As a teacher I hear all kinds of excuses, from both students and parents. In all honesty, I’ve never heard “my dog ate my homework” but printer woes (from running out of ink to malfunctions) as well as “I left it on the kitchen table” are a dime a dozen. There is no need for a polygraph machine, you know who is lying almost before they even begin to tell their ‘story’ of misfortune to you. It can be in the way they sheepishly try to compose themselves to look pathetic enough to tell their sordid tale. Or it can be in the way you see them attempting to remember the line of crap they had rehearsed in their minds a few moments before as they realized they needed to have some excuse to explain why their assignment wasn’t finished. Kids think they can snow their teachers because sadly it probably worked in the past. Yet, I’d like to think I’m too smart for that. You may be thinking, well ask them to prove it with a note from their parents. Sadly, parents often lie for their students so its tough to trust explanations like that. Sometimes, the parents will even attempt to justify their kids’ misbehavior on something you did to somehow prompt their misdeed. So what do you do? That’s the tough part. You can fight it and risk an risk a bit of a confrontation with a parent (who almost never hesitates to run to an administrator) or you can hope you call the students’ bluff and the kid accepts their false excuse has been exposed for the fraud that it is.
That being said, I wonder if that’s what the National Hockey League is thinking of the City of Vancouver placing much of the blame for the Game 7 Stanley Cup riots on the league. If I was Gary Bettman and the NHL I’d have a hard time keeping a straight face as Vancouver made its claims. Even Yahoo!’s Puck Daddy saw through Vancouver’s excuses which you can read here. Vancouver says that the NHL should’ve done more to prevent the riots from happening in the first place. Nevermind the fact that the NHL did not put on any of the events happening outside of the arena pertaining to the game, the City of Vancouver feels the NHL should take some of the blame of violence and property destruction but such is the lack of personal accountability in our society. So with Vancouver whining that the riots were not their fault, how will the 2011-12 season shake out for the Northwest Division?
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We will place the teams of the division in the order we think they will finish. So let’s begin!
1. Vancouver Canucks ~ 2010-11 Stats: (54-19-9) 117pts 3.15 Goals per game (1st) 2.20 Goals per Game (1st) 24.3% Power Play (1st) 85.6% Penalty Kill (3rd)
Departures: (D) Christian Ehrhoff, (LW) Raffi Torres, (LW) Tanner Glass, (LW) Jeff Tambellini
Arrivals: (LW) Marco Sturm, (LW) Andrew Ebbett
Forwards: Despite the fact they came up short in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final there is a strong chance the Canucks could find themselves back in the title game for a 2nd straight season. With virtually all of their offensive workhorses returning for another season and virtually all of its core locked up for the near future the Canucks built themselves with the idea of being a perennial Cup contender. Daniel Sedin and Ryan Kesler really lit the lamp in a big way, and Henrik Sedin was content to be his brother’s set up man so its ironic that it was the failure of these 3 players to find the twine in the finals that really doomed Vancouver to failure. Feisty Alexandre Burrows had his moments in the playoffs (even when he wasn’t biting fingers), but ideally Vancouver needs to have some more offense from Mikael Samuelsson and Mason Raymond. Marco Sturm brings some much needed experience but he has struggled to stay healthy. Canucks fans have thrown much of that blame on goaltender Roberto Luongo, but that really ignores the offensive woes of Vancouver who simply couldn’t muster enough goals against some ridiculously good goaltending by Tim Thomas and rugged play by the Bruins’ blueline. However it won’t be easy; as much as there can be a ‘hangover’ for the Stanley Cup winner the losing team often finds itself struggling to deal with the fact they came up short. The Canucks lost a little grit with the departures of Raffi Torres and Tanner Glass, which is interesting since in many ways that too was a factor in the Bruins’ victory as they were more physical which really seemed to take the Sedins and their cycling game out of the series. If anything, you’d think Vancouver would’ve wanted to add a bit more sandpaper to its lineup.
Defense: On the blueline, the Canucks were worn down and Boston was apt to take every chance to go after banged up defenseman Alexander Edler. Edler, along with Dan Hamhuis, Aaron Rome, and Kevin Bieksa who had a nice bounceback season will return to make one of the most complete defensive cores in all of the NHL. The Canucks will miss some of the offense that was lost with Christian Ehrhoff‘s exodus to Buffalo, but for the most part their blueline still presents a formidable obstacle for any opponent. Former Golden Gopher and somewhat forgotten cog Keith Ballard, or Chris Tanev as well as another young defenseman in Chris Connauton might be asked to pick up some of that offensive slack left by Ehrhoff’s departure.
Goaltending: As I stated earlier, Roberto Luongo got a fair amount of blame for the Canucks’ Stanley Cup failure. Luongo can be inconsistant, but he still was able to guide his team to within one game of a championship and while close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades that is no small feat either. The Montreal-native will likely have more opportunities he can be a Stanley Cup winning goaltender in the next few years but patience will always be very slight in Vancouver. Behind Luongo is a very capable backup in Cory Schneider who still may be a nice tradable asset since it looks like the #1 job is Luongo’s for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: 1st in NW, I think this season will really test the Canucks mentally and emotionally. Losing a Stanley Cup sucks and while core pieces of the Canucks are locked into place, they seem to have great synergy but it will be interesting to see if that loss haunts them a bit to start the 2011-12 season. I could see the Canucks back in the Stanley Cup Finals but I just as easily could see their hopes dashed in the 1st round.
2. Minnesota Wild ~ 2010-11 Stats: (39-35-8) 86pts 2.48 Goals per game (26th) 2.78 Goals against per game (16th) 18.2% Power Play (13th) 82.8% Penalty Kill (14th)
Departures: (RW) Martin Havlat, (D) Brent Burns, (LW) Andrew Brunette, (RW) Antti Miettinen, (G) Jose Theodore, (D) Cam Barker, (RW) Chuck Kobasew, (C) John Madden
Arrivals: (RW) Dany Heatley, (RW) Devin Setoguchi, (C) Darroll Powe, (D) Mike Lundin
Forwards: In many ways I have to admit I feel like I’m making a bit of a homer pick here. Coming out of the 2010-11 season, the Wild had two glaring needs out of its roster. 1. Needed more goals, 2. Needed more speed. The team sort of addressed both with the additions of snipers Dany Heatley, Devin Setoguchi and Darroll Powe. For the naysayers, they point to declining production of Heatley who had a sub-par season by his standards with 26 tallies to his credit which still would’ve led the Wild in goal scoring last season. Some experts claim that as evidence that he’s lost a step and that Minnesota acquired a ‘dry well’ when they acquired the former Badger scoring star for the enigmatic Martin Havlat. Even a sub-par Heatley scores more than an improved Havlat, so for myself its tough to see Heatley’s addition as anything but a boost. The Wild also improved the overall speed of its lineup with Setoguchi and Powe as they replaced slower veterans like Andrew Brunette and John Madden. While not an addition, Guillaume Latendresse returns from the offseason in shape and gives the club another option as a shooter. Combine Latendresse’s return with a full-season for Pierre-Marc Bouchard (who played fairly well after sitting out a year with a concussion) and many in the State of Hockey think it could very well be the best overall attack the Wild has dressed since the departures of Brian Rolston and Marian Gaborik. Team captain Mikko Koivu will have at least one quality shooter to work with, which will be a welcome change of pace over his previous linemates who were limited in terms of speed and consistency. The Wild also look younger and more gritty in their bottom two lines with Powe joining Cal Clutterbuck who could be one of the top hitting tandems at forward in the league. Veteran Matt Cullen is the elder statesman of the Wild forward group at just 34 and many are hoping he can find ways to contribute from a spot on the 2nd or 3rd lines. The last few years the Wild have based a lot of their ‘hopes’ on overly optimistic projections of their forwards to have career years. That doesn’t seem quite as necessary in order for the Wild to improve and that can only be a good thing for the offensively deprived (historically speaking) Wild. New coach Mike Yeo, loves an up-tempo, aggressive forechecking game that produces a ton of shots on goal which also marks a massive change of direction for the team which was last in shots on goal. Logic would make one think that more shots should equate to more goals.
Defense: The main reason that magazines like the Hockey News are predicting another season of disappointment (11th in the Western Conference) is in the team’s departures along its blueline, most notably the trade of Brent Burns to the San Jose Sharks. No one, not even this writer believes that the Wild will simply be able to replace Brent Burns in terms of his offensive production or ability to start a rush on his own. While Burns had his best season in a Wild uniform statistically, his numbers are a bit deceptive since most of it came during the 1st half of the season. Burns did seem to find that balance between offense and defense but his play slid a bit towards the latter half of the season, and at times he began to make some of the irresponsible plays that marred his previous two seasons. The Wild are hoping Marek Zidlicky, who spent much of the season hurt last year can rebound to pick up some of that slack offensively. Zidlicky had a solid World Championships and certainly is very mobile but some wonder if his defensive play is strong enough to handle the extra minutes he’s likely going to receive. Nick Schultz returns as well as defensive stalwarts Greg Zanon (whose game I thought slipped a bit last season) and Clayton Stoner to really be the backbone of the team defensively. Jared Spurgeon was the surprise of 2010-11 season, and will compete for one of the final spots available on the Wild blueline, and while he will never be mistaken for a physical force his high hockey IQ and poise may make him a logical replacement on the power play for the puck moving abilities of Burns. Spurgeon was an offensive defenseman in junior and towards the end of the season demonstrated he could light the lamp a bit. With Burns being gone, do not be surprised to see Spurgeon get the green light to take more chances shooting the puck. Another possibility in that role is Apple Valley, Minnesota-native Mike Lundin who was signed as a free agent. Like Spurgeon, Lundin does not play a flashy game but is a great skater and is noted for his coolness under pressure. Toss into this potential mix; Marco Scandella, Nate Prosser, and Justin Falk or if Yeo wants a little more edge to his defense don’t rule out Drew Bagnall who has been a loyal soldier down in Houston.
Goaltending: Niklas Backstrom still hasn’t found his near-Vezina Trophy like form from 2008-09 but he was far more consistent in 2010-11 due in part to less risky play by the team in front of him. Backstrom did not have to face a barrage of 2-on-1’s as he did in his first campaign under Todd Richards. Josh Harding will return as Backstrom’s back up after missing an entire season after blowing out his ACL and MCL in a pre-season game against St. Louis. Its important for Harding to do well for his own NHL future as well as the Wild since the 15-20 starts he may get and the relative success he has / doesn’t have could be the difference between making the playoffs and setting tee times for early April.
Prediction: I am going to hedge my bet on this one. The Wild could finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th. If the offense arrives as is possible this team could be a strong 2nd place finisher in the division but if injuries occur to 1-2 members of the Top 6 this team will likely miss the post-season for a 4th straight season. The team will be faster as a group and possess a bit more of an edge which should make the Wild tougher to play against. Some see the team’s revamped defense as a possible failing but a nice side effect of Mike Yeo’s system is that you spend so much time on the attack you give your opponents precious few chances in your own end.
3. Calgary Flames ~ 2010-11 Stats: (41-29-12) 94pts 2.94 Goals For per game (7th) 2.80 Goals Against per game (19th) 19.5% Power Play (8th) 81.2% Penalty Kill (21st)
Departures: (D) Robyn Regehr, (D) Adam Pardy, (LW) Fredrik Modin, (RW) Ales Kotalik, (D) Tim Erixon, (C) Daymond Langkow
Arrivals: (RW) Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, (D) Chris Butler
Forwards: Most NHL fans were probably as surprised as I was that the Calgary Flames were the 7th highest scoring team in the league. How did they do it? With a scoring by committee approach that included big contributions from veterans Jarome Iginla (43), Alex Tanguay (22), Rene Bourque (27) and a surprising season from Curtis Glencross (27). Olli Jokinen and David Moss each chipped home 17 goals themselves and all of the Flames forwards will need to put up similar numbers if they’re to surge the way they did during the 2nd half of last season. The Flames have some good sandpaper and former Minnesota State: Mankato stud Tim Jackman gives Calgary a little skill and some good toughness. This forward group is not getting any younger but Mikael Backlund will be looked to have a breakout season. The Flames cannot afford to have any sub-par seasons and that will put a ton of pressure on the Flames’ Top 6.
Defenseman: On the blueline the Flames did some significant overhauling dispatching steady stay-at-home Robyn Regehr and trading him to Buffalo for Chris Butler. Butler is much younger but is probably best suited to playing on the 3rd pair. Leading the Flames’ blueline is Jay Bouwmeester and Mark Giordano who continues to be the league’s most unsung defenseman. Anton Babchuk provided a big point shot that was sorely needed on the power play. Babchuk, Giordano, Bouwmeester combined for 23 goals. The Flames defense was inconsistent due large in part to a rash of injuries they suffered last season and a big reason Calgary gave up nearly 3 goals per game.
Goaltenders: The Flames will again be relying on Miikka Kiprusoff between the pipes. Normally this would not seem like an area of concern, but Kiprusoff’s game has been a steady decline the last few seasons. He’s struggled with consistency and even when the Flames are scoring well, a bad game by ‘Kipper’ can kill any chance Calgary had to win the game. This may mean Calgary will try to give his backup, Henrik Karlsson some more starts in order to keep Kiprusoff fresh.
Prediction: 3rd in the Northwest with a small caveat. If this team can have a similar committee-like performance from its forwards this team could very well finish in 2nd in the division, but if any player of that group takes a step back then this team will finish in 3rd. While I think Iginla certainly has it within him to score 43 goals again, but I am doubtful that Glencross, Moss and some of the other secondary scorers will be able to replicate 2010-11’s production.
4. Colorado Avalanche ~ 2010-11 Stats: (30-44-8) 68pts 2.70 Goals For per game (18th) 3.50 Goals Against per game (11th) 18.5% Power Play (11th) 76.1% Penalty Kill (30th)
Departures: (G) Brian Elliott, (D) John-Micheal Liles, (LW) Tomas Fleischmann, (D) Adam Foote, (G) Peter Budaj, (C) Phillippe Dupuis
Arrivals: (G) Semyon Varlamov, (G) Jean-Sebastien Giguere, (LW) Gabriel Landeskog, (RW) Joakim Lindstrom, (RW) Chuck Kobasew, (D) Jan Hejda, (D) Shane O’Brien
Forwards: The Avalanche had another fast start in 2010-11 to only watch the ‘A-train’ come off the tracks when then Colorado forward Chris Stewart decided to fight the Wild’s Kyle Brodziak resulting in a broken hand. The injury deprived the Avalanche of one of their most potent scoring threats and the fortunes of the team turned; so much in fact the team decided to trade Stewart and promising young defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk for former 1st Overall pick Erik Johnson and Jay McClement. McClement is a 3rd or 4th line grinder and so that has left Colorado trying to fill the offensive void created by Stewart’s departure. Veterans Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk lead a very young group of forwards into the 2011-12 season but could certainly use some help. Matt Duchene led the Avalanche in scoring in just his 2nd NHL season and continues to showcase outstanding playmaking skills, while journeyman David Jones surprised with a breakout season of 27 goals. The Avalanche had a plethora of players in the 11-15 goal range with Brandon Yip, Ryan O’Reilly, Kevin Porter, and Daniel Winnik but these are not the type of players a team can really rely on to light the lamp with any regularity so thus scoring will likely be an area of concern for Colorado. Joe Sacco‘s club has lots of speed and ability to use their skating to create odd-man chances but it will be the club’s ability to finish those chances that will determine whether they’re contenders or pretenders. Rookie Gabriel Landeskog will be given every chance to fill in a spot on the top 2 lines. As a junior player Landeskog plays a very complete game even though his statistics were not out of this world; many experts explained he could’ve had much bigger numbers if he had chosen to ignore his defensive responsibilities so the potential for being an elite finisher could very well be there. In addition the Avalanche are hoping former Columbus Blue Jacket Joakim Lindstrom can build from the confidence he gained from returning to his native Sweden and prove that his NHL potential is real and not just on paper. Another name to toss out there to watch is former Golden Gopher Ryan Stoa. Stoa got a few call ups last season and did not look all that out of place, and while he lacks experience he brings a power forward-type body and a scorers mentality that may see him placed into a more prominent role, especially on the power play which was an area of strength for Colorado last year.
Defenseman: The Avalanche took bold steps to transform its blueline, partly out of necessity with the retirement of veteran Adam Foote, but as well as shipping out some of their more experienced blueliners in the trading of John-Michael Liles. Colorado replaced Foote and Liles with Jan Hejda, a mobile stay-at-home type of defenseman and the phyiscal Shane O’Brien who offers up some of the sandpaper that was lost by Foote’s retirement. It will also mark the first full season with Erik Johnson in a prominent role as Colorado’s leader on the blueline. Johnson has some great skills and physical gifts but he must find a way to stay healthy because he’s Avalanche Colorado’s only true two-way defenseman. The team will also hope that Kyle Quincey can rebound after an injury-plagued season. Another name to consider is former Michigan Wolverine Matt Hunwick. Hunwick was a late season trade, but he is mobile and has shown some offensive pinache to his game but he will need to demonstrate some consistency or he will be relegated to a niche role on the power play. The Avs do have some promising young blueliners like Tyson Barrie, Cameron Gaunce and Stefan Elliot in its system but its unlikely they will make the team out of training camp. This group as a whole must perform better if Colorado is to have a chance at making the playoffs, because if it goes another season giving up 3.5 goals per game they will be in line for a lottery pick for a 2nd straight year.
Goaltenders: No other place in Colorado’s lineup saw more change than at goal. The Avalanche pulled off a controversial trade by trading a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick to the Washington Capitals for enigmatic goaltender Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov has shown some tremendous potential but could not find enough consistency to stay as the Capitals’ #1 goaltender and eventually lost his job to Michael Neuwirth. Colorado is obviously banking on Varlamov to be the source of strength between the pipes the team for the long term that the team hasn’t had since Patrick Roy. Craig Anderson was shipped to Ottawa late last season after having an erratic season after his breakout year in 2009-10, as was the case with Peter Budaj who could not seize the opportunity created by Anderson’s play to be the backup hero so he was allowed to walk as well. The Avalanche were not impressed by Brian Elliott who they recieved in the Anderson trade and parted ways rather uneventfully; so that meant the Avalanche had a void at backup to fill so they brought in veteran Jean-Sebastien Giguere who seemed lost amid a crazy goalie shuffle in Toronto. Giguere is not the same wall that he used to be when he helped lead the Anaheim Ducks to a Stanley Cup, but he has loads of experience and will no doubt serve as a valuable mentor to Varlamov. Colorado must have solid goaltending, since its relatively young defense is likely to be mistake-prone. Can Varlmov win games when he isn’t on a scoring juggernaut? We shall soon find out.
Prediction: 4th in the Northwest, even though the Hockey News believes Colorado will be in the playoffs this season. I do not trust Colorado’s scoring up front, nor do I believe Erik Johnson will be able to provide enough stability at both ends of the ice to help the attack and bail out Varlamov who will be seeing far more shots than he ever has faced before. Unproven starting goaltender, suspect defense and scoring depth concerns do not make me feel this team will be in the post-season. I know experts will say expectations were low two years ago when they surprised everyone by making it into the post-season and while that certainly was true the Avalanche wasn’t surprising anyone last year and I doubt opponents will overlook them either.
5. Edmonton Oilers ~ 2010-11 Stats: (25-45-12) 62pts 2.33 Goals For per game (27th) 3.17 Goals Against per game (29th) 14.5% Power Play (27th) 77% (29th)
Departures: (D) Kurtis Foster, (LW) Jean-Francois Jacques, (D) Jim Vandermeer, (C) Andrew Cogliano, (C) Colin Fraser, (D) Sheldon Souray, (LW) Steve MacIntyre
Arrivals: (LW) Ryan Smyth, (C) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, (C) Eric Belanger, (D) Andy Sutton, (C) Cam Barker
Forwards: As has been the case the last few seasons in league’s northern most market, there will be lots of new faces skating for the Oilers this year. The team continues to get younger, and has leaned more heavily on its young players to play in important roles. However it will not be all rookies and 2nd year players leading the offensive attack, as Edmonton brought back fan favorite Ryan Smyth. Smyth should be able to provide leadership apart from his signature pesky play near the opposing crease. He will mentor youngsters Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi who all had respectable first seasons. The Oilers are also hoping that playmaking center Ales Hemsky can manage to stay more healthy than the 47 games he played last season. Hemsky still does not shoot as much as Edmonton would like but he is a crucial component of the Oilers’ offense and if this team is to climb out of the league’s basement he will have to have a solid and productive season. At $5.5 million per season and just 27 points last season to his credit, Shawn Horcoff is easily one of the most overpaid forwards in the NHL and the ugly fact is that he’s under contract for another 3 seasons. The Oilers added more toughness to its lineup in the offseason, signing Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk who will prevent opposing teams from taking advantage of their younger players as well as adding 3rd line grinder and faceoff ace Eric Belanger. The Oilers’ forwards are the team’s biggest strength and their continued development is really what will determine if all these years of being at the bottom was worth it.
Defenseman: Defensively the Oilers finally were able to rid themselves of the Sheldon Souray debacle after burying him in the AHL last season. The Oilers added two former Wild defenseman in Andy Sutton and Cam Barker. The team’s best returning defenseman is Ryan Whitney, who was off to a tremendous start scoring 27 points in just 35 games before succumbing to an ankle injury that required surgery. Tom Gilbert must rebound after a let down in 2010-11 where he managed just 6 goals and 26 points. Gilbert has some ok offensive skills and reasonable mobility but too many times he looked lost in his own zone and at a cap hit of $4 million per season he shouldn’t be a liability. Taylor Chorney, Ladislav Smid and the rugged but penalty prone Theo Peckham round out the Oilers’ blueline. This group must peform better and be more disciplined to not put a suspect penalty kill out on the ice more than it has to be.
Goaltender: The Oilers continue to have question marks between the pipes, and almost by default veteran Nikolai Khabibulin will be the team’s #1 goaltender. Khabibulin can show flashes of his dominance between the crease but at times he appears to be going through the motions. At this point though, the Oilers don’t really have a lot of options. Backing up the ‘Bulin Wall is 6’6″ goaltender Devan Dubnyk. Goaltending must be better if the Oilers are going to have a chance to surprise.
Prediction: 5th in the Northwest, and really if the Oilers do any better than 15th in the Western Conference I think it will be a big surprise. I do believe the Oilers will be improved and may serve as a pretty nasty spoiler but I don’t think they have enough going for them to make a run to the playoffs.
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