Joe: Going into last season, you could easily make the case that the Bills wide receiving corp was the weakest unit for the team. Stevie Johnson: 1 catch in 2009. Roscoe Parrish: 3 catches in 2009. Hell, we were hoping that James Hardy would take the reins as the #2 option! However, the receiving corp turned heads as Stevie Johnson became only the 3rd wide receiver drafted in the 7th round in the last 10 years to go over the 1,000 yards for a season (TJ Hoseyourmama and Donald Driver were the others). Roscoe was on pace for 66 catches before he got hurt against the Bears. After the veterans, you then had some of their younger guys pick up the pace. David Nelson, Donald Jones and Roosevelt (Now on the practice squad) contributed at certain times during the season.
However, Matty, it all changed…
Matt: And now we’ve lost Lee Evans and everybody is worried that we’re going back to Turdsylvania with our receiving corps. I don’t really think the fear is warranted, frankly.
Joe: Why is that? Do you think Donald Jones will be a legit number 2 option? Because if you use the law of the NFL psychics, starting undrafted rookie wideouts don’t usually stick around as #2 options.
Matt: I mean, I guess there is no way to tell. Probably no one thought Stevie Johnson was going to be The Man either. Your point is taken that Johnson was probably the exception to the rule, but you never know. It’d be nice to have Evans, but I think the younger guys have earned enough to at least get a shot, unlike another young guy I know (*cough* Spiller *cough*). Who was the best receiver in franchise history? And when was he drafted? I know, I know, it doesn’t happen routinely, but it does happen. Maybe Jones is that next guy. As you told me yesterday, you’ve got to give young guys the ball.
Joe: As for the Evans effect, look, I know a number of Evans supporters will talk about how he helped guys like Johnson and Parrish get open. He helped them because defenses would double Lee or have the safety play over the top. I get that, but how much did he help T.O. get open in 2009? Not much. What about Josh Reed? What about Roscoe Parrish before Chan Gailey got here? All I’m saying is, let’s not discredit what Gailey, the other wideouts and Fitzpatrick have done for the offense before we make Evans seem like Randy Moss.
Matt: Exactly. If Evans was helping all these guys get open, why did it just start happening all of a sudden last year? It’s because it;s make-believe. Totally made up. Evans is eminently replaceable. But look. What we need is to be better than that. We won 4 games and scored like 18 points per game *WITH* Evans last year. I need the wide receiver corp to be better.
Joe: OK, let’s get off the Evans stuff and concentrate on the guys we have now. Let us start with Stevie Johnson. I think the guy is going to be a stud in this league. It’s funny when you consider that he had a rocky start to the 2010 season. Gailey wanted Stevie to prove his worth and kind of played mind games with him at the start of the season. Stevie didn’t start two of the first five games and averaged only 42 yards receiving a game. He was taken out of the starting line-up twice, but that didn’t phase the 3rd year pro as he came out blazing against the Ravens, and caught 8 passes for 158 yards. Stevie then went on a tear. Including the Ravens game, Johnson had 42 catches for 582 yards and 5 touchdowns in his next six games.
Matt: Look at you with your stats!
Joe: I’m not done. Then The Drop came. After that, Johnson never went over the 100 yard mark for a game and scored one touchdown for the rest of the season. So in a nutshell, Johnson was bad, then great, then average.
Matt: The first few games of last season shouldn’t count for anything as far as I’m concerned, considering how much changed so dramatically. Stevie is actually the one I am worried the most about. I am worried about how he will perform this year because there are very high expectations put on him now. People are saying “All we have is Stevie Johnson.” I’m not sure that we even know that we have him.
Joe: Well, we need him to be The Man. I do see a little of Eric Moulds in him in that while he can stretch the field enough, you wouldn’t consider him a burner. He can break tackles, and he’s a good route runner. This is a huge year for him because he’s going into his contract year. He could get anywhere between 8-10 million a year.
Matt: I also think that Roscoe is the actual #2 guy on the squad, it’s just that he’s much better as the slot guy, which is traditionally your #3 wideout spot. So he’s the #2 playing #3 reps.
Joe: Parrish is a interesting story because last year at this time, we thought he was dead. Dick Jauron didn’t know how to use him, and if you remember, Skeletor actually deactivated him for a couple of games in 2009. However, I’m still concerned about him. We know he has a tendency to get injured. If he goes down then you have all these undrafted 2nd year guys behind him. Parrish was a key target for Fitzpatrick when he was healthy. He made a lot of gritty catches. Parrish went from really being just a deep threat to being a guy who can catch slants and balls in traffic. He really got down and dirty as a lot of his catches seemed to be in traffic. 21 of his 33 catches came within 7 yards of the snap which tells me that he was running those underneath routes that Gailey wants his wides to run. Parrish seemed to be picking up some steam before he got hurt as he had 19 catches in his last three games.
Matt: The Elias Sports Bureau over here. I think part of Parrish’s health problems are obviously that he is so small, but he goes across the middle. So sure, that is a concern. You know, I was at the 6-3 loss to Cleveland where Parrish fumbled the punt return which set up the winning field goal. At that point, I wanted nothing to do with him. But looking back, I can sort of see that you want to make the most of the 4 plays a game Skeletor gives you. I think the X-factor is not really how Johnson and the #2 do, but how well our depth at wideout holds up. The Bills like to spread the ball around, and so having multiple guys who can catch 30 passes is important.
Joe: Yeah, they love having multiple guys catch 30 passes. Not sure if that is a good thing. Lee Evans was 2nd on the team in catches last year which was only good for 114th in the league. In fact the Bills 2nd leading pass-catcher had the least amount of receptions in the NFL for secondary options on a team.
Matt: Do you remember the excuse for why Rob Johnson took all of those sacks? “No one is getting open down field!” I wonder if that is going to make a comeback.
Joe: I actually don’t remember that excuse about Johnson. I think people realized he was a dumb idiot. Anyway, I get your point. This offense isn’t designed to go deep. That’s why Evans was expendable in my view. So how do you feel about Donald Jones and David Nelson? I like both guys, but I think the love affair with how well they played last year was due in part to their draft status and how they came out of nowhere. We love underdog stories in this town.
Matt: I like Jones, though I don’t know that he is physical enough or has the tools to be a true starter in the league. So that’s something we’ll find out this year. As for Nelson, he is the most gifted player behind Johnson in the receiving corps. But he is slow as molasses. Since we got rid of Evans, who was our spread the field kind of guy, I don’t know that he’s the right fit for #2 right now, though I think he’s the most polished of the tier 2 guys.
Joe: Yeah, I like Nelson. He’s pretty much our version of the tight end because he’s such a big target for us. However, you are right about the speed. Nelson only averaged 11 yards a catch. As for Jones, he reminds me a little of Roscoe Parrish. Maybe it has to do with the teen number. But he has some speed and can make tough catches in traffic. You are right though, the deep ball may be lacking this year though.
Matt: I think Jones is a little stronger/bigger than Parrish, isn’t he? Maybe not tougher. I think the problem with Jones is that there just isn’t enough known about him yet so it’s hard to praise or criticize.
Joe: What did you think of Easley’s performance against the Jags? I know it’s preseason and it’s early, but he looked good. What I liked most was that he dropped a pass early, but did it distract him? No. He played well and seems to be the underneath guy that Gailey wants out of his wides.
Matt: I thought Easley looked good. Look, it’s preseason so there is always some question as to what is reality and what isn’t. Think about all the players in past years who’ve looked great in preseason and then turned out to be scrubs. I think it was encouraging though that Easley took the opportunity he had with the first team to shine. I think the question is, with Donald Jones hurt, can Easley show enough to get on the inside track as the #2 guy?
Joe: Well, I’ve always been someone who puts stock in where a player is drafted. Easley is a former 4th round pick while Jones and Nelson are undrafted guys. I think they want to see him succeed because of that. Unless he really bombs in the preseason finale, I think they use him as their #2 option for the season opener.
Matt: Which is why I’m glad you’re not the GM of the Bills, because where they’re drafted should make no difference. You can’t force a square peg into a round hole sort of thing. I think at this point, the #2 receiver could be anybody. Jones, Nelson and Easley have all shown me equal amounts. I think because of that, Jones starts the year as the defacto #2 and the best of the rest becomes the true #2 by week 3 or 4.
Joe: Sometimes I think the 2nd option thing can get blown out of proportion. At the end of the day, Gailey is going to have 4-5 wide sets so everyone could be a 2nd option depending on the play. I do hope someone steps up. Stevie Johnson accounted for almost 30% of Fitzpatrick’s completions and almost 50% of his touchdown passes last year. I think Stevie and Ryan need help.
OK, so how many receptions, yards and touchdowns does Stevie get?
Matt: I’m going to say… 65 receptions, 6 TD. I have lower expectations for Stevie than most.
Joe: That’s your predcition for Stevie? That low? I actually think Stevie will get his 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. He and Fitz have that connection.
Matt: I think Stevie Johnson is going to get doubled so often this year that he might as well not even run some routes. I don’t doubt his talent. I think he’s the best wideout we’ve had since Moulds. But it’s sort of like putting a slugger in the middle of a weak line-up. They can just work around him.
Joe: That’s a fair point, but he did average 6 catches a game when Evans went down with injury. We shall see. So who is the 2nd leading receiver for the Bills this season? I think it’s Fred Jackson or CJ Spiller.
Matt: I’m going to say Donald Jones. I think Easley is going to take some time to acclimate himself to the NFL game, and Jones already has a year of play under his belt. The backfield guys are a possibility, but I think we’re less of a screen happy team than we were two seasons ago. I think Donald Jones catches 45 passes, and Jackson/Spiller combine for about 45.
Joe: Any final thoughts?
Matt: I think that there is a lot of talent in the wide receiver corps, but using it the proper way now is far more important than it ever was before. What Lee Evans gave the squad was room for errorbecause we had more depth. Now we’re asking the team to roll the dice and find another Stevie Johnson. If last year’s offense was any indication, the Bills are going to need 3 quality receivers in order to be a competitive team this year. Do they have them? Do they even have 1? Time will tell.
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