Tribe Targets: Yosmani Tomas

Most of the players on the current free agent market are known around baseball as the average free agent is at least 30 and has played many years in the Majors, there are a few new names on the list this year. One of the more interesting of these is a hitter that is not necessarily on the Indians radar, but possibly should be, Yosmani Tomas.

Unquestionably the best free agent signing of the past off-season was the White Sox signing of Jose Abreu, who would ultimately win the Silver Slugger at first base, Rookie of the Year and finish fourth in AL MVP voting. How was a player of such talent available as a free agent for just $7M (6 years $68M total) at the age of just 27? He was born on the embargoed nation of Cuba. After years without significant defections, the Cuban free agent market has heated up again in recent years with Abreu joining Yeonis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Aroldis Chapman among others. This year, the biggest name of the group will be Yasmani Tomas, an outfielder formerly of the Industriales de La Habana.

While stats are hard to come by for the Cuban National League, here are Tomas’ numbers (along side Abreu’s) from the past three seasons from beisbolencuba.com:

A few things to note before looking too deep into these numbers are that they come from a much shorter season (just 90 games) in a league that is dominated by offense, as shown by the ten batters who hit above .340 in the 2012-2013 season. This being said, Tomas was among the leaders in each of the last two seasons, finishing fifth in the league in home runs, sixth in average and 20th in RBI in the 2012-2013 campaign. While not quite the numbers of Abreu, these numbers are still very impressive and only a few Cuban players, like Alfredo Despaigne who has also played in Japan, can boast better numbers over the past few seasons.

It would seem irresponsible to base a large financial obligation on just these limited numbers in a lesser league, but lucky for all Major League teams, Tomas also participated in the 2013 World Baseball Classic against the “best” talent the world has to offer. In that tournament, the Cuban team came into the Classic with the top ranking, but ended up with a second round removal due to a couple losses from the upstart Netherlands team. In those games, Tomas hit even better than Abreu, although in fewer at bats, posting a line of .375/.412/.813. While the Cubans didn’t fare as well as they would have preferred, their losses had nothing to do with the outfielder Tomas.

Given his talent and the recent successes of other Cuban defectors, Tomas is set to break the bank this Winter. He is expected to command a salary of near $15M per season for between six and eight years, numbers even greater than Abreu, despite Abreu’s greater numbers, simply because of the success of his predecessor. That so many Cubans have been successful in the Majors over the past few seasons after being more hit or miss in the previous decade (remember Danys Baez) is likely a combination of two different forces. As mentioned last month, Major League teams have increased their focus in foreign players in recent years, leading to more and better scouting which in turn leads to smarter decisions. Secondly, in the case of Cuba alone, the increase in MLB contract values compared to inflation in general has lead to the best Cuban players being more willing to take the risks of leaving the communist paradise.

Given the popularity of baseball in Cuba, the best of the best are treated incredibly well, especially when compared to the rest of the populace. When Jose Contreras defected to the Yankees in 2003, he was given a deal of $61M over seven years. If he came today, that number would likely be at least doubled. While the risks of leaving have stayed the same, the increased reward has made more and more players, like Puig and the recently signed Rusney Castillo of the Red Sox.

It would be irresponsible to make any predictions of what Tomas could produce as a Major Leaguer, but that he is highly coveted cannot be denied. He is exactly the type of risk that the Indians try to avoid in fact, as they prefer to sign older veteran players for far more than they are actually worth (see Jason Giambi, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and many more). Unlike that type of player, Tomas just turned 24 and has his best years still in front of him. In addition, he is a high average player with more power than almost anyone on the current Indians roster. While he is a little free swinging and can have trouble with breaking pitches, this would simply put him on the level of other Cuban defectors like Puig and Alexei Ramirez, who have both been very valuable to their franchises.

Unlike the rest of the top hitters on the free agent market, like Pablo Sandoval and Nelson Cruz, not only is Tomas young, but he doesn’t come with the cost of a 2015 first round draft pick. Due to the Indians above .500 finish, they won’t have one of the protected picks in that draft and would lose their first round pick if they decided to sign any of the free agents who declined a qualifying offer. Tomas doesn’t come with this baggage. While he appears to be a greater risk, the fact that his best baseball years are yet to come, makes him less of a risk than a player like Cruz, who is coming off a difficult to explain outlying season. If the Indians are going to spend $15M per season at all this off-season, they could do a lot worse than to give it to Tomas. If it comes down to a bidding war with Boston, New York or LA, the Indians may as well sit this out, but given what he is currently expected to earn, there is little reason the Indians should be on the top end of the bidding.