Note: lots of insider stuff
10. Why this game is no different from last week for the Colts: The Jets are the same team as the Ravens. They run first and pass second, and the defenses are almost identical because Ryan put them both in place. You could even argue the Ravens are better at the QB position, so there is no reason to think that this week’s result will be any different for the Colts. They will move another step closer to the Lombardi Trophy.
On Sunday, New York had a difficult time slowing down Chargers tight end Antonio Gates in the middle of the field. Against the Colts, expect the Jets to use a lot of pre-snap movement, which will make it difficult for Manning to decipher how many defenders are in the box and what their intentions are.
The Colts’ offensive line isn’t real talented or littered with high-end players, but led by center Jeff Saturday, it is a very smart group. The line will have to be very mentally sharp against the Jets’ Rex Ryan-coached defense. The league has never seen a more cerebral quarterback than Manning, but his physical gifts are exceptional as well. Manning might not get as many possessions as he is accustomed to but will have to make each one count.
AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Both of these defenses are much better against the pass than the run on third and fourth down. The Jets were the best defense against third-down passing during the regular season — but ranked 25th against the run. The Colts ranked third against passes on third and fourth down but 21st against the run.
On third-and-long, the Jets ranked 25th in DVOA on offense, while the Colts ranked second on defense. One reason the Colts have such a big advantage here is that they should be able to get to Mark Sanchez in these situations. Don’t be fooled by the Jets’ low total of 30 sacks allowed (tied for 10th in the league). The main reason they didn’t allow sacks is that their offense had fewer pass plays than any other offense. The Jets were 23rd in FO’s adjusted sack rate metric. The Colts’ defense, meanwhile, finished just 16th in ASR, but that’s a bit of a mirage caused by defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis playing very little the final three games. If we look at ASR in Weeks 1 through 14, the Colts move into the top 10.
The Jets used the shotgun less than any other offense except Carolina’s — appropriate since they had the worst offense in the shotgun of any team in the league.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Jets when they get near the end zone. The Colts were the fifth-best defense in the red zone and the best in the league in goal-to-go situations.
The Jets allowed 4.6 yards per carry when opponents were in a one-back formation and only 3.0 yards per carry when opponents used a fullback. That’s the fourth-largest difference of any defense in the NFL. The Colts, remember, rarely use a fullback except in short-yardage situations.
Among the reasons why this game might turn out closer than you expect: The Colts’ offense had a strange habit of shutting it down with a lead this regular season, and I don’t mean just by bringing in their backup quarterback against the Jets in Week 16. The Colts ranked 28th in offensive DVOA when winning by more than a touchdown.
But if it gets close late, everything points to the Colts pulling it out. As you might expect from a team with seven fourth-quarter comebacks, the Colts were better in “late and close” situations (second half or overtime, score within a touchdown), improving their DVOA rating on both offense and defense. The Jets, on the other hand, saw both their offense and defense get worse in late and close situations.
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