Could Corey Kluber Be the Next Luis Tiant?

Luis Tiant was one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, a borderline Hall of Famer (received a 31% vote in support in 1980) with 229 career wins, three All-Star appearances and three top six Cy Young finishes. He is also the pitcher to own the distinction of the greatest separation in wins and losses in consecutive seasons. In 1968, Tiant had his first great season for the Indians, making the All-Star game and leading the league in ERA (1.60), shut outs (9) and FIP (2.04) while posting a record of 21-9. In 1969, the pitching mount was lowered, two teams were added to the American League and Tiant’s record flipped to 9-20, leading the league in losses, walks (129) and home runs (37). The headline regarding Corey Kluber is not meant to compare him to Tiant’s best, but the incredible flip that allowed him to become the only pitcher to win 20 games one season, then lose 20 the following year.

Before this is taken out of context, there are a few points that need to be addressed. First, Tiant wasn’t that bad in 1969. He still struck out 156 in 259.2 innings with a 3.71 ERA, the second best on the team behind Sam McDowell. Secondly, Kluber didn’t win 20 games in 2014, although he had a very comparable year to Tiant’s by winning the Cy Young with a 2.44 ERA, 269 strike outs and a 18-9 record, so he couldn’t possibly alternate 20 decision seasons.

The difference between being 12 games above .500 to 11 games below has more to do with luck and run support than any thing else. It is not even one or the other, but both combined that can cause such a big swing and that is one of the major reasons that wins are not considered important by most people in modern baseball. In Tiant’s 1969 season, he actually received more run support (3.66 RPG) than the team scored during the rest of season (3.53 RPG) and more than he had the year before (3.23 RPG), but the important part was the distribution. Four of Tiant’s losses in ’68 came in shut outs where Tiant allowed three or fewer runs while 15 losses in the following season came in games where the Indians scored two or less runs. Scoring in bunches, six of his nine wins that year came with at least seven runs of support. Tiant won his first game in 1969 on May 30th, then won seven of nine straight games after losing each of his first six starts and seven of his first eight.

Back to the modern age, Kluber took five of his nine losses of 2014 in games where his offense backed him with one or fewer runs, although he did get 4.35 runs of support per game for the entire season. While a more even distribution of runs would have been preferred, the Indians outscored opponents 42-7 in Kluber’s five biggest wins of the year.

This year, he appears to have gotten Tiant’s luck, at least through the first five games. The chart to the right shows the runs given to Kluber in each game by the Indians and those he allowed on his own. In general, when a pitcher averages two earned runs over three starts, that should equate to at least one win, but instead Kluber went 0-1 across those first three starts and has added consecutive losses in each of his last two.

Back in 2014, Kluber had a similar start, allowing 14 earned runs in his first five starts (compared to 16 this year), but instead of the 0-3 start, he began 2-2 completely due to separate outings with five and eight runs in support. This was luck as much as anything else as five runs in his first, fourth or sixth starts in 2014 would not have been enough to earn a win. If nothing else, this further proves the uselessness of the win as a pitcher related stat as almost identical April starts of a 4.14 ERA in 37 innings with 35 strike outs in 2014 compared to a 4.24 ERA in 34 innings with 36 strike outs in 2015 lead to vastly different 2-3 and 0-3 records.

It’s incredibly early to look at a comparison to Tiant’s epic reversal and we may return to the subject if things keep heading this way, but it is a definite possibility. The Indians have had a tough time scoring all season but when they do, they do it big. Overall, the Indians have averaged 3.74 runs per game, but removing the one 13 run effort, that number drops to 3.22 per game. Taking away the three games the Indians have scored six runs exactly, the Indians have averaged 2.66 runs per game this year.

With four incredible starters, the Indians will likely win most of the games where they can muster six or more runs and almost certainly, Kluber will get lucky once or twice this year and be the beneficiary. Even if he is, he only has to go four more starts to match Tiant’s winless streak to begin 1969. As with Tiant, who was 28 during the 1969 season, Kluber is a young starter coming into his prime with no reason to believe that his success won’t continue for a long time. He is already setting high marks for season and career strike outs and after signing a long term contract during the off-season, he should be a solid starter in Cleveland through at least 2019.

After that odd year, Tiant wound up pitching 13 more seasons with a 3.55 ERA, 124 complete games and 28 shut outs. A career ending like this would be a spectacular ending for Kluber, so an inauspicious start to 2015 and a possible reversal of 2014, shouldn’t be something to worry about too much. It’s just something to look out for while the Indians offense tries to figure out how to regularly get more than two runners to cross home plate each game.

If you would like to vote on whether you think Kluber will or will not pull a Tiant, make it official on Knoda.