It is widely known that the Cleveland Indians did not have the April that was expected of them going into the season.
It was a month that left fans and pundits scratching their heads and asking “what is wrong with the Indians?” After a week of mediocre baseball, the prudent fan resulted to the old saying “it’s early.” Project that bad baseball through the entire month of April and you get cause for concern that the team might be as bad as they are playing.
Let’s begin with the traditional “slash” stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) on offense and see where the team ranked in MLB in the month. Their .238 AVG ranked them 23rd, .302 OBP 21st and .373 SLG 20th. These are not good numbers and certainly not an improvement from where they ended last season (.253/.317/.389); all in the bottom 20 in the league.
In the off season, the front office traded for Brandon Moss in hopes that he could help the feeble offense. However, April did not serve Moss well either as he hit .238/.310/.492. His SLG was a bit deceiving as two of his four HR’s and seven of his 14 RBI’s came in one game. His .289 BABIP will likely creep up towards his mean (.298) increasing his productivity slightly as the season rolls on.
The “lack” of offense should not be alarming, however. In the first month of the season, the Indians only struck out in 17.7% of their plate appearances which means they were consistent in putting the bat on the ball; their .268 BABIP, which placed them 26th worst in the league, meant that those batted balls did not find any holes- a trend that is not likely to continue. As a matter of fact, they were 10th best in Major League Baseball hitting 22.0% of their batted balls for line-drives meaning they were making good contact and putting good swings on the ball.
The biggest disappointment last season was the lack of quality defense and the amount of errors that lead to big innings. Their -72.4 UZR along with a -9.2 UZR/150 ranked dead last in the league in 2014. To put simply, they had issues with range. This season, the Indians slightly “improved” in April to earn a -7.4 UZR. This improvement is largely due to replacing Asdrubal Cabrera at SS with Jose Ramirez and Nick Swisher at 1B with Carlos Santana, both with above league average UZR’s in ’15. The only players to record positive UZR’s in April were Moss leading the team at 3.5, Lonnie Chisenhall at 2.1 and Jason Kipnis at 1.5. Kipnis, who was bothered by an oblique strain all of last season, was expected to improve his range wit the increased movement and flexibility being healthy.
Without question, the Indians starting pitching excelled in April as was expected. Although the collective ERA among the staff was 4.88, their 3.18 FIP and 3.08 xFIP showed that with an improved defense with better range, the starting five would become dominate. They struck out 10.33 BA/9 in April, tops in Major League Baseball. Four of the five starters struck out more than 10 BA/9 with Corey Kluber striking out 9.53 BA/9. The staff allowed less than one HR/9, also the best in baseball.
The Indians can improve the infield defense immediately by calling Francisco Lindor up from Columbus and moving Ramirez over to second. This would increase range up the middle and lower the staff ERA moving forward.
The bullpen has struggled a little more than the starting five. Even with a lower ERA of 4.03, their FIP (3.87) and xFIP (3.70) were much higher than that of the rotation indicating that batters are hitting the ball harder off them. A .322 BABIP is higher than you would like see from the bullpen, as they tend to come in late in the game with the score close- a time when base runners reach at a premium price. An alarming stat is that they are walking nearly 4 BA/9, up from only two BA/9 from last season.
What is causing the lack of command?
It could be any number of issues. My guess is that it’s was the high workload put forth from the bullpen last season and it’s continued use in April. Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw‘s fastball velocity is down from last season, causing concern as to how much of a max effort they can give the rest of this season.
There is still a long way to go in the 2015 campaign. They Indians have the starting pitching to compete in the division going forward.
Will the rest of the team come around?
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