Awesome stats prodigy Domenic Galamini (@MimicoHero) has recently popularised the use of Usage Adjusted Possession, or UACorsi (explained here). Usage Adjusted Possession does exactly what it sounds like: adjusts a player’s possession totals based on a few weighted factors: linemates, zone starts, and quality of competition. This paints a more accurate picture of how well a player is performing, regardless of their usage.
Domenic has now put together a tool called a HERO Graph. This awesome gadget allows a visual bar graph to be generated for specific players to show just how well they’re faring in a variety of categories, such as the aforementioned UACorsi, as well as rate stats for points/goals/assists and scoring chances. The graph does not feature the actual numerical output of the player, instead presenting the information in a way that shows their optimal use in a line-up: first line, second line, third line, fourth line or sub-replacement level, based on their over-all rankings among other qualified peers.
The numbers for forwards are representative of 600+ total minutes played at even strength over the course of 2012/13 until today (2.5 seasons). Thus, Jeremy Morin (just under 520 minutes), Alexander Wennberg (just over 400 minutes) and Adam Cracknell (about 475 minutes) unfortunately do not have graphs made up for them.
We’ll first be examining the Blue Jackets forward corps, with the defense to follow tomorrow. The HERO Graphs are presented in order of the player’s sweater number, with my “ideal” line combinations listed at the conclusion.
Jack Skille‘s numbers lend him to being a solid fourth line option, capable of popping in more goals and scoring chances than your typical crash-and-banger or goon, and that’s what the team should be aiming for.
Matt Calvert‘s graph is pretty much on the nose: a good possession player who doesn’t really have that top six scoring ability. His best use is as a third line complementary player, PK’er and occasional second unit PP’er where he can skate around causing some havoc.
A bit of a surprise was Cam Atkinson‘s chart. He’s got elite level scoring chance production, and while he seems snakebit right now [he just ended a 14-game goalless drought and has just a goal and four assists in his last 17 games], he’s poised to rebound hard in the second half. His SH% at evens of just 5.1% is over 3% off of his career norm and astoundingly low for a guy who generates as many chances as he does. His high possession rates and the fact that he plays a lot of minutes with Dubinsky shows me that his goals will come fast and furious in the near future. Those calling for his dismissal are, to be generous, misguided.
Brandon Dubinsky‘s chart also surprised me a bit. His possession rates were quite a bit higher than I had anticipated seeing, as was his assist rate. His goals/60 is quite low, owing partially to 2012/13 where he had one even strength goal, but even in that year he was a very strong possession player and was at 56% goals for, incredible given his individual scoring output. His assist rate seems high for him, but he’s actually in the top 40 in First Assists/60 over the past 2.5 seasons, indicating that perhaps he’s a bit better of a playmaker than he’s given credit for.
When Aaron Portzline penned an article about the Jackets expecting Ryan Johansen to play even better, many scoffed – myself included. After all, he was in the middle of an 11 game point streak! What more could be asked of him? This graph shows that perhaps the thought wasn’t so far-fetched. Much like Hartnell, Joey’s graph is a bit skewed due to his poor 2012/13 season, which I suppose we’re all still trying to forget. But while Joey is producing goals at a nearly elite rate, his point production is that of a mid-to-upper-tier second liner, and his possession percentages are not exactly where we’d expect them to be. Granted, not every high end scorer is an elite possession driver – Stamkos and Ovechkin are two that spring to mind – but it certainly doesn’t hurt to own the puck more often than not. This chart shows that CBJ management is absolutely correct: there is more to Johansen that we haven’t seen, which is a scary thought for opposing teams.
Brian Gibbons‘ graph is largely influenced by his 2013/14 season, where he played roughly twice as much as he has so far in a Blue Jackets uniform. While this graph is likely flattering to Gibbons’ full game, it does show that he has some offensive ability and can help suppress shots against. He may have a bit more potential to move up in the line-up than simply being a fourth line option, but in a perfect world, he’s a 4L.
Corey Tropp is a relatively serviceable fourth liner, but skill-wise, he’s an easily replaceable 12th/13th forward.
Though many are clamouring to stick Boone Jenner on Joey’s wing when he returns, a second or third line role is more of a fit for Boone at this stage of his career. His offensive play driving is a smidge higher than I’d expected to see, but the rest of the graphs are about in-line with his current abilities.
Jared Boll… (*exasperated sigh*)
Artem Anisimov has one more year left on his contract at $4m, and if he can stay healthy he’s easily worth that, especially given the role he’s expected to play as a third line C with powerplay time. He is a good goal producer and does very well at suppressing shots against. The knock against Arty is that he can be a bit too “selfish” with the puck at times, forcing plays when perhaps a pass would be more beneficial. It leads to more goals against, as evidenced by a GF% of just over 20% this year, and sub-50% over the past three years, despite solid individual production numbers. What’s more, Anisimov is a solid passer, he just chooses not to use that particular trait as much as he should.
Scott Hartnell‘s point rates are skewed a bit by his awful 2012/13 season [8+3 in 32 games], and his production levels otherwise are right in line with a high-end 2nd line/low-end 1st line player. Certainly when compared to the man he was dealt for, Hartnell looks even better:
https://twitter.com/RedditCBJ/status/560847732857139201
Mark Letestu is unfortunately being buried on this team, stuck as the flexible fourth line C or R, who plays some sporadic PP time and key PK’ing minutes, but generally having at least one anchor – if not two – on his wing. His skill set and performance graph indicates that he could be moved higher in the line-up, but that if he’s maintained as a 4C, he will arguably be the best one in the league. His defensive shot suppression is excellent and while he’s not exactly setting the world on fire offensively, his defensive play and ability to keep the puck on the right side of the ice will help more offensively minded linemates [like, say, Jack Skille or Brian Gibbons] be able to generate the offensive chances.
Nick Foligno‘s chart is exactly what I figured we’d see out of him: a high level second liner. His inflated SH% (13.24% at evens, and a whopping 50% on the PP) will definitely go down, something which the Scoring Chances/60 stat reflects, but the possession and hopefully production-by-association will still be there. Is he the kind of guy you give over $5m a year to? If he can continue making every teammate he plays with better offensively then it’s going to be worth it, even with a dip in second half goalscoring.
MY IDEAL LINE COMBINATIONS (for this line-up)
Scott Hartnell – Ryan Johansen – Nick Foligno
Boone Jenner – Brandon Dubinsky – Cam Atkinson
Matt Calvert – Artem Anisimov – Jeremy Morin
Brian Gibbons – Mark Letestu – Jack Skille
Corey Tropp
The biggest holes in the CBJ line-up are on clearly on the right side. While Atkinson is a relatively solid second line option, and Skille is a decent fourth liner, the first and third line slots are filled by guys who shouldn’t be filling them. Foligno is a smart linemate for Joey, but it should be more on his natural left side. He is not as effective on his off-wing. Meanwhile, Morin is a natural LW playing off-wing on the third line. The only other real competent options are Jenner (off-wing and has looked miserable playing RW in limited stints) and Alex Wennberg – a natural C who would be on off-wing playing RW. One can hope for a miracle recovery for Nathan Horton, but in a more realistic world, filling that RW slot needs to be priority one for the management team heading into the deadline or the off-season. Being able to shift Foligno back to LW and have a LW of 71, 43, 38 and 11, along with a C of 19, 17, 42, 55 would be huge. All that would take is a single injection of a big or capable RW. Easier said than done.
The HERO Graphs for defensemen will be up tomorrow in part two!
– Jeremy
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