Welcome back to the Sabres Tank Watch. The clock is at 40 days, with 19 games remaining.
In last week’s preview, the best case scenario was a 9 point cushion between Buffalo and the 29th place Oilers, while the worst possible outcome was finding the Sabres in 29th, 1 point ahead of Edmonton.
So, on the bright side, things could be worse, as the Sabres remain in 30th place, by 3 points. But two Sabres victories had a lot of fans reeling, and the plummeting Arizona Coyotes fought their way into the McEichel race in a big way. The Yotes’ incredible cold stretch seems unsustainable (9 losses in a row) but I have to include them with the gap as small as it is.
The updated standings:
- Arizona Coyotes – 63 games played, 20-36-7, 47 points, -76 goal differential
- Edmonton Oilers – 63 games played, 18-35-10, 46 points, -65 goal differential
- Buffalo Sabres – 63 games played, 19-39-5, 43 points, -89 goal differential
With three teams to preview, I’ll look at each team’s slate of games together rather than individually. Each team plays three games this week, with all three in action Tuesday night.
Arizona Coyotes Game #64: vs. Anaheim Ducks, Tuesday 9 PM 40-17-7, 87 points, +12
Arizona Coyotes Game #65: vs. Vancouver Canucks, Thursday 9 PM 36-23-3, 75 points, +13
Arizona Coyotes Game #66: vs. Montreal Canadiens, Saturday 7 PM 41-16-5, 87 points, +36
The Coyotes apparently developed a severe allergy to goals in recent weeks which is serving them poorly. They’ve lit the lamp just 13 times in their 9 game skid, despite playing more competitively than the Sabres on most nights. In 4 of their 9 losses the Coyotes outshot their opponents and in another pair the disparity was 3 shots or less. By contrast, even in just the five games where the Sabres won or earned a point in the last two weeks, Buffalo averaged ten fewer shots per night than their opponent.
That’s the good news: the Coyotes are better than the Sabres, even when they look terrible, and the teams meet twice in March. But Arizona is clearly gunning for McEichel and they just traded away center Antoine Vermette and defensemen Keith Yandle so they should get even worse. You might think Arizona’s upcoming home stand (their next 6 games) is cause for optimism, but they’ve actually performed roughly the same at home and away this season, averaging .76 PPG at home and .74 on the road.
The Coyotes’ bad luck can’t last 19 more games. (Right?) They have to win something, eventually. (Right?) But with a tough Western conference schedule and no desire to win, they’re in the hunt, at least for now.
Edmonton Oilers Game #64: vs. Los Angeles Kings, Tuesday 9:30 PM 29-21-12, 70 points, +4
Edmonton Oilers Game #65: @ Chicago Blackhawks, Friday 8:30 PM 37-21-5, 79 points, +33
Edmonton Oilers Game #66: @ Carolina Hurricanes, Sunday 3 PM 24-30-7, 55 points, -20
Edmonton went 1-1 last week and has another bunch of games against Eastern Conference teams this month, starting Sunday in Carolina. Before that, they host the LA Kings (losers of 3 straight after winning 8 in a row, c’est la vie) and visit Chicago to face the Blackhawks, who haven’t beat a Western Conference opponent since besting the Blues on February 8th. That said, the Blackhawks are 2-0 versus Edmonton this season, with a combined score of 12-3, so prod your voodoo dolls accordingly. The Oilers are 1-1 versus LA and defeated Carolina 6-3 in the only meeting between the two this year.
My sense is that Edmonton is more talented than Arizona and less interested in finishing last than either Arizona or Buffalo, but they’ve got some sort of #BecauseItsEdmonton problem going on that could tank them there anyway. I guess time will tell whether Edmonton or Arizona is the more serious threat. Have you thought about what would happen if both teams somehow fell below Buffalo, leaving the Sabres in 28th? Have you thought about what would happen if, then, some team outside the bottom three won the lottery, like Toronto or Carolina, and the Sabres ended up with the 4th overall draft pick, missing McDavid AND Eichel AND Hanifin? Have you felt the awesome weight of future regret on your shoulders late at night as a cold sweat trickles down your forehead, all because your favorite hockey team might not get the teenager you keep reading about?
That’s tongue-in-cheek – it’s just a game, after all – but I am a little miffed at all the “boy, I’ll be glad when this is over” takes popping up lately. Would you say that if fans were freaking out during a playoff series? I’m sorry if the comparison offends you, but the stakes this season are higher than your average first round series, so yeah, fans are tense. People will be ecstatic when they lose and despondent when they win. Get over it.
Buffalo Sabres Game #64: @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday 7:30 PM 38-20-6, 82 points, +39
Buffalo Sabres Game #65: @ Ottawa Senators, Friday 7:30 PM 27-23-10, 64 points, +8
Buffalo Sabres Game #66: @ Washington Capitals, Saturday 7 PM 34-20-10, 78 point, +29
The Sabres stay in Florida after Saturday’s loss to the Panthers, with a game in Tampa on Tuesday. I hope the team is enjoying the nice weather. It’s been brutally cold in Buffalo this winter (I read about it on the Twitter). I would cancel any plans for morning skates or whatever and just let the guys soak up the heat (well, relatively) and drink excessively all day between games. They deserve a chance to unwind, get loose, play hung-over. It builds character.
Buffalo then gets another two nights off before playing back-to-back in Ottawa and Washington. It’s a nice little road stretch that’ll finish up next Wednesday in Toronto. The Sabres are 7-21-12 on the road compared to 12-18-3 at home. Plus, Ottawa is weirdly hot lately, winners of 5 straight, and Backstrom and Ovechkin could probably beat the Sabres without anyone else from the Capitals even dressing. Buffalo is always an underdog, but is perhaps even more so this week. They can steal a point or a win if Neuvirth stands on his head, of course, but maybe Tim Murray will take care of that problem for us this afternoon.
That’s the week ahead. Keep your fingers crossed and your NHL.com gamecenter pages loaded. The lottery will be here before you know it.
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