Central Showdown: Indians vs. Reds

While the rest of the team to team comparisons posted under the “Central Showdown” title will be about the Indians rivals in the American League Central Division, we will start with Cleveland’s primary Spring Training rival, the National League Cincinnati Reds, the only team they will play more than twice. The following is a breakdown comparing four facets of each team to the other to find the dominant franchise going into the series.

Starting Pitching

Since both teams are in Spring Training mode, starting pitchers are not as important as the regular season as each will be throwing a maximum of three innings during the first few weeks. A simple breakdown of both groups shows the Indians with two excellent starters returning from 2014 and six starters with Major League talent who have a lot of questions to answer going into 2015. The Reds are in a similar situation with one of the best pitchers in baseball, another dependable MLB starter behind him, a veteran returning from injury and four younger starters who have had variable success to this point.

In fact, these two rotations line up almost perfectly down the line. Taking a look at both rotations on the right, the top pitchers came in first in the AL Cy Young voting (Kluber) and second in the NL (Cueto) and the next two, Leake and Carrasco, had nice years in 2014 as well. Here, there is greater difference as Leake has been a very dependable pitcher from 2011 on, pitching more than 165 innings each season although he has never posted an ERA below 3.30. Carrasco, on the other hand, was more dominant during the second half of 2014 than Leake has ever been in his career, but as he has never proven he could continue this dominance, there is a much better chance that Leake will repeat his 2014 in the coming season. Going back to the aces, Cueto also has a greater chance of repeating his amazing 2014 season than Kluber as it was not all that different from any of his other seasons since 2011.

The fourth pitcher in each list is a generally dependable starter coming back from injury. Bailey from a torn flexor tendon and Floyd from a broken elbow. Each did pitch well in 2014 and if they can return from injury successfully, they could be the turning point of each rotation. This stability is necessary as, while every other pitcher in either rotation is Major League capable and some, like Cingrani and Salazar capable of much more than that, there are few true guarantees down the line for either team. While both teams are fairly even matched and a change in the winds could push either group to the top, the Indians appear to have the advantage at the moment, especially considering the real depth listed five and on in case someone from one to four does fail.

Advantage: Indians

Defense

The Indians had the worst defense in baseball in 2014, so there is little doubt that the Reds would have the advantage here, but Cleveland has made a few moves since the beginning of 2014 to change things around.

The defensive scores listed to the right come from FanGraph’s cumulative defense score which shows a player’s overall defensive value above the average player. While this isn’t the ultimate evaluation of defensive talent, a quick overview reinforces what those who watch either team regularly already know. The Reds have one of the best middle infields anywhere with Brandon Phillips at short stop (in possibly his final season in Cincinnati) and Zach Cozart at short stop. On a further positive note, all four catchers likely to make the 25 man roster for either team are excellent defensively with the Indians taking a slight advantage there. At the corners, Zack Cozart is the only truly above average player on either team with two possible first basemen who weren’t included above, Nick Swisher and Brandon Moss, being particularly terrible defensively.

The outfield would be the biggest point of contention for either team as only Billy Hamilton is considered a great defender. While he does deserve that distinction, Michael Brantley and Michael Bourn are largely under rated as is Jay Bruce of the Reds. No matter how it is valued, the Indians outfield looks to be much improved in 2015 with the exchange of David Murphy for Moss. For both teams, the only new starter defensively is an outfielder, Moss for the Indians and Marlon Byrd for the Reds.

Advantage: Reds

Relief Pitching

Since most MLB bullpens are yet to be fully constructed for 2015, we’ll just take a look at the back-end for each team here. For how good Cody Allen was for the Indians last season, the Reds closer, Aroldis Chapman was even better. With a 2.00 ERA and an almost impossible 106 strike outs in 54 innings (Allen had a 2.07 ERA with 91 K’s in 69.2 IP), Chapman was arguably the best closer in baseball last season and comes into 2015 as the most coveted. After him, however, the slight advantage turns over to the Tribe. Bryan Shaw (2.59 ERA) was the most used reliever in baseball and deservedly so, while Marc Rzepczynski and Scott Atchison also held earned run averages below 2.76.

For the Reds, things aren’t so positive. While a couple younger players, like Jumbo Diaz and Pedro Villareal could turn things around, there isn’t much dependability behind the Cuban Missile. Sam LeCure should be Cincinnati’s primary set-up man after posting a 3.80 ERA in 2014 with Manny Parra as the primary left handed match-up man. In a year where many starters held ERA’s below 3.00, the Reds relievers were particularly average and could be a major issue on an otherwise well rounded team.

Advantage: Indians

Offense

This is an area that both teams could be among the best if they play as expected rather than how they played in 2014. Even still, last year the Reds had the NL Rookie of the Year in Hamilton while Brantley came in third in the AL MVP vote. Devin Mesoraco even received five points for the NL MVP with 80 RBI and a 4.8 WAR. With Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in addition, the Reds should be able to improve greatly from their 28th place finish in runs scored last year. Of course, other than Byrd, there have been no real changes to the Reds lineup and if these former greats don’t return to form, there could be a wholesale dismantling of the Reds by next July.

The Indians also had a few under performers last year, but thanks to the youth of the overall roster, they were still able to finish 11th in baseball in runs scored. With the addition of Moss, the removal of Asdrubal Cabrera and a healthy Nick Swisher, there is a good chance the Indians could be one of the most dominant teams in the American League at the plate. With Carlos Santana steady at first and Lonnie Chisenhall expected to receive a starting role as well, some of the early season inconsistencies should be able to be overcome. Already the Indians have one of the best offensive catchers, first basemen and left fielders so all it should take is for Moss, Swisher and Bourn to hold up their salaries for things to get really exciting.

Advantage: Indians

Overall

While Spring Training games are generally meaningless and wins are not even worth recording, there seems little question that the Indians have an all around advantage over the Reds. While the Reds’ players are largely reaching the ages where value decreases, most of the Indians are entering into their prime. Cincinnati may have missed their window for a championship with their current roster, but the Indians are right in the middle of theirs.