Indianapolis: Can the Colts fix their running game?
It’s hard to find flaws on a team that went 16-1 in meaningful games last year, but the 2009 Colts had one obvious weakness: They couldn’t run the ball for squat, finishing with only 1,294 rushing yards and 69 first downs on the ground, both the lowest figures in the league. That’s largely because they didn’t rush very often — they ended up with 366 carries, one more than Arizona and less than anyone else — but the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders show this was still the biggest hole on the team. The Colts offense finished 22nd in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures value on a per-carry basis).
The problem was not with Joseph Addai, who was 17th out of 50 individual running backs in DVOA. Instead, it was with backup runners Donald Brown and Mike Hart, who would have ranked 44th and 46th in DVOA if they had garnered enough carries to qualify for the leader board.
The offensive line deserves some of the blame too. The Colts ranked 25th in Adjusted Line Yards, Football Outsiders’ metric that attempts to separate the performance of an offensive line from its running backs. While center Jeff Saturday is still excellent, his linemates are subpar. The Colts were eighth in ALY in runs up the middle, but no higher than 19th in any other direction. Injuries had little to do with the line’s performance — the starters combined to miss 16 games, which is about average for most teams.
It’s doubtful that an impact offensive lineman will be available when the Colts pick 31st in the first round of April’s draft, but there should be some good talent at running back, possibly including Jahvid Best out of California. Or the Colts could cross their fingers and hope that Donald Brown takes a giant step forward in his sophomore season. Either way, there about 30 other teams who wish their biggest offensive problem entering 2010 was “backup running back.”
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