It’s that time of year again (finally)! Sunday afternoons are on the eve of being dominated with good ole’ gridiron play. With the arrival of football also comes opportunities for monetary gain. The most socially acceptable opportunities are both fantasy football
, and suicide pools.
While most of my time during football season is preoccupied with my fantasy roster, I somehow find time to work in my suicide pool process. Although not an exact science, there are strategies to employ that give you the best chance to last the longest. So the purpose of this weekly column will be to help you out on who to take, what matchups to avoid, and when you should break the rules.
Yes, there are rules to this, but they are not written in stone. Some weeks, the schedule doesn’t give you any choice. This week is one of those weeks where it’s a little dicey. First, the biggest rule you abide by (this one you break the least) is that you stay away from division teams. Teams within a division know each other very well, and are usually predicated on rivalries. The difference in the win/loss column is irrelevant. Rivalry games in general are bad, division rivalry games are a kamikaze mission.
Next, I try to shy away from prime time games. Something about the big stage tends to make the underdog step up. This rule is obviously up to discretion, because if the Seahawks are playing the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, you know that one is as sure as it gets.
Watch the mid-level teams coming off of early byes. Picking between the mediocre teams in the middle of the season will give you an advantage as the season continues. The bye can come in as an extra advantage so you can breathe easier.
In the NFL, home field advantage comes in at 53.7 percent. Away teams should be taken with good judgment and caution. This is one you will be forced to break at least twice a season.
Last, but certainly not least, is do not under any circumstances save teams. If you find yourself saying “I don’t want to use the Eagles this early,” or “I’m saving my Seahawks card for later,” stop what you’re doing and look at their matchup immediately. People who save teams end up in the loser’s pool because they waited for that perfect matchup that gave them the same feeling as spotting their first caramel apple in the fall.
So now that we’ve gotten all of the formalities out of the way, let’s dive into this week. Remember how I said that there were weeks where you would have to break the rules? Yeah, that’s this week. Unless you’re taking the Jets at home versus the Browns you’re most likely taking away team.
Matchups That Will Help You Breathe Easier:
Miami Dolphins over the Washington National Football Team. Here I go breaking the rules taking an away team. However, with an onslaught of new weapons for Ryan Tannehill, paired with a poor overall Washington team will make this one an easy victory for the Dolphins. The Miami defensive line will be too much for the Washington offensive line making it difficult for Washington to get much going on offense.
Carolina Panthers over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know, it’s not exactly a genius move to pick the opponent of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but if the Panthers want to repeat as NFC South Champions, they have to be able to beat weaker opponents on the road. There are injuries splattered all over both rosters for this one, with Jacksonville taking the bigger hit.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Oakland Raiders. Oakland’s lack of running game will enable the Bengal defense to completely shut down the air attack. The Raiders won’t find the end zone much in this contest. It’s not one of the more exciting games this week, but it’s not a real difficult call to make.
Matchups That Will Give You Heartburn:
Seattle Seahawks at the St. Louis Rams. Remember that rule about division games? It completely applies here. The Seahawks offense and staunch defense (even with the absence of Kam Chancellor) makes them the better team, and they will probably come away from the game with the victory. However, division games always have a subplot, and here we have a Rams team with something to prove and who better to prove it against than the reigning NFC Champions? I would take the Seahawks in this one, but I’m not ready to live that dangerously yet.
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers. This one is going to be an all out shoot-out. Coming off a down year Matt Stafford will see resurgence and put up better numbers on a consistent basis (or at least that’s what I was hoping when I drafted him in fantasy). With Peyton Manning on the down-slide of his career, the NFC West is for Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ taking. Two quarterbacks set up to both have seasons where they live up to their potential facing each other in week one? He’s a funny guy, that schedule maker. I’m not even going to call this one because it’s just going to be which quarterback has the better game. If you want to take five years off of your life by all means, have at this one.
Matchups That Will Cost You Money:
Green Bay Packers at the Chicago Bears. These two teams hate each other. You might be real quick to want to pick the Packers. I can’t say I blame you, they are one of the best teams in the NFL, but division games especially when they come manifested with such hatred are best to be avoided. This one could turn into a coin flip real quick.
New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone is counting the Giants out talking about how the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cowboys will both be battling for the NFC East title. The Giants are dynamic on offense and again, these are two teams that know each other extremely well. Considering it is a division game, on Sunday Night Football, in Jerryland it is a big nope, nope, and nope.
My overall pick for the week is the Miami Dolphins over the Washington National Football team. I’ll be keeping track all season so I don’t keep telling you to take the same teams multiple weeks. The beauty of a suicide pool is that somebody has to win, so choose wisely and it could be you.
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