Funny thing happened on the way to the subway after work tonight. The shitty snow that we’ve all come to despise this year was blowing in my face and soon after my phone started to blow up. “Kiko is out, LeSean McCoy is in [MY FACE MELTS].” I was so shocked that I got on the wrong subway while trying to tweet, text, and call someone. Yes, I paid the price by walking an extra 10 blocks in the snow to get home. But seriously…Holy crap! What a crazy deal. When these things go down like this, I tend to just go through every single situation when it comes why this deal makes sense or doesn’t. That’s what I’m going to do here in a hot take forum..
Pro: The Bills needed a running back and they got a guy who is capable of being in top 3 at the position. We all know they are going to pound the crap out of the football. That’s all Greg Roman and Rex Ryan have talked about. If you go back to Rex’s first two years in NY, they rushed the football at will. Same goes with Roman with the 49ers. You could go running back by committee or you find the every down back. The success for the running games for both coaches came mostly when they had the feature back getting 20+ carries per game. McCoy is that guy. He’s had the most rushing yards in the NFL the past 5 seasons and he does it through the air as well. You can’t ask for a better running back.
Con: McCoy’s got some serious mileage on his tires. The guy has 1,461 carries since 2009. That’s twice as many as CJ Spiller has and even more than Fred Jackson has for his career. He was 2nd, 1st, 23rd, 8th and 19th the past 5 seasons in carries and 31st, 12th, 3rd, 1oth and 1st in catches for running backs. Hell, the dude had a 78 catch season. So, in total, he’s had 1,761 touches in six seasons. He’s 26. He probably has maybe 2-3 more good years left. Maybe less..or maybe more. I don’t wanna paint too broad of a brush over when a running back goes downhill because its always case by case basis. Curtis Martin was the man in his early 30s, but some guys fell apart even before they hit 30 (See: Shaun Alexander) However, what’s working against him is that he’s not coming from an offense where he splits carries. While 26 seems young for a running back, I put more into workload than actual age and there’s no debate, when you lead the league in rushing since 2009, you have been running a lot.
Pro: We don’t need a damn running back in the 2nd round! Hooray! I’ve said before that I’m not big on drafting running backs within the first 2 rounds. This way, the Bills can draft a guard or TE or one of their more pressing needs.
Con: 10 million dollars for a running back? That’s a lot of coin. Now, if the Bills can do some maneuvering with the cap and free up more money to address pressing needs in FA, then I can sleep better. Right now they are about 17-20 million under the cap. So, maybe that’s not as big of a panic when you consider they can probably sign Hughes (I think he’s gone) and a one of the top TEs. If Hughes leaves, put whatever leftover money you have into finding a guard then. However, I’ve always been the guy whose said you DON’T need to pay a running back because you can find them anywhere in the draft. Since 1987, 18 running backs have won rookie of the year. Last year, 10 of the top 20 running backs were picked beyond the 2nd round. You don’t have to pay. Period. Now, McCoy is a rare talent and he’s probably the guy you can pay for. However, he’s 6 years into his career. Time is ticking?
Pro: Do we really need Kiko Alonso? I like Kiko and thought he had a banner 1st year. I don’t wanna hear about how he hit a wall because ALL rookies seem to hit walls at some points. Its always easy to kick a guy when he’s out the door by minimizing what he really accomplished here. The talent was there and he looked like he’d be a legit LB for years to come. However, last year the Bills LBs did a great job in his absence. Football outsiders had the Bills ranked 2nd in defending TEs (38 yards per game given up) and 5th in defending running backs out of the backfield (36 yards per game given). The rush defense was much better than in 2013. Manny Lawson thrived as an OLB under Pettine and they may not miss that much of a beat next year under the same defense Rex had. Plus, Kiko is coming off an ACL injury. Maybe it doesn’t matter, but I kind of remember what happened when Sam Cowart and Takeo Spikes blew out their ACLs and they were never the same. Further more, I can say unequivocally that McCoy is a better player right now than Kiko.
Con: Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham are going to have a lot of pressure on them. I know you can say they made Kiko expendable and that proof is in the pudding based on last year. However, I don’t want to start anointing mid-round picks who started one season as being all-world LBs who can anchor your LB core. I’ve seen enough Angelo Crowell’s in the world to know you can be out of this league pretty fast after a nice start to your career as being a mid-round pick. You can also raise an issue that they are going to a completely new defense. Plus, Kiko does have more longevity as a pro than McCoy does currently. While Preston Brown has only 1 NFL season under his belt with just Schwartz, Bradham did play under Pettine in 2013, but he didn’t start. I kind of hope the Bills bring in another LB at modest costs to help the transition. A Brandon Spikes: 2.0 would be nice fit here. David Harris, anyone?
Pro: More McCoy stats! McCoy had more rushing yards this past season than CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson combined. He has 23 100-yard games and has 10 games where he’s caught at least 6 passes. He has 8 games where he’s rushed for 2+ TDs. Pro Football focus had McCoy ranked as the 7th, 6th, 6th, 7th and 18th most elusive backs the past 5 seasons. In 2013, McCoy forced 57 missed tackles (3rd most in the league for RBs) and 39 in 2012 (7th most). Since 2010, McCoy has had at least 100+ yards in total offense in 47 of his 74 games.
Con: Is McCoy a byproduct of two innovative coaches in Andy Reid and Chip Kelly? I tend to believe that Andy and Chip know more about offense than Greg Roman. This isn’t to say Roman sucks, but we can all admit that Andy and Chip have a better resume and can accentuate players abilities, especially Chip. The narrative coming out of Philly is that they didn’t want to pay for McCoy anymore because Kelly thinks he can put anyone back there to make the running game work. He may be right. He did the same thing last year when they cut DeSean Jackson because they felt they could find other guys. In a way, this reminds me of lesser version of the Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis deal from a decade ago between Washington and Denver. Shanny -Playing Chip Kelly today- thought he could get anyone back there and didn’t know anything about defense. Joe Gibbs -Playing Rex/Roman today- was oldschool and wanted a running back he could run into the ground. In the end, Denver won the deal.
Final words
I have zero idea if I like this trade. I’m probably leaning towards…yes…yes? Yes, I like it. It really depends what else the Bills can do this off season and I hope they can address guard/TE issues. I am a bit worried about McCoy adjusting to this offense though. This ain’t Philly where they seemed to have pretty competent Quarterbacking for most of his career there and I respect their offensive coaches more than our own. They always say a QB can be a running back’s best friend…or is it the other way around? The bottom line is that I trust Chip and Andy Reid’s passing offense much more than Roman’s passing offense. It mostly has to do with I’d rather have Foles/Vick (in his prime under Reid) than EJ Manuel right now. Teams aren’t going to respect EJ or whatever FA retread the Bills sign. This will make defenses key on McCoy much more. Could EJ see the light? I guess. Am I banking on it? Eh.
However the silver lining is that I’ve been saying for a few years now that a great defense + a really good rushing attack + average QB= playoffs. We know we have the defense, but this past season the Bills rushing attack was a grease fire. Now they may have the best back in the AFC. So, progress?
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