Is Michael Brantley the Next Joe Sewell?

Continuing on with an unplanned series comparing the players of today to the greats of the past in one small aspect, the time has come for the Indians All-Star and Silver Slugger, starting left fielder Michael Brantley. In the first two editions, I discussed whether Corey Kluber could pull a Luis Tiant and if Danny Salazar could be what Herb Score could have been had he not be devastatingly injured. This time, we’ll be looking at the strike out rates of one of the greatest baseball players ever and another who could be.

For those who don’t know, Joe Sewell was the slick fielding short stop who took over for Ray Chapman after he was killed by a pitch thrown by Carl Mays and helped lead the Indians to their first World Series in 1920 at the age of 21. While he didn’t hit much for power, Sewell was a great top of the lineup hitter, batting .312 for his career with 436 doubles in his 14 year career. For his efforts, Sewell was inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame by the veteran’s committee in 1977.

Rather than looking at their all around games, the point of interest between Joe Sewell and Michael Brantley is their strike out rates. Sewell lead the American League in at bats per strike out each season from 1925 through 1933, ultimately leaving him second in Major League Baseball history in the number with 62.56 at bats between each K, behind only Wee Willy Keeler, who played from 1892 to 1910.

To begin, there’s no way Brantley, or any other hitter, could ever be as good as Sewell was for an entire career. Although he played beyond the deadball era, Sewell played in an age of extremely decreased competition. Not only were black players not allowed to participate, there were no Japanese, Venezuelan, Korean or Australian players in the Majors and outside of a very limited number of examples, there were no Caribbean islanders. What this means is that the disparity between the best players and the worst was at a near all-time high. Because of that situation, the best hitters were able to put up some ridiculous numbers, such as Shoeless Joe Jackson‘s Indians record of a .408 single season and .375 career batting average. Near 100 years after Sewell played, no one will ever average more than 60 at bats between strike outs again.

This should not, however, take away from what Brantley is doing. Of the current roster, seven players (with at least 300 at bats to qualify) have averaged less than five at bats per strike out in their Indians career (Nick Swisher is the worst at 3.64 AB/K). Brantley, on the other hand, has averaged 8.46. While there are well over 100 former Indians who can beat this career average, he has consistently improved since beginning his career and for 2015, now sits at 18.7 at bats per strike out (the full break down can be seen at right).

Now, for a career, this is a much more impressive number that would land him in the top 20 all time. The top recent qualifying Indians player in career AB/K is Casey Kotchman, who held a 9.45, making Brantley’s recent success even more impressive. The names nearer the top are generally the greats in Indians history (like Lou Boudreau), or those who didn’t stick around very long, like George Burns. For single season marks, since 1979 only Tony Gwynn has been able to break into the top 500 in MLB history, sitting at 470th for his 1995 campaign where he went 35.67 at bats between strike outs.

Suffice it to say, Brantley isn’t going to hit Sewell record numbers, but what he is doing is still impressive. The question remains, how is he setting himself apart from the rest of the lineup and the rest of the league (he currently leads the league with four more AB/K than Melky Cabrera and he finished in the top three in both 2012 and 2014). To begin, let’s look at the most basic of charts, his career swing map:

If you were wondering whether or not Brantley was aware of the strike zone, this should make it clear. In every zone within the strike zone, he swings at least 50% of the time (his least favorite spot is high and away) and in no place outside of the zone does he swing more than 40% of the time (his favorite spot here is low and on the outer half of the plate). Even Carlos Santana‘s strike zone isn’t so clearly marked. Moving deeper, one thing Brantley has changed over the years is his tendency to swing at breaking balls. Essentially, he doesn’t have one.

We’ve seen how he has improved year-by-year and this may be part of the answer. Outside of the 2014 outliar, Brantley has ignored breaking pitches more and more. While a hanging slider or curve can lead to a lucky home run once in awhile, Brantley has become a much more consistent hitter by looking dead red and focusing on those pitches which don’t move as much. The chart below shows why.

While Brantley doesn’t swing and miss often, when he does, it is at breaking and off-speed pitches. Over his career, he has steadily contacted fast balls at a rate above 93% of swings, but he has not been so lucky against the slow stuff. Of course, he is still better than average against these pitches as well. For example, Santana has swung and missed at 35% of off-speed pitches and 11% of both breaking and fast balls this year.

Brantley appears to have stumbled onto a formula that works; don’t swing at breaking balls unless you really want to, don’t swing at pitches out of the strike zone, so they have to throw you fast balls within the zone and do get a hit on almost every pitch thrown to you. Take a look at this final chart to see what is happening when Brantley is not striking out.

The above chart is for his entire career, but it is not disimilar to the one for 2015. Go ahead and pitch Brantley inside. He will take it. He has only finished five at bats this season on a ball that was out of the strike zone high or inside. Throw it anywhere else and you better hope you have a really good defense behind you. The reason Brantley is able to be so patient against breaking balls is because he can hit any pitch in any zone when he really has to. With nearing six years of data behind it, that chart is becoming more and more significant. Keep trying American League pitchers, but you aren’t going to get anything by Brantley.

Thanks as always, to BrooksBaseball, fangraphs and baseball-reference for the numbers that would otherwise be impossible to find.