March is a time that basketball fans covet as teams ready themselves to play in the NCAA tournament as they battle to be a part of the Final Four. Yet, as a hockey fan I could careless who wins the Final Four let alone which college programs make the tournament. As a Minnesotan, March is all about State High School Boys Hockey Tournament, the largest and most publicized event of its kind in the entire world. The tournament which starts Wednesday and lasts until Saturday is a showcase of some of the best young hockey talent in the State of Hockey. The games are intense, the drama is incredible and the ending is usually somewhere between epic and incredible. I can still remember it as if it was yesterday, watching the legendary Apple Valley / Duluth East Semifinal game in 1996, that featured tourney legend, Duluth East’s Dave Spehar and Apple Valley’s stud Erik Westrum. In a game that would go down in the ages as perhaps the greatest state tournament game ever it was a 5 overtime marathon (which started at 8PM and did not end until after 1AM) before Apple Valley finally broke the stalemate to earn their way to the final game where they completed their jouney with a state title. If you love a good adrenaline rush and action that puts you on the edge of your seat it doesn’t get any better than this tournament.
The tournament often serves as a great first look for future NHL’ers as players like T.J. Oshie, Erik Johnson, Blake Wheeler, Matt Cullen, Paul Martin, Phil Housley, Darby Hendrickson, Mark Stuart, Mark Parrish, Neal Broten, Tom Kurvers, Jon Casey and Jamie Langenbrunner just to name a few. Yet its not always the players with the most prolific professional careers that shine the brightest in the tournament, as some of the biggest names of the tournament John Mayasich, Mike Antonovich, Henry Boucha, Johnny Pohl, Scott Bjugstad, Tim Sheehy, and the aforementioned Dave Spehar. Coaches like Tom Saterdalen and Willard Ikola became coaching legends as their teams racked up an impressive score of state titles. Now young hockey players all over the state of hockey dream of qualifying for the state tournament and traveling to the Xcel Energy Center with a chance to play for a state title and being apart of the lore that makes it so special. It should be noted that while broadcasters love to mention the Wild’s sellout streak (which will extend to 400 consecutive games on Sunday, the 3rd longest sellout streak in NHL history at this point) the next most mentioned thing is the 100+ high school jerseys which decorate the walls of the arena. Former North Stars General Manager, Lou Nanne (who has been been apart of the State Tournament broadcast as an analyst since the 1970’s) once mentioned in an interview that the TV contract for the Minnesota State Boys Hockey Tournament was the same as the entire yearly broadcast contract of the North Stars! Think its just a simple little tourney? Think again. The tournament regularly sells out and its safe to say that over a 100,000 fans will attend these games and many thousands of Minnesotans will sit down to watch the action on TV at home.
So now that you’ve heard a little about the legacy of the State Tournament (this will be the 65th year of it), what about this year’s tourney now that the section finalists have all been decided. We’ll look at each matchup and provide a prediction as to who we think will win. All times listed are in Central Standard Time as the games are broadcast on Channel 45.
Class A (games start Wednesday)
No. 2 Mahtomedi Zephyrs (23-5) Vs. Alexandria Cardinals (21-6-1) @ 11AM
The Matomedi Zephyrs are coming off of what many would call an upset when they defeated #2 ranked St. Thomas Academy in the section final, but what can they do for an encore. Alexandria on the other hand used to be a Class AA school and will find its hands full against a loaded Zephyrs squad. The Zephyrs are led by the two-headed monster of senior forwards Brandon Zurn (33 goals, 39 assists in 28 games) and Charlie Adams (33 goals, 31 assists in 26 games) while the Cardinals are more of a score by committee type of team but will be hard pressed if they try to match goals with Mahtomedi’s potent attack. Zephyrs senior goaltender Brad Wohlers is solid with a 13-4 record, 2.76 goals against average and a .905% save percentage. Neither team has faced one another this season. Prediction: Expect Mahtomedi’s offense to simply be too much for the Cardinals as they cruise to a 5-1 victory.
No. 3 Hermanton Hawks (25-3) Vs. Virginia/Mt.Iron-Buhl Blue Devils (18-7-3) @ 1PM
The Hermantown Hawks are going to be focused to make a run for the state title and will be facing a slightly familiar Virginia/Mt.Iron-Buhl squad. Hermantown defeated the Blue Devils in their own meeting, a 4-2 victory on December 22nd. The Hawks are led by Adam Krause (199th rated North American skater according to Central Scouting) who possesses a good mix of strength on the puck and good hands around the net. Virginia/Mt.Iron-Buhl has been a good Iron Range story as they’ve taken over the mantle that used to be owned by Eveleth-Gilbert, and they will be leaning heavily on center Garrett Hendrickson (184th rated North American skater by Central Scouting) in what will no doubt be a bitter Northern Minnesota battle. Prediction: Hermantown’s experience as well as they’re active defense will be the difference in this game as they win 4-2.
No. 1 Breck Mustangs (26-2) Vs. New Ulm Eagles (16-9-1) @ 6PM
Its all about defending the state title, and the Breck Mustangs will be focused as they battle state tournament newcomer New Ulm. The Mustangs feature one of the most prolific offenses in the tournament with 3 players with 25+ goals this season including seniors Tyson Fulton (34 goals, 50 assists in 28 games) and Mike Morin (33 goals, 28 assists in 25 games). The Eagles’ junior goaltender Blake Burgau will need to be outstanding if they are to have a chance against Breck. Offensively New Ulm will have to figure out a way to get a few pucks past senior netmidner John Russel who has been a rock all season for Breck with an impressive 19-2 record, a stingy 1.38 goals against average and a .935% save percentage. Neither team has faced one another this season, but Breck has played a far tougher schedule and this one could get ugly quick. Prediction: Let’s face it, Breck is built to repeat and New Ulm will likely do its best to simply keep the game close but unfortunately, any mistake they make will end up in the back of their net as the Mustangs roll to a 6-0 victory.
No. 4 Warroad Warriors (24-4) Vs. Rochester Lourdes Eagles (17-8-3) @ 8PM
Warroad and State Tournament are a match made in heaven as the Warriors are making another trip back to St. Paul after a tough Section final against a very tough Thief River Falls squad. Rochester Lourdes is back representing section 1, but they have their work cut out for them against Warroad. The Warriors are led by centerman Brock Nelson (17th rated North American skater by Central Scouting) and have done well in a very competitive season schedule. The Eagles play a wide open brand of hockey, but they do not play many teams that can hurt them the way Warroad can and will if they’re not careful. Prediction: Warroad’s experience and killer instinct will be more than enough to beat Rochester Lourdes in a 5-1 win.
Class A Champion Predction: Breck repeats as state champion with a 4-2 win over Mahtomedi in an all metro matchup.
Class AA (games start Thursday)
No. 2 Edina Hornets (20-6-2) Vs. Roseau Rams (22-5-1) @ 11AM
It doesn’t get much more classic than this as the suburban Hornets battle the smallest school in class AA in Roseau that somehow manages to defy the odds and be amongst the best year after year. The Hornets do not have a high octane squad but they are about as battle tested as it gets with a brutally difficult schedule. Edina is paced offensively with a committee-type of attack led by senior Steven Fogarty with 20 goals, 16 assists in 21 games, while the Rams are led by a potent trio of Shane Omdahl (25 goals, 37 assists in 25 games), Adam Knochenmus (20 goals, 25 assists in 20 games), and Cole Kostrzewski (17 goals, 23 assists in 24 games) yet the production tails off sharply after this. One advantage the Hornets may have is their ability to go to two different goalies in this tournament with seniors John Ankeny (9-3-1 record, 1.92 goals against average and .919% save percentage) and Connor Girard (10-3-1 record, 1.66 goals against average and a .914% save percentage whereas the Rams will look to Ethan Kvidt between the pipes who also has impressive numbers 19-5-1 record and 2.34 goals against average and a .905% save percentage. These two teams have not faced each other this season. Will the Rams be able to withstand the gritty style of play the Hornets’ embrace? Prediction: I think this will be a very close game, and if Edina has an off day they could end up being surprised in a bad way but my instinct tells me Edina wins this one in a close one, 3-2.
No. 3 Blaine Bengals (21-4-3) Vs. Apple Valley Eagles (17-11) @ 1PM
It has been a while since Apple Valley won the state tournament in 1996, but they hope to make some noise this time around. They will be facing a very strong, and well-rounded Blaine Bengals squad that features 4 players with at least 20 goals including Junior phenom Nick Bjugstad (34 goals, 34 assists in 27 games as he was the 12th rated North American skater according to Central Scouting) , seniors Nick Scheid (29 goals, 30 assists in 21 games) and Jonny Brodzinski (23 goals, 29 assists in 22 games). The Eagles are very much the opposite, instead of 4 incredibly potent scorers Apple Valley is all about scoring by committee with 9 players who are double digits in goals and are led by freshman Hudson Faschling (24 goals, 17 assists in 19 games) and sophomore A.J. Michaelson (17 goals, 16 assists in 16 games). Apple Valley junior goaltender Aaron Gretz will have his hands full in this game, but his numbers demonstrate he’s a big strength for the Eagles with a 13-10 record, 2.24 goals against average and a .905 save percentage. Prediction: While I think the Eagles balanced attack could make for some interesting matchup issues for the Bengals, I think going to have a tough time slowing down Bjugstad, Scheid and Brodzinski as Blaine will roll to a 4-1 victory.
No. 1 Minnetonka Skippers (25-1-2) Vs. Lakeville North Panthers (11-15-2) @ 6PM
This game is like Goliath vs. Cinderella. On the one end is the Goliath that is Minnetonka, an incredibly talented team with highly touted star players all over its roster from Max Gardiner (19 goals, 31 assists in 18 games as the 36th rated North American skater according to Central Scouting), senior defenseman Justin Holl (54th rated North Ameican skater) as well as defenseman Andrew Prochno (154th rated North American Skater), and on the other is very modest roster that does no players with at least 30 points. Lakeville North pulled off a huge and oddly decisive upset of cross-town rival Lakeville South which was a team that had beaten them twice. Neither of these two teams have faced one another this season but the Panthers will need a fantastic performance by sophomore goaltender Charlie Lindgren. (5-7-2 record, 2.81 goals against average, .882% save percentage if they are to have a chance. Prediction: Goliath will likely maul Cinderella in this game, and I am predicting a 7-0 win for the Skippers.
No. 4 Hill-Murray Pioneers (25-2-1) Vs. Duluth East Greyhounds (19-5-4) @ 8PM
Another classic state tournament matchup as two familiar faces battle one another. In their one previous meeting this season, it was the Pioneers who earned a decisive 5-1 victory over the Greyhounds. A few seasons ago, the Pioneers were seeded 4th and ended up taking home the first place trophy and they hope to do it again. Senior Pioneers’ forward Willie Faust leads the team with a relatively modest 22 goals, 22 assists in 23 games. Duluth East is an experienced team that always seems to perform well in big games but it just might not have enough offense to beat one of the best goaltenders in the metro area in senior Tim Shaughnessy who sports a 21-2-1 record, a very stingy 1.54 goals against average and a .926% save percentage. It may not seem appropriate to play the what if game, but it would be interesting to have seen this game if talented defenseman Derek Forbort (11th rated North American skater) hadn’t forgone his senior year at Duluth East to go play for he U.S. National Development Team instead. Prediction: It will be close for a while but Hill-Murray will eventually overwhelm the Greyhounds as they win 4-2.
Class AA Championship Prediction: Minnetonka prevails after a hard fought 4-3 victory over Blaine.
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