Lindor & the Predictive Nature of AAA Performances on Future Results

While it is almost certainly the super 2 deadline that has kept Francisco Lindor in AAA longer than necessary, there have been some claiming that his current numbers at that level are further proof that he still belongs there. While not a true predictor, the Indians do have some idea how the offensive numbers of a AAA batter will translate at the Major League level as six players on the current roster recently made the transition from Columbus.

The chart to the right shows all the current members of the 25 man roster who came up through the Indians farm system (at least the AAA level), how they played in their final season in Columbus before being promoted and how they played once being promoted (Jose Ramirez played just 15 games in Cleveland in 2013, so his numbers from 2014 are used instead).

To begin, none of the players listed, even top prospects like Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall, made their debuts as early in the season as we would like Lindor to. Even with a powerful, switch hitting catcher and a terrible team at the Major League level, the Indians were able to wait until mid-June in 2010 to promote Santana. This was the earliest in the season for any of those listed, including Perez who was the only player brought up out of need rather than because he was a top prospect.

Straight down the line, every player had slightly reduced numbers in his slash line except for Michael Brantley, who has always been an exceptional hitter. That is something Lindor is not. At least not yet.

Combined, this group of (relatively) recent promotions saw a 5% decrease in average, 12% decrease in OBP, 13% decrease in slugging percent and a 1% decrease in fielding percent (obviously fielding percentage is not the most accurate defensive metric, but it is the best available at AAA) from their AAA numbers to the Majors. These decreases aren’t much, but they are slightly significant since each player has seen similar issues. A decrease in both one base and slugging percent larger than the decrease in average makes sense as minor league call-ups are not as comfortable at the plate and are often more aggressive.

Using the expected changes listed above, we get a slight look at what Lindor could be bringing to the Major League team even with his below average expectations in Columbus. Compared to the current starting short stop, Jose Ramirez (.184/.226/.253, .936 FLD%), those numbers would be an incredible improvement. Taking into consideration Lindor’s career minor league line of .276/.355/.380, more could be expected of Lindor at the plate at the Major League level than he is currently producing at AAA.

Of late, Lindor has been heating up, pushing those 2015 numbers closer to his career averages. Since May 8th, he has a six game hitting streak with nine total hits, raising his average from .235 to .262. In addition, he has walked eight times since May 2nd, compared to just 14 walks over the first 21 games. Lindor has always played excellent defense and stolen bases, now he is getting hits and walks at a more consistent pace as well.

Always a top prospect, Lindor has been invited to the Future’s Game and Mid-Season All-Star Game in each of his three full minor league seasons and has been included in Major League Baseball’s top 20 prospects by Baseball Prospectus every year since 2011, the top ten since 2012. Ranked fourth this year (by MLB.com as well as BP), Lindor has already seen promotions around him on the list with the Cubs recalling both the number two prospect, Addison Russell, and the number five, Kris Bryant. For the Mets, the number nine prospect, Noah Syndergaard along with others in the top 20 including Blake Swihart (#17) of the Red Sox and Jorge Soler (#19) of the Cubs have been promoted as well.

Lindor has already passed the point where he will still be under team control through 2021, they are now waiting to make sure he only gets three years of arbitration instead of four by avoiding Super Two status. As mentioned above, they have avoided Super Two with all the recently promoted players by keeping them down well into June at the minimum, but afterward each of the players promoted before 2013 has been signed to a long term deal. While Super Two status may effect a few dollars in the negotiations for a long term signing, the Indians tendency to sign big players early in their team control (as they did with Corey Kluber this off-season and Yan Gomes last) makes most arbitration discussions irrelevant.

Whatever the reasoning behind keeping Lindor down, the Indians are alienating their fan base, Lindor himself and Ramirez by waiting so long for the promotion. He was good enough last September for a call-up, but was held back so as not to waste service time and was deserving after Spring Training as well (with a line of .297/.308/.595 against Major League opponents). Now, with the Indians struggling offensively, defensively and in attendance as well, there is nothing better they could than promote the 21 year old man whom everyone is waiting for.