EJ Manuel’s performance last Sunday showed why he was the first quarterback taken in the 2013 draft. Buffalo’s rookie quarterback has now played in seven games and we learn more and more about the type of player he might become as long as he can stay healthy. Just three other rookie quarterbacks have started more than one game this season (Geno Smith and Mike Glennon). Manuel compares favorably to those quarterbacks and likely has the highest chance of becoming a long term starter for his team.
Both Manuel and Glennon have started seven games so far this season while Smith has started all ten games for the Jets. Glennon has attempted the most passes per game (35.4) as well as the highest completion rate of the three (62.1%). Geno Smith has the highest passing yards per attempt (7.12) but has thrown the most interceptions. A quick comparison of the three quarterbacks is in the table below.
This week, I also included Glennon and Smith to the similarity matrix. The similar players from years past show how different these three quarterbacks’ careers may be.
Through seven weeks, Manuel’s overall game continues to be the most similar to Russell Wilson (96.2%). His passing through seven games is incredibly similar to Matt Ryan’s (98.7%). I found it interesting that the most comparable players to Manuel (Wilson and Ryan by overall play and passing, respectively) didn’t change even after Manuel’s worst and best games back to back.
Glennon has the highest overall similarity to Matt Ryan (95.9%) through seven games. They’re both pocket passers with big receivers, and Glennon absolutely shined in his matchup against Ryan. In Tampa Bay’s 41-28 win over Atlanta, Glennon completed 87% of his pass attempts (although two were thrown away) for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s rookie has passed most like Andy Dalton did through his first seven games (94.7% similarity). He’s been efficient and accurate.
Smith has been a total boom or bust player this season. He commits a lot of turnovers but also has the ability to create a huge play at any moment. Because his ten games have been marked by inconsistent play, his comparable players aren’t a huge compliment to the former West Virginia Mountaineer. The most similar quarterback through ten games is currently David Carr (97.7%) and the most similar passer is Chris Weinke (98.9%).
The Jets were hoping Smith would be the guy to take over for the now-injured Mark Sanchez, but Smith’s passing hasn’t been much different. Sanchez is the fourth most similar passer (98%) in the group of rookie quarterbacks. If Smith’s play continues to be so wildly inconsistent, the Jets should seriously consider drafting another quarterback in the spring.
Speaking of drafting anther quarterback, I wanted to shape the similarity comparisons in a way to determine the probabilities of a player becoming a “successful starter.” That definition can be interpreted a number of ways, but I decided a solid benchmark would be a five-year starter. Buffalo hasn’t had the same quarterback as the primary starter for five consecutive seasons since Jim Kelly retired after the 1996 season. If Manuel is the guy for just five years, Buffalo fans should be happy.
To quantify the probability, I took the ten most similar players for the three rookies this season. Each of the ten similar players (along with their similarity) either went on to be five year starters or didn’t. The few players that haven’t played for five seasons yet (Dalton, Freeman, Newton, Luck, Weeden, and Wilson) were assigned chances of becoming a five year starter in a similar way, although the chances are likely higher for some. Those five year starter scores (between zero and one) were then applied to the similarity scores to create the probabilities. The process has a few kinks to work out yet, but the results are interesting nonetheless.
According to this process, EJ Manuel has the highest chance (60.4%) of becoming a five year starter in the NFL. Mike Glennon isn’t far behind with a 58.1% chance, and Smith has dropped below a 50/50 proposition- just 47.6% chance of becoming a five year starter.
The sample size is still small, with just seven games for Manuel, and much can change in the last five games. But it’s looking like the Bills may have gotten their guy in Manuel. We just need to be patient with the quarterback and get excited for a chance at the playoffs all at once. Such is the dysfunctional life of a rebuilding franchise’s fan. It stings at times, but the potential upside is fantastic.
The upside this season could be the playoffs. Yikes, I said it! The Bills, however, have just five games remaining. Three of them are road games, and another is kind of a home game. Since 2000, rookie quarterbacks have attempted at least ten passes in 269 of their team’s final five games. Those teams have won just 99 times (37% of the games, although some of the losses could be attributed to teams trying out their young player once the team is out of contention). On top of that, the Bills currently have one more loss than the other teams competing for a wild card spot.
One game at a time, go beat Atlanta in Toronto.
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