As we enter the second week of spring training exhibition play, it is important to remind everybody how much statistics are meaningless in March. Too often, the casual fan gets either too upset or excited when glancing at the preseason numbers. There are simply too many variables to consider that would warrant making conclusions based on the numbers.
First, although the players are professional and play baseball for a living, none are in their sharpest form at any point in spring training. Hitters are experimenting with different stances, strides, hand placement at the “launch position” and mental conditioning. Pitchers are trying different pitches, windups, mechanics and focusing on “lengthening the arm,” or getting the arm into shape. In the rare occasion that a player is in mid season form, the player on the opposite end (pitcher or hitter) may not be and thus create an unfair advantage. It is true that a player may experiment during the regular season but we would have a greater body of work in which to evaluate him (large sample size.) In the spring, a player that knows he’ll make the 25-man roster will get only one or two at-bats per game (small sample size.)
Second, there are always inconsistencies in competition and pitcher-batter match ups. The managers toughest job is getting as much work in for the most amount of players as possible. This is why there are usually split squad and “A” and “B” games to give guys innings and at-bats. A team may travel with only fringe prospects to find that their opponents are dressing a majority of opening day starters. Obviously, this could create lopsided scores and inflated stats. This spring, however, the Phillies challenged this assumption.
Third, the spring weather is inconsistent. Although not as volatile as the east, midwest and north, Florida and Arizona has their share of changing climate. For example, the ball will travel farther in the warm, dry and light air in Arizona than in the hot, humid and heavy air of Florida. With the short sample sizes, it makes evaluating by the numbers difficult as each team returns to its respective city after camp. It also tends to rain more in Florida- making it difficult for guys to get as much work in than Arizona and stunting the development.
Finally, spring is not about wins or losses- its about developing players and getting ready to start the season. Managers throw all strategy out the window and simply focus development. For example, a pitcher may be scheduled to throw two innings regardless of how hard he is getting hit or easy he is retiring batters. What’s important is not how many strikeouts he has but rather throwing enough pitches to get his arm in shape. If a pitcher gives up four runs in one inning in the regular season, a manager might have a quick hook. In the spring, however, the pitcher might stay in despite allowing the runs just to get his innings-work in.
For the casual fan, just sit back and enjoy baseball being back on the radio and television. Reminisce about the sights and sounds of the ballpark and think about the warmer days ahead.
The stats will normalize throughout the regular season.
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