We can all pretty much agree on one thing when it comes to the Houston Astros – their complete teardown and rebuild was brutal. However, after watching them morph from a 100-loss team to an 86-win playoff bound one in the matter of a couple years, it was definitely worth it.
Equipped with a young core and reinforcing the pitching staff with hurlers like Doug Fister and Ken Giles, the expectations grew even more for 2016. They were not only expected to return to October, but also get past the ALDS and take that next step toward a championship.
Fast forward to the middle of May, and the Astros are easily baseball’s biggest disappointment throughout the season’s first month and a half. Entering action on Tuesday, they’re in last place with a 16-24 record and are seven games back of first in the AL West.
During their breakout 2015 campaign, they were dependent on hitting home runs (second in MLB with 230) and pitching well (3.57 team ERA and 1.20 WHIP were both top-six in baseball).
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While players like Carlos Gomez and Luis Valbuena haven’t helped much in the power department, the Astros aren’t doing that badly as a team on offense. Their collective .233 batting average is tied for second-worst, but they’re still managing a .732 OPS (15th in baseball), have the sixth-most home runs (51) and are tied for 12th in runs scored (172).
Expected run producers like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Colby Rasmus are doing their job, but it’s the pitching staff that’s really sputtered, and it starts at the top.
Reigning AL Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, is supposed to be leading the charge, but has scuffled to a 5.43 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, along with a decrease in fastball velocity (89.6 mph in ’15, 88.1 mph so far in ’16).
The biggest problem is that those struggles have trickled down to the rest of the rotation, as their collective 5.06 ERA ranks 25th in the league. The bullpen also hasn’t been that great – they’ve posted a 3.98 ERA with four different relievers sporting an ERA north of 4.00 (that includes Giles, who is the biggest disappointment of all so far at 6.89).
So, when the rotation is actually able to deliver a lead to the bullpen, it’s hard for them to hold onto it. That’s probably part of the reason why they haven’t won three games in a row yet this year and have only been victorious in consecutive games on two different occasions.
They’ve been bad, but it’s not even Memorial Day yet… they can still turn it around, right? Absolutely, but this slow start has dragged on long enough that they’ve dug themselves into quite a hole:
#Astros have to go 71-52 rest of season just to reach 2015 win total of 86.
— Brian T. Smith (@BTSmithUK) May 16, 2016
This tweet is a few days old now, but it still gets the point across. Saying, “Eh, it’s still early, we’ve got time,” is out the window, and the Astros are very aware they’re at a crossroads when it comes to saving their season.
The next week of games will be awfully important, especially considering the competition they’ll be facing. After winning 6-5 in extra innings Tuesday night, there are still two more games to play against the first-place Chicago White Sox at US Cellular Field. Then, it’s back home for an important homestand against the second-place Texas Rangers, followed by the first-place Baltimore Orioles.
Are the Astros a team ready to contend for a playoff spot this October, or will they continue to be a major disappointment?
We won’t officially know that answer for another few months, but this current nine-game stretch is a good barometer to find out which route they plan on heading down this season. The coaching staff and front office are well aware of how important each game has become, which is why they’ve made a number of moves to shake up the roster.
Here’s a quick look at what they’ve done since May 16:
- Optioned Preston Tucker to the minors.
- Designated Erik Kratz and Asher Wojciechowski for assignment.
- Placed Carlos Gomez on the 15-day disabled list with a bruised left rib cage.
- Recalled Evan Gattis from the minors after he got some reps in at catcher.
- Promoted prospects Colin Moran and Tony Kemp.
Are they looking for players like Moran and Kemp to inject a little energy? You bet they are – calling up Correa last year had that kind of impact on the roster, so it definitely can’t hurt to try again.
As frustrating as this start has been, it could’ve been even worse if it wasn’t for Altuve. Manager A.J. Hinch probably thanks his lucky stars each day he gets to slot him into the leadoff spot, as his second baseman is currently slashing a ridiculous .338/.427/.618.
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He set career highs in homers (15), RBI (66) and runs scored (86) in 2015, but he’s already on track to blow past those numbers pretty easily this year (he currently has nine homers, 24 RBI and 37 runs scored). So, everyone in the organization is thankful he’s around to set the offensive tone at the top of the order.
There have been lots of changes going on in the clubhouse, but this is the best time for it all to take place. Houston is in the AL West basement, but the deficit is only seven games, which is far from insurmountable at this point. Plus, the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels are each under .500 as well, which should help Houston make up some ground within the division if they can take care of business in those head-to-head matchups.
Winning is good, but winning against top teams is a better confidence-builder for a squad with a long road ahead of them like the Astros. Before we figure out if they’re better than what they’ve done so far, we need to sit back and watch how Houston performs during this important nine-game stretch.
It got off to a good start on Tuesday by beating Chicago in their series opener. Now they’ll have to do something that’s eluded them thus far in 2016 – winning consistently.
All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and are current as of 5/18/16.
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