The Royals have been the stomping mat of the American League Central since it’s inception in 1994, finishing third or worst every season from 1996 through 2014 including eight last place finishes. During that span, Kansas City finished above Cleveland just two times (2012 and 2003) prior to 2014. Of course, things changed finally in 2014 as the Royals made it to the play-offs and the World Series for the first time since 1985. While this has vaulted them into the group of highly respected teams at the top of the league, they have also suffered more loss this off-season than any other Central team including the ace who brought them there, James Shields. With the improvements to the White Sox, the Indians increased health and the aging of the Tigers (in addition to the loss of Max Scherzer), there is no certainty anywhere in the Central Division this year.
Starting Pitching
Despite losing Shields to the Padres through free agency, there is a good chance that the Royals actually improved their rotation this off-season. While the only addition, Edinson Volquez (who was given a two year, $20M deal after a nice season with the Pirates in 2014), will not make up for Shields, the return of the incredible Yordano Ventura (3.20 ERA, 153 K’s in 30 starts during his rookie year) and Danny Duffy should. Both pitchers are very young and extremely talented and will likely lead the rotation otherwise filled with veterans like Volquez, Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas (who continues to prove that being left handed is considered a skill).
With this focus on young starters, the Royals are almost where the Indians were a year or two ago. Ventura is their Danny Salazar, but Salazar is a year ahead and should be ready for a full load in 2015. In addition, the Royals have no one like Corey Kluber, instead having three Gavin Floyds. Carlos Carrasco could be a turning point for the rotation as his ability ranges from being a second ace to being the worst pitcher in baseball. Even without him at his best, with T.J. House, Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin available as depth options, the Indians still would have at least a slight advantage over the Royals rotation.
Advantage: Indians
Defense
This isn’t a fair fight as the Royals had one of the best defenses in 2014 and the Indians had flat out the worst in all of baseball with both teams returning most of their regulars. For the Royals, one of the only players not returning will be Nori Aoki, who was one of the team’s worst defenders with a defense score of just 0.6 on FanGraphs.com. His replacement will be Alex Rios, another veteran the Royals possibly over payed for with an $11M single year deal at the age of 33. While in the past he has been an extremely good defender in right, that has not been the case in the past few seasons as his -4.3 UZR/150 in 2014 with the Rangers pushed his career UZR/150 down to a still respectable 7.5.
Outside of Rios, the Royals may have the best outfield in baseball with four time Gold Glover Alex Gordon in left and Jarrod Dyson (36.6 UZR/150) and Lorenzo Cain (18.7 UZR/150) available in center field. While their infield isn’t quite as good, they still have one of the best catchers in baseball in the two time Gold Glover Salvador Perez and above average defenders at third in Mike Moustakas and at short in Alcides Escobar. While the Indians will almost certainly improve defensively at this point, it is unfair to even compare the two teams in this aspect.
Advantage: Royals
Relief Pitching
This is one piece of the Royals that actually got national respect by the end of the year, but it was one part of the team that the Indians had little trouble with. Of Greg Hollands two blown saves and three losses in 2014, one of each came in separate games against the Indians making them the only Central Division team to be the star closer. In his loss against Cleveland, the Indians were also just one of three teams to tag two runs on Holland, who finished with an ERA of 1.44 and 46 saves.
Behind him, the Royals will maintain their group from 2014 including Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and everyone’s favorite LOOGY, Tim Collins. While he played just two games against Cleveland in 2014, in his career Collins has allowed a 6.59 ERA against the Tribe with more walks and runs allowed than against any other team.
On the Tribe side, they have a near equivalent closer in Cody Allen and better set-up men than the Royals in Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski along with an interesting group of young pitchers and failed starters filling up the end. While overall, the Royals may have the advantage here, in a head-to-head battle, the Indians have to consider the late innings a strength on their side.
Advantage: Indians
Offense
As defense went to the Royals in 2014, offense went to the Indians. Even with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn both producing vastly under their salaries, the Indians were an above average team offensively while the Royals were surprisingly deficient considering their finish to the season. To be fair, Michael Brantley and Alex Gordon can be considered equivalents as can Salvador Perez and Yan Gomes in both cases with the Indians player being slightly better offensively and the Royals slightly better defensively. At third, Moustakas had a below average season and Lonnie Chisenhall had an above average season in 2014, but they will likely both come towards the mean and similar seasons should be expected in 2015.
Where the Indians should have an advantage is at second, where a resurgent Jason Kipnis should outplay Omar Infante and in right field, where the newly acquired Brandon Moss will likely provide considerably more power than Rios with similar defense. Expect the Indians to improve slightly from their 2014 numbers in the upcoming season and for the Royals to improve even more, but this should still leave the Tribe slightly ahead at the plate.
Advantage: Indians
Overall
While the Indians may have an advantage in three of four categories, they are all close leads and the Royals remain with a huge advantage defensively. If Trevor Bauer and Carrasco don’t come through as hoped or if Swisher and Kipnis struggle as they did in 2014, this script could easily flip into a Royals sweep. Given that, on paper the Indians are tentatively the better team, but there are four legitimate contenders in the Central Division this year and even the slightest change against the expected could lead to any one of those teams winning the division. Luckily for all the teams involved, there are now two Wild Cards and it wouldn’t be surprising to see two Central Division teams make the play-offs as they have in each of the last two seasons. Very likely, those two teams could be the two analyzed today.
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