What’s Eating Corey Kluber?

To say this has been a tough start to the season is a gross understatement. The Indians came into the year with the highest expectations of any season since 2008 and perhaps that was an omen of things to come as that year’s squad also failed to live up to their lofty expectations. Unfortunately there is no singular cause that can be pointed to and identified as the root of all the Indians’ troubles this season; in fact the entire team has had troubles that have cost the Indians’ wins. The bullpen has gone from one of the best in the league last year to one of the worst, the hitters have oftentimes looked like little leaguers, and recently the pitching staff has gone into full-blown batting practice mode. But nothing is as worrisome as the struggles of reigning Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber.

Going into the year, a common conception of the Indians’ starting rotation was that Kluber would be the steady force, while the other four behind him could be a toss up and subject to much more volatility. However, Kluber has made seven starts this season and has failed to showcase the kind of dominance we have become accustomed to seeing from our fabled ace. Through this seven starts Kluber is sporting an ugly 5.20 ERA, but while on the surface things may appear to be turbulent, Kluber may not be having as bad of a year as you may think.

All Indians fans should educate themselves on the follies of ERA, especially over the last few seasons with the defense being as poor as any in the league. This article won’t detail why ERA is such a poor means of pitcher evaluation, there are a great number of articles out there already, read up on your own time. Suffice it to say that the downfalls of ERA are why many of BurningRiverBaseball’s writers incorporate Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) into our analysis. While not perfect by any means, FIP measures how well a pitcher performs in the areas he can control, strikeouts, home runs, and walks, which makes it an ideal jumping off point for digging deeper into a pitcher’s performance. Last year Corey Kluber finished the year with a 2.35 FIP, a tremendous rate that perfectly encapsulates everything Kluber did well last season, keeping the ball in the ballpark, not walking batters, and striking out hitters… a TON of hitters. This year Kluber’s FIP rate is 3.20, although that’s nearly a run higher than last year it’s still very good. When it comes to allowing home runs, walking batters, and striking out guys, Kluber isn’t fairing much worse than he was last season.

There is a decent disparity in Kluber’s strikeout rate from last season, but last year was a phenomenal year for him in striking out batters, and this year he is still putting up elite numbers. The next biggest difference lies in his home run rate, which has made a fairly significant increase this season. However, all hope is not lost here, in fact we should expect this number to decrease as the season goes on. The league average HR/FB% usually sits around 10%, with last years’ being 9.5%. This is a good indicator that the amount of fly balls Kluber is allowing that end up going for home runs will begin to regress toward the mean. While this is not a certainty by any means, given the fact that there is a fair amount of luck involved in which fly balls go over the fence, coupled with the fact that Kluber is doing everything else well this season, I tend to believe he has been on the unlucky side of a few fly balls that ended up being home runs. Kluber has only pitched 44.2 innings this season, expect his home run rate to stabilize as his sample size grows. (For more information of HR/FB% look here).

So other than the increase in home runs that Kluber is allowing, there is another possible source for his struggles thus far this season, batting average on balls in play. Currently Kluber’s BABIP is .364, far above the usual league average of .300. A common conclusion to reach after a cursory glance at Kluber’s numbers this season is to state that he has just been unlucky. Luck is a part of BABIP, but it’s not the only factor that goes into a pitcher’s BABIP rate, the defense behind him and the talent level of the pitcher also play a significant role. So where is the source of the problem for Kluber?

It’s likely a mixture of the poor defense playing behind him and generally being unlucky. I say “likely” because it’s too early in the season to say whether certain batted ball trends will continue throughout the year.

As you can see, the percentage of balls in play that have gone for line drives has increased slightly for Kluber this year. Since line drives tend to go for hits more frequently than ground balls or fly balls, this could be a cause of Kluber’s troubles this season. However, the increase is so slight that I don’t believe it is the cause of Kluber’s problems this season. What could be an issue is the increase in the number of batted balls that have been hit with hard speed. This is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses, hard hit balls could be the result of a number of factors such as lack of command, ineffectiveness of pitches or lack of movement, decreased velocity, etc. I’m not convinced that we can attribute his issues solely to this cause, but it is interesting and certainly something to be aware of.

The one contributing factor nearly every Indians fan could have pinpointed without conducting any type of in-depth analysis into Kluber’s season is the poor defense behind him. The Indians currently sit 28th in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved, in large part because the Indians are a collection of statues in the field. rPM is the measure of a fielder’s range and ability to convert a batted ball to an out. The Indians are also 28th in this category with -16 runs saved, this indicates that the majority of the Indians’ defensive runs not-saved are due to lack of range. Which not coincidentally is a major reason why ERA is not as reliable of an analytical tool when evaluating a pitcher’s performance. An earned run because of a solo home run counts the same as a ground ball through the left side of the infield that an immobile shortstop or third basemen couldn’t get to, whereas the average third basemen or shortstop would. In the latter example, with a team that has a lot of range that run never occurs.

Obviously the lack of range isn’t something new to the Indians’ defense, which is where Kluber’s luck, or lack thereof, is contributing to his struggles. As mentioned earlier, luck is a contributing factor to a pitcher’s BABIP. Before this season, Kluber’s career BABIP was .326, which is much higher than the league average. Even last year’s BABIP of .316 was higher than league average, which indicates that Kluber’s career BABIP when he finally retires may be above .300. But a .364 is unlikely to be sustainable throughout a full season of play. Taking into account that a ten point increase in BABIP can account for a .10 increase in ERA, it’s not unthinkable that Kluber’s struggles in the early going are in large part to BABIP and its component factors. I’d expect Kluber to start having much more success than he has had up until now, he’s far too talented of a pitcher no to.