Tank Watch primer by @lukewachob: 32 days left

32 days and 16 Sabres games stand between us and the end of the NHL season. Here’s the updated Tank Watch standings.

8. Arizona Coyotes – 67 games played, 21-38-8, 50 points, -81 goal differential
9. Edmonton Oilers – 67 games played, 18-38-11, 47 points, -75 goal differential
10. Buffalo Sabres – 66 games played, 19-42-5, 43 points, -98 goal differential

The Coyotes picked up 3 points since our last post, the Oilers got 1, and the Sabres took care of business by losing each of their three games in regulation, leaving them with the same 43 points they had last week. But Buffalo now holds a game in hand and their claim to 30^th is still anything but secure, just 4 points back from Edmonton and 7 from Arizona.

 Arizona Coyotes Game #68: vs. Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday 10 PM                    39-21-6, 85 points, +36

Arizona Coyotes Game #69: vs. New Jersey Devils, Saturday 9 PM               28-28-10, 66 points, -19

When we started Tank Watch a few weeks ago, I didn’t even include Arizona. A lengthy losing streak in February and a flurry of roster moves changed my mind, but the odds were still stacked against them. After beating Vancouver 3-2 last week and taking Nashville to overtime last night, Arizona now probably needs to lose both of their remaining games against the Sabres to have a shot at finishing last. Buffalo is only producing .65 points per game this season, and that’s been with Enroth and Neuvirth. If that rate holds steady the Sabres will finish with 53 or 54 points, leaving the Yotes with precious little room to work with. Arizona plays twice at home this week, then three times at home next week (plus a game in LA), before heading East on the trip that will include their March 26^th game against the Sabres. It’s not inconceivable that by that time, the gap between Buffalo and Arizona will already be too big to close. If it’s not, it’s still likely that the Sabres can essentially knock Arizona out of the McEichel race if they drop both match-ups.

 Edmonton Oilers Game #68: @ Pittsburgh Penguins, Thursday 7 PM             38-18-10, 86 points, +27

Edmonton Oilers Game #69: @ Columbus Blue Jackets, Friday 7 PM                        27-34-4, 58 points, -41

The Oilers have lost five in a row, but things might be about to turn around for them as they get some Eastern conference opponents and home games in the coming weeks. Pittsburgh is a tough match-up, but Columbus is very beatable. Next week may be the most important of the Oilers’ season as far as Sabres fans are concerned, as Edmonton hosts Toronto, Columbus, and Philadelphia. Come April, Edmonton will be playing Western Conference contenders while the Sabres are up against the likes of Toronto, Carolina and Columbus. If the Oilers manage to get through this week and next without widening the current 4-point gap, they’ll be well-positioned to swoop in and steal 30^th at the last second. But if Edmonton plays like they usually do against the East (13-13-1 this season), there could easily be 10 points between the Oilers and Sabres by then. In other words: watch Edmonton closely.

Buffalo Sabres Game #67: @ Toronto Maple Leafs, Wednesday 7 PM                      26-35-6, 58 points, -30

Buffalo Sabres Game #68: vs. New York Rangers, Saturday 7 PM                 40-17-7, 87 points, +43          

 

The 2014-2015 Sabres may be the worst non-expansion team in modern NHL history, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are capable of a special kind of sucking that transcends talent and coaching. As a city, Toronto is like Canada’s New York, but as a sports town, it’s like Canada’s Cleveland. So if you decide to watch this week’s Sabres-Leafs game, do so at your own risk. Remember when the Nazis opened the Lost Ark in Raiders? I imagine it’ll be like that.

This is the dilemma for Buffalo the rest of the way: the East has a lot more terrible teams than the West does. Can I blame Gary Bettman for this? You’re damn right I can. With 8 playoff spots in both conferences, but only 14 teams in the West compared to 16 in the East, is it any wonder that more teams are rebuilding in the East? It’s mathematically harder for them to make the playoffs, which makes tanking and rebuilding more attractive. Nerds call it opportunity cost.

Still, it’ll take more than a weak schedule for the Sabres to blow this. They’re the worst team, they’re in last place, and their goaltending is finally subpar. The State of the Tank is good.