The best time of the year is on, as the Big East Tournament begins play today at noon. The first game up is Connecticut vs DePaul on ESPN. The night session, begining at 7, will be on ESPNU. I love tournaments. The Big East is the best one out of all of them. It might not be the best conference, yeah right, it is, but with all of the quality teams in the league, you are guaranteed high quality match ups come Wednesday through Saturday. For this preview, I’ll do a quick team by team rundown, followed by my predictions for the whole tournament. The predictions will change every day, because no one will hold me accountable for them.
(1) Pittsburgh Panthers 27-4, 15-3
Ken Pom Offense: 5
Ken Pom Defense: 16
Ken Pom Rank: 6
Leading Scorer: Ashton Gibbs 16.4
Leading Rebounder: Gary McGhee 7.8
Leading Assister: Bradley Wanamaker 5.2
Defensive Notable: Bradley Wanamaker 1.5 steals, Gary McGhee 1.4 blocks
BB Thoughts: The Panthers are the most complete team in the league. Known for their defense, they are actually the second best offensive team in the league. The Panthers are devastatingly efficient, and have the tools in place to run the NYC table. This is a team that I would place my chips on to win the whole damn thing.
(2) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 25-5, 14-4
Ken Pom Offense: 3
Ken Pom Defense: 64
Ken Pom Rank: 15
Leading Scorer: Ben Hansbrough 18.5
Leading Rebounder: Carleton Scott 7.1
Leading Assister: Ben Hansbrough 4.2
Defensive Notable: Ben Hansbrough 1.3 steals, Carleton Scott 1.8 blocks
BB Thoughts: The Fighting Irish are an offensive machine. They have the best offense in the league, and the 3rd most efficient in the country. The Bearcats saw that offense first hand back in January, as the Irish carved them up. The Irish have done that to nearly everyone they have played. The only big concern seems to be that Hansbrough will get himself into foul trouble from time to time. For instance, he fouled out pretty early against UConn. He’s the straw that stirs the drink for the Irish, and probably the Big East Player of the Year. How long he stays on the court is huge for Notre Dame.
(3) Louisville Cardinals 23-8, 12-6
Ken Pom Offense: 47
Ken Pom Defense: 9
Ken Pom Rank: 14
Leading Scorer: Preston Knowles 14.5
Leading Rebounder: Terrence Jennings 5.3
Leading Assister: Peyton Siva 5
Defensive Notable: Peyton Siva 2.1 steals, Gorgui Dieng 2.1 blocks
BB Thoughts: The Cardinals really overachieved this season. They had every excuse to not be in the top 3 of the Big East, but the Cards overcame injuries to nearly everyone, and were the biggest surprise of the league in my book. This team is dangerous every game because of what they do well, defend and shoot the 3. If the Cardinals get the pressure going, they are hard to score on. If the threes are falling, they are tough to beat. That means when the shots aren’t falling, the Cards can be beaten. They’ve struggled with offense away from the Yum Center, and I think they are going to be tested in NYC and beyond. With Rick Pitino’s pedigree, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals were playing Saturday.
(4) Syracuse Orange 25-6, 12-6
Ken Pom Offense: 16
Ken Pom Defense: 17
Ken Pom Rank: 11
Leading Scorer: Kris Joseph 14.2
Leading Rebounder: Rick Jackson 10.7
Leading Assister: Scoop Jardine 6
Defensive Notable: Scoop Jardine 1.6 steals, Rick Jackson 2.5 blocks
BB Thoughts: Syracuse is no stranger to success at MSG. The Orange went to the title game 2 seasons ago. Last year, they were bounced in the first round, but that’s not worth talking about. Syracuse is one of two teams ranked in the top 20 in both offense and defense. When they have both sides clicking, they are a powerhouse. They closed the year winning 5 in a row, so they come into NYC as one of the hottest teams in the league. A semifinal game of them against Pitt would be something to see.
(5) St John’s Red Storm 20-10, 12-6
Ken Pom Offense: 44
Ken Pom Defense: 34
Ken Pom Rank: 31
Leading Scorer: Dwight Hardy 17.9
Leading Rebounder: DJ Kennedy 5.9
Leading Assister: Maalik Boothe 2.9
Defensive Notable: DJ Kennedy 1.8 steals
BB Thoughts: The Red Storm seem to have an advantage playing the Garden. Their first game on Wednesday afternoon should have the place rocking. It should be a win over Seton Hall or Rutgers as well. The game against Syracuse on Thursday could host one of the biggest day crowds ever. I’m making that up, but that’s not out of the relam of possibility. The Red Storm play very well at home, no one more than Dwight Hardy. Hardy has had monster games at home, and he could carry the Red Storm a long way. I’m a little concerned about the rest of the St John’s offense. It’s holding me back from thinking they can win the whole thing.
(6) West Virginia Mountaineers 20-10, 11-7
Ken Pom Offense: 26
Ken Pom Defense: 30
Ken Pom Rank: 21
Leading Scorer: Casey Mitchell 14.3
Leading Rebounder: Kevin Jones 7.4
Leading Assister: Joe Mazzulla 4.1
Defensive Notable: John Flowers 2.4 blocks
BB Thoughts: The Mountaineers are the defending conference tournament champions. They have a tough road to another. The Mountaineers aren’t really a great offensive or defensive team this season. One thing they do very well, is rebound. Rebounding is something that travels well. It gives the Mountaineers a chance in every game they play. I don’t know if they are quite that good to win 4 games in 4 days. One thing Bob Huggins is good at, is winning conference tournaments. I wouldn’t count them out.
(7) Cincinnati Bearcats 24-7, 11-7
Ken Pom Offense: 55
Ken Pom Defense: 10
Ken Pom Rank: 17
Leading Scorer: Yancy Gates 11.3
Leading Rebounder: Yancy Gates 6.9
Leading Assister: Cashmere Wright 3.9
Defensive Notable: Cashmere Wright 1.4 steals, Yancy Gates 1.2 blocks
BB Thoughts: You know my thoughts on the Bearcats.
(8) Georgetown Hoyas 21-9, 10-8
Ken Pom Offense: 21
Ken Pom Defense: 50
Ken Pom Rank: 27
Leading Scorer: Austin Freeman 17.8
Leading Rebounder: Julian Vaughn 6.2
Leading Assister: Austin Freeman 2.5
Defensive Notable: Jason Clark 1.4, Julian Vaughn 2
BB Thoughts: We’ve seen the Hoyas play the Bearcats twice the last two weeks, and I don’t think we will get a third meeting. They Hoyas look lost without Chris Wright. They would play UConn Wednesday, and I don’t know if they are going to make it past the Huskies. Not only was Wright the leader of the offense, but he was one of the defensive leaders as well. They Hoyas weren’t strong defensively with him, and they aren’t good without him. They are going to have to regroup if they want an extended trip in the big apple.
(9) Connecticut Huskies 21-9, 9-9
Ken Pom Offense: 35
Ken Pom Defense: 36
Ken Pom Rank: 26
Leading Scorer: Kemba Walker 23.1
Leading Rebounder: Alex Oriakhi 8.3
Leading Assister: Kemba Walker 4.3
Defensive Notable: Kemba Walker 1.8 steals, Alex Oriakhi 1.9 blocks
BB Thoughts: The Huskies lost a chance at a bye when they lost to Notre Dame Saturday. Now, they have the early, depressing game against DePaul. The Huskies road to the quarterfinals is the softest on paper. UConn had a great showing in Maui in a tournament setting earlier this year. If they pretend it’s November, maybe they can pull off 5 in a row. Ok, that’s going a little crazy, but they have Kemba. He offers something that no one else in the Big East has, a guy who can do it all.
(10) Villanova Wildcats 21-10, 9-9
Ken Pom Offense: 20
Ken Pom Defense: 51
Ken Pom Rank: 23
Leading Scorer: Corey Fisher 15.5
Leading Rebounder: Antonio Pena 7.3
Leading Assister: Corey Fisher 4.8
Defensive Notable: Corey Fisher 1.5 steals, Mo Yarou 1 block
BB Thoughts: Villanova might be without Corey Stokes for their game tomorrow against South Florida. That just adds to the tough go the Wildcats have had lately. They started the Big East season off 4-0, before going 5-9 to close the season. They are coming in as one of the coldest teams, having lost 4 in a row. The losses were to Syracuse, St John’s, Notre Dame and Pitt, but the last 3 were by double digits. This is a team that’s not playing well at the wrong time of year to not play well. The talent is there to bounce back though. Corey Fisher is one of the best players in the Big East. Pena and Yarou are a formidable duo inside. I think if there were going to be a surprise team in the tournament, it would be Nova.
(11) Marquette Golden Eagles 18-13, 9-9
Ken Pom Offense: 14
Ken Pom Defense: 74
Ken Pom Rank: 34
Leading Scorer: Jimmy Butler 16.2
Leading Rebounder: Jae Crowder 6.9
Leading Assister: Dwight Buycks 3.9
Defensive Notable: Jimmy Butler/Jae Crowder 1.4 steals, Chris Otule 1.5 blocks
BB Thoughts: Marquette comes into the Big East tournament needing a win or two to solidify an NCAA bid. They open with a team they should beat. Of course, they ended the season with a team they should beat, Seton Hall, and had the doors blown off. Marquette hasn’t really won outside of the Bradley Center, which doesn’t seem to fair well for their chances here. They know their season is on the line, and I think they will play accordingly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them playing Thursday. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they lost today.
(12) Seton Hall Pirates 13-17, 7-11
Ken Pom Offense: 140
Ken Pom Defense: 14
Ken Pom Rank: 54
Leading Scorer: Jeremy Hazell 19.4
Leading Rebounder: Herb Pope 8
Leading Assister: Jordan Theodore 4.4
Defensive Notable: Jeremy Hazell 2.4 steals, Herb Pope 1.3 blocks
BB Thoughts: Seton Hall is coming into the Big East tournament turning some heads. They put whoopins on St John’s and Marquette their last two games. The Pirates have the very dangerous Jeremy Hazell, who can make shots from anywhere. He can also miss shots from anywhere. The Hall is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They’ve only given up more than 75 three times this season, and they’ve won 2 of them. They are an interesting team to watch. They can be very frustating if they are making shots. If they are missing, their lack of talent shows up, and they are ripe for the picking.
(13) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14-16, 5-13
Ken Pom Offense: 88
Ken Pom Defense: 87
Ken Pom Rank: 78
Leading Scorer: Jonathan Mitchell 14.2
Leading Rebounder: Dane Miller 6
Leading Assister: Mike Coburn 4
Defensive Notable: James Beatty 1.6 steals, Dane Miller 1.6 blocks
BB Thoughts: Rutgers comes into the Big East tournament pretty cold, having lost 9 of 11. The Knights have played most of those games close though. They just don’t have the talent to close. I like the direction their program is taking. They aren’t quite up to the next level, but with a couple of pieces, I think they could be a middle of the pack Big East team. That doesn’t help them much this year though.
(14) Providence Friars 15-16, 4-14
Ken Pom Offense: 67
Ken Pom Defense: 147
Ken Pom Rank: 90
Leading Scorer: Marshon Brooks 24.8
Leading Rebounder: Marshon Brooks 7.2
Leading Assister: Vincent Council 5.9
Defensive Notable: Duke Mondy 2.1 steals, Marshon Brooks 1.3 blocks
BB Thoughts: Providence doesn’t have a great shot to win the Big East tournament, but they have a shot to win a game or two just based on the fact they have Marshon Brooks. Brooks can score on anyone, and Providence can be tricky to beat. Providence can also be easy to beat, which is one of their problems. The Friars style can be a difficult one. It doesn’t seem wise to use the style they prefer in a daily tournament setting. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Friars were able to spring an upset.
(15) South Florida Bulls 9-22, 3-15
Ken Pom Offense: 177
Ken Pom Defense: 86
Ken Pom Rank: 129
Leading Scorer: Gus Gilchrist 13.2
Leading Rebounder: Gus Gilchrist 6.1
Leading Assister: Anthony Crater 4.6
Defensive Notable: Jawnaza Poland 1.1 steals
BB Thoughts: South Florida’s 3 wins came against DePaul and Providence. Unfortuantely for them, they won’t play DePaul or Providence. The Bulls can play some defense, which they will have to do if they plan on springing an upset against Villanova. I don’t see it happening though. I feel bad for their fans. They had an opportunity to make the tournament last season, but they couldn’t close against Notre Dame twice. Now, they are back at the bottom of the Big East. That can’t be fun.
(16) DePaul Blue Demons 7-23, 1-17
Ken Pom Offense: 158
Ken Pom Defense: 247
Ken Pom Rank: 199
Leading Scorer: Brandon Young 12.4
Leading Rebounder: Tony Freeland 5
Leading Assister: Brandon Young 3.7
Defensive Notable: Jeremiah Kelly 1.7 steals
BB Thoughts: DePaul barely had a shot at winning a game, and now that Cleveland Melvin is out for the season, they are playing for pride. They didn’t show up against Syracuse and lost by 48. I hope they do better.
Predictions
9 UConn v. 16 DePaul 12 PM ESPN
Yeah right, DePaul.
Connecticut 73 DePaul 54
12 Seton Hall v. 13 Rutgers 2:20ish ESPN
I think there is potential for an interesting game here. I like what Rutgers brings to the table. I think they could give the Pirates a run of their money. Hell, I think they could win. I’m going to go out on a limb and call an upset.
Rutgers 66 Seton Hall 63
10 Villanova v. 15 South Florida 7 PM ESPNU
The Wildcats may be down, but I think the Bulls are going to be the cure for what ailes them. USF will put up a fight, but I see them fading down the stretch. A noble effort, but in the end, a futile one.
Nova 76 USF 66
11 Marquette v. 14 Providence 9:20ish ESPNU
This seems like the game of the day. Providence took an absolute ass kicking at the hands of Marquette a couple weeks ago, but I think that Marquette is a different team now. The pressure on the Golden Eagles could cause them to be a little tight. That said, they should take care of business on day 1.
Quick picks for the rest of the tournament for fun.
9 UConn over 8 Georgetown
5 St John’s over 13 Rutgers
10 Villanova over 7 Cincinnati (hey, it’s late, and I’m kinda buying Nova now)
6 West Virginia over 11 Marquette
1 Pittsburgh over 9 UConn
4 Syracuse over 5 St John’s
10 Villanova over 2 Notre Dame
3 Louisville over 6 West Virginia
4 Syracuse over 1 Pittsburgh
3 Louisville over 10 Nova
3 Louisville over 4 Syracuse
Enjoy the tournament everyone.
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