2016 Buffalo Bills Preview
2015 Record: 8-8
2016-17 AFC East Division Odds: +425
2017 AFC Championship Odds: +2,500
2017 Super Bowl Odds: +5,000
When the 2016 NFL season kicks off, the Buffalo Bills will be looking to break through a years-long barrier of mediocrity that has curtailed their ceiling for about a half-decade. They have been vacillating between the seven and nine win marks since 2011. The Bills put together eight victories during Rex Ryan’s inaugural season as head coach in 2015, which he’ll look to improve on this season.
The Bills will be looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 19999, an almost 20 years since they last tasted knockout game glory. What better year to make it happen, right?
When it comes to betting, the Bills are fine to back as individual game wagers, but in a division that includes the dynastic New England Patriots, their .500 form isn’t enough to take a flier on their division, AFC championship or Super Bowl odds.
This, unfortunately, figures to be the case for the Bills once again this upcoming season. They haven’t made any substantial additions to the roster via free agency, and their top draft pick, defensive end Shaq Lawson out of Clemson, will be tasked with replacing Mario Williams, who signed with the Miami Dolphins.
That being said, the Bills do have the chops to improve.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has another year’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s coming off a campaign in which tossed 20 touchdowns, threw for more than 3,000 yards and posted a completion rate north of 63 percent. The chemistry he developed toward the end of 2015 with wide receiver Sammy Watkins should also go a long way toward helping the offense. Buffalo ranked 12th in points per game last season and will have enough weapons to improve upon that standing if running backs LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are able to stay healthy.
For the Bills to make any sort of noise, though, they’ll need more from the defense—Ryan’s specialty. The team was a middling 15th in points allowed per game during his first year at the helm but used its top three draft picks on players who can help them immediately on that side of the ball.
In addition to Lawson, there’s inside linebacker Reggie Ragland out of Alabama and defensive tackle Adolphus Washington from Ohio State. They, along with Lawson, strengthen a run-prevention unit that, despite ranking ninth in rushing touchdowns, finished 16th in rushing yards allowed.
If both the offense and defense make their projected leaps, the Bills are a nine, maybe 10 win team. That’s encouraging. It could earn them their first wild card appearance in almost two decades, which is a big deal.
But that still isn’t enough justification to view them as big-time future candidates. Their division odds (+425) aren’t nearly lavish enough for a team that shares a sector with New England, and their conference championship (+2500) and Super Bowl (+5000) odds, though lucrative, ring hollow when they’re hard capped as a wild card team.
On the bright side, this might be the perfect season to place stock in the Bills’ win totals. Most sportsbooks have the over/under on their victories for 2016 set at eight. And this is a team that should rather easily hit that nine win plateau.
The Bills also rank as an intriguing under option on an individual game basis. Their offense, even at full strength, won’t be elite. They don’t have enough potential in the air. They ranked 28th in passing yards and 20th in receiving touchdowns last season. If they rank inside the top 10 of points per contest, it’ll be a shocking feat.
Combine that glass ceiling with inevitable defensive improvement, buoyed in large part by Ryans’s defensive schemes and a strong showing at the draft, and you have a Bills squad that will be limited in the number of points it scores and stingy in the points it allows.
To be sure, you needn’t fret their 12th-ranked offense from last season or a possible improvement this upcoming year—the kind of progress that would seem to negate the under promise. The Bills will run the ball so much, that even if their offense is particularly efficient, it won’t be obscenely potent. They instead control the time of possession, inherently capping the number of scoring opportunities for both themselves and their opponents. That type of play style has “recurring under bet” written all over it.
Keep all this in mind, and you’ll be able to enjoy the Bills’ 2016 season as both a fan and sportsbettor.
Have a look at who the Buffalo Bills play next, scan their entire schedule, find out the best betting lines for every Bills game and heed some tips on how to make more money from your Bills bets.
Odds To Win AFC East
New England Patriots: -210
Buffalo Bills: +525
New York Jets: +525
Miami Dolphins:+800
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