an option if Lonnie hits like he did in the first half of 2014. The front office may be more willing to deal with poor defense if Chiz is tearing the cover off the ball. This quite possibly could be the best case scenario for the Indians, especially if Urshela continues to improve as a hitter, as he could make a valuable trade chip if the team wanted to try to add another piece for a World Series push.
The Indians could also trade Chisenhall. Even if Lonnie doesn’t improve his fielding, he will still have value because of his bat. This is an optimal situation if Lonnie hits well and Urshela shows that he is ready for major league pitching.
The Indians could trade David Murphy, and considering the right field logjam already discussed, this is a move that could become a reality very soon. Of course, this move would only free up at bats for Lonnie if the Indians were to explore moving him to the outfield.
Perhaps the most effective way to get Lonnie’s bat in the lineup on a consistent basis is also the move most fans would love to see, trade Nick Swisher. Swisher will be spending a large amount of 2015 as well as 2016 as the team’s DH, with some time spent at first base. Moving Swisher would essentially give Lonnie a full-time role and would likely improve the team in return. The fewer innings Lonnie spends in the field, the more valuable he becomes. Furthermore, it’s not likely Nick Swisher will be returning to the level he was playing at before he joined the Indians, increasing age and health concerns are lethal to players on the wrong end of 30 like Swisher. Unfortunately, Swisher’s sizable contract virtually guarantees he’ll play out his remaining two years with the Indians.
Finally, the Indians could sell Ryan Raburn to Japan for a case of Sapporo. No Raburn isn’t really preventing Lonnie from getting at bats save for possibly a few at DH, but his presence on the roster is just upsetting in general. Sapporo is a seriously underrated beer with easily the coolest can on the market, pulling the trigger on this deal just leaves everybody happy, mainly Tribe fans!
Obviously there are a ton of “ifs” involved in this exercise, making it nearly impossible to predict with any type of accuracy what will be in store for Lonnie. But all things considered, the Indians would love to have this type of situation on their hands since it would mean that they have too many productive players and too few spots for them. Regardless of the ifs surrounding his future with the Indians, this is an important year for Chisenhall because if his defense remains well below average, he may not be able to find playing time on this Indians’ roster.
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