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“This mountain is so formed that it is always wearisome when one begins the ascent, but becomes easier the higher one climbs.” – Dante, Purgatorio.
— WGR 550 (@WGR550) August 5, 2015
Much has been made of the above quote by Doug Whaley. Was it honesty? A bit of a defense of the past 2 years of moves (or non moves) at the position? It’s a complicated question with an answer a lot of fans may not want to hear. I’m going to try and break down where Whaley was going with this conversation and how the Bills can get themselves out of purgatory and get into the paradise of a franchise quarterback. HINT: It’s not easy.
1. Getting the Whole Perspective
“Open your mind to what I shall disclose, and hold it fast within you; he who hears, but does not hold what he has heard, learns nothing.” – Dante, Paradiso
While the above snippet has gone around a lot of the conversation (myself included) centered on the idea of the 1st or 2nd pick being the only place you could get a franchise QB. However, Whaley did continue the conversation:
“Franchise quarterbacks hit the free-agent market? Name one. Unless they have an injury. So it’s going to be an onus on our scouting staff to find a guy in the lower first round, second or third round. We accept that challenge. It’s where we are, and it’s been good that we have enough talent around that we’re in that situation, but it’s not an easy answer. There isn’t [one]. ” – ESPN via WGR
That quote paints a much clearer picture, but it is also a bit flawed. In the past, the Bills have touted their medical staff as giving them an advantage in drafting players such as Willis McGahee and most recently Kiko Alonso in addition to free agents such as Chris Williams (yikes) and of course Mario Williams post pec injury.
If the medical staff were trusted enough to help out in these momentous decisions, I don’t think green lighting a (former?) franchise QB with an injury in FA should be that hard. The last QBs to fall into that category were Peyton Manning (+neck issues) to the Broncos in 2012, Brett Favre (+ assorted injuries and Favre…Favre-iness) to the Vikings in 2009 and Drew Brees (+shoulder issue) to the Saints in 2006. And I don’t think anyone, given the team assembled now would scoff at a similar talent in 2016 (2015?) should the Bills be given an opportunity to do so. Heck, scouring developmental QBs, the CFL, inmates with time off for good behavior, etc should be at the top of the list.
2. Drafting a Winner
“Haste denies all acts their dignity.” – Dante, Purgatorio
Back to Doug’s original quote. Here are the players that are current starters in the NFL that aren’t 1st or 2nd overall picks. Note that * denotes that Tannehill hasn’t led his team to the playoffs (yet) and the ** denotes QBs that sat at least a year after being drafted – and in many cases 1.5 to 2 (or 3 years in the cases of Romo and Rodgers):
Tannehill: 8th Overall*
Flacco: 18th Overall
Roethlisberger: 11th Overall
Dalton: 35th Overall
Rivers: 4th Overall**
Cutler: 11th Overall
Rodgers: 24th Overall**
Ryan: 3rd Overall
Brees: 32nd Overall (2nd round in 2001)
Kaepernick: 36th Overall**
Wilson: 75th Overall
Foles: 88th Overall
And I even left Romo (undrafted**) and Brady (199**) off the list. Point being, there are players to be had, but the team may have to be truly willing to find a way to a) get to the player draft spot wise b) develop the player on the player’s own time (not team or fan’s – adding to the purgatory) and c) be all-in with the QB. I’ve spoken a few times in the past about the idea of ‘half measures’ when it comes to the QB position – they have to be in or out as a franchise. If Whaley and Brandon were bold enough to trade up for Watkins with no oversight of an owner, now that the Pegulas are here I’d hope Doug picks his spot to find ‘his guy’ (even though he was in the room when EJ was drafted…but I digress).
While it’s easy to find these examples, you also have to be cognizant of the time crunch/developmental pressure that each team was under at the time of the acquisitions. San Diego had just watched Drew Brees implode and drafted Eli Manning (then trading him for Rivers) with the intent to replace him. One protracted holdout later, the magical Drew Brees, QB Assassin showed up. With today’s CBA, does that happen?
On the flip side Russell Wilson was put in a spot where he truly could compete for a job and won it – taking the Seahawks to Lombardi(s) paradise.
[I’d love a Twilight Zone viewing of a world where the Bills drafted Wilson and he, in addition to Hughes and Woods had a falling out with Marrone. Good times.]Looking forward to 2016, players such as Christian Hackenberg, Kevin Hogan, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cody Kessler among others may be available. If there’s a guy they absolutely love, get him. That may mean an RG3 – level trade. If they think he’s worth it, do it.
Heck, with the way they acquired offensive talent for defensive talent straight up, maybe they trade a defender and say Robert Woods (#FreeWoods) to a team for a young QB or as part of a trade up to get a young QB. DO YOU SAY NO?
…alright. What if it’s Dareus and their first for a Rivers/Brees?
These may be the sort of questions Doug and company have to answer in a few months.
3. Catching Lightning in a Bottle
“He who best discerns the worth of time is most distressed whenever time is lost.” – Dante, Purgatorio
By the time the season rolls around, no one will remember the first four days of camp. Except maybe me, but I’m crazy. So if Cassel or Manuel or Taylor can help nudge the Bills to 9-11 wins, depending on how they contributed (12 touchdown – 21 interception “Sanchezian” year or a 21 TD – 7 INT 2010 Cassel?) may lead to either a general feeling of “this is fine” to fall over the fandom, or at least abate us for a few months. As Spring would swing into view the question would emerge that everyone would be thinking: can he do it again?
There’s just no telling. Because in 2008 and 2010 Cassel was amazing statistically, but 2 years out of 7 as a spot starter / starter / mentor / competitor does not a track record make. EJ could light the world up and then dovetail a bit. Do the Bills acquire another high priced vet / high pick to push him or ride it out?
Or what about Tyrod – if he were to emerge, do they drop everything and follow his lead or keep a ‘ripcord QB’ in the wings should he start to stumble whilst these pieces are in place?
All of those scenarios are firmly in the “just keep this up while we have these pieces” sort of living the Jets / Vikings got away with under Favre and the current Broncos have done with Manning. Both teams got to within a hair of the playoffs (thanks bounty Saints!) and losing in the Super Bowl (sorry Peyton), so it has its merits….
4. The Elephant in the Room
“Fate’s arrow, when expected, travels slow.” Dante, Paradiso
The best outside of sports comparison I can make for the QB Purgatory situation is dating. Undoubtedly we all have that friend (if it’s not you) that tells the single people in your group of friends, ‘you’ll find the right person when you least expect it!’
That’s great for a Hallmark card or to have an after-school special, but for a fan of a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years that’s a tough pill to swallow. But it’s true.
Are you, as a fan willing to go through a Drew Brees 100+ completions to his running back year to get the Brees that set completion records? Or do you want the record-breaker without letting him develop?
That’s the thing about purgatory: there’s got to be a little suffering before you get to paradise. #1FO
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