Consistency is the key to everything in sports.
It’s amazing. Because you can be the best thing around town one night, but the next you’re ripped apart, feelin’ like nobody loves ya.
I have to imagine that’s how Ryan Miller feels after last night’s loss to the Flyers as it became clearer than ever that fan’s patience for Ryan Miller is wearing thinner than ever.
Folks, just a year ago Miller was coming off a Vezina-winning campaign in what was very easily the best season a goaltender has put together since Hasek bolted town.
Goalie is quite possibly the most scrutinized position in sports after quarterback, so it’s no surprise to me Miller is taking the criticism he has of late.
But seriously, lay off a bit, will ya people? The man works his a** off. Sure, he makes $6M plus, which is about $5,999,999 more than you and I make, but like it or not he’s our best chance to win a Stanley Cup and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
I don’t know what hockey game you were all watching but last night, in addition to many of the other games so far this year, I saw far worse issues on the ice with the Sabres than Ryan Miller.
You can whine and complain all you want. But it’s not helping the man who obviously could use a set of thicker skin. So how about some support for the goalie that’s done so much for this city during his time here?
How does all this relate to fantasy football, you ask? Well, it doesn’t, at all really. I just wanted to stir the pot a little bit.
But the consistency factor absolutely does.
You strive to have the most consistent players on your fantasy team every year. And every year the team who has the most of the like wins the championship.
These players are extremely hard to find, and often the ones you’re most sure of turn out to be the biggest busts (Chris Johnson? What a joke).
So far this season, Aaron Rodgers has been by far the biggest bang for your buck as if you invested a high pick on the star, you’re almost certainly reaping the benefits. Other guys such as Colt McCoy and Josh Freeman are far less flashy, but if you look at the numbers are among the most consistent fantasy producers this year.
The point is that in sports you never know what you’re going to get night after night, season after season, so it’s best to take what you have now and enjoy it. Consistency is the hardest thing to find. If you find it and can establish it week after week, you’re well on your way to making a championship run. Which is why everyone needs to give Ryan Miller a break. Allow him to find his consistency.He’ll figure it out. Trust me. Or don’t. But you’ll see.
Once he does, this team will be on the run we all know they’re capable of.
So now back to fantasy football.
After an abysmal Week Seven, I managed to bounce back a bit with my picks last week, finishing 7-5. Not the best, but I’ll take it. Let’s see what we’ve got in store for us this week.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of Week Nine, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 8 Told’ya So (Studs)
Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
Projected: 334 YDS, 2 TD 0 INT, 18 PTS
Actual: 365 YDS, 2 TD 1 INT, 18 PTS
Steve Smith WR CAR
Projected: 8 REC 121 YDS, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 100 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Week 8 Eating Crow (Studs)
Darren Sproles RB NO
Projected: 142 TOTYDS, 6 REC, 1 TD, 21 PTS
Actual: 76 TOTYDS, 6 REC, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Chris Johnson RB TEN
Projected: 124 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 51 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
David Nelson WR BUF
Projected: 7 REC 89 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 47 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Visanthe Shiancoe TE MIN
Projected: 5 REC 76 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 37 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 20/36, 56%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Studs
Josh Freeman QB TB
Matchup vs New Orleans
As discussed previously in the column, Josh Freeman is Mr. Consistency. This year he’s taken a slight step back, but he’s managed to find his rhythm as of late, scoring double-digits two weeks in a row. Despite the fact the Saints have a fairly respectable defense, Freeman has enjoyed much success when pitted against New Orleans in his short career. Just two weeks ago Freeman put up 18 points as the Bucs beat the Saints 26-20. I like him a lot this week again, especially against a defense that has given up the 13th most points to opposing QBs this season.
Week 9 Forecast: 27/34 312 YDS, 3 TD 1 INT, 23 PTS
Honorable mention: Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub
Michael Turner RB ATL
Matchup vs Indianapolis
The Burner has been a regular here in Studs and Duds throughout the season, making appearances on both sides multiple times. I’m not sure why. I guess it’s just because I like his nickname. This week, though, I also like the fact that he gets the chance to face a Colts defense that has allowed the second-most points to opposing running backs this season. Basically, you start everyone and their mother when they face the Colts. This is no different this time around. The Falcons will come out running the ball and I’m expecting a huge day from Mr. Turner.
Week 9 Forecast: 31 CAR 136 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Freddy Jackson RB BUF
Matchup vs New York Jets
It’s pretty safe to say this is by far the biggest game the Bills have played to this point in the season implications wise, right? I mean, it’s huge if they can capitalize on their chance to bury the Jets two games back in the division. And so who do you think is the most important player on the Bills this week? Nope, not Fitz. Not Stevie. It’s Freddy, and it’s not even close. The Bills NEED to establish the run early because they sure as hell won’t be able to throw it on Revis Island, and I think they will. The Jets run defense is nothing like it used to be. I fully expect 100+ yards and a score from Jackson. If he performs well in this one, I think he enters must-start status from here on out.
Week 9 Forecast: 27 CAR 139 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Honorable mention: Pierre Thomas, Michael Bush
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ
Matchup vs Buffalo
Staying in the same game, I like Santonio Holmes against the Bills sad secondary. I hate Sanchez, though. Does that make any sense? I don’t care. Anyways, George Wilson and Jairus Byrd have been solid of late, but they haven’t faced a receiver as talented as Holmes since DeSean Jackson and I seem to remember Jackson having his way with McKelvin & Co. Even if Sanchez only throws one touchdown, I’d expect it to go to Holmes. He’ll be one of the keys in the Jets’ offensive game plan this week.
Week 9 Forecast: 5 REC 98 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
A.J. Green WR CIN
Matchup vs Tennessee
What a great pick Green is turning out to be for the Bengals and his fantasy owners alike this season. He’s probably the best rookie wideout since Calvin Johnson broke in and he shows us week after week just why that is. Green has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games and faces a Titans defense which has had problems defending actual good receivers this season. He’s forming a great chemistry with Andy Dalton, so I like Green a lot from here on out.
Week 9 Forecast: 6 REC 112 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace
Brent Celek TE PHI
Matchup vs Chicago
I’m looking forward to this Monday night draw between the Eagles and Bears this week and I’m still not entirely sure why. I get the strange feeling we’ll be in for a pretty high-scoring game. Brent Celek arose from his fantasy football grave on Halloween weekend, drawing 11 targets, catching six of them and scoring on one. For as decent as the Bears’ defense has been of late, they’ve been absolutely throttled by opposing tight ends all season, allowing the most points to the position in the league. I like Celek to duplicate his performance from last week.
Week 9 Forecast: 5 REC 88 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Honorable mention: Scott Chandler, Ed Dickson
Gut Call: Tarvaris Jackson vs Dallas
Tarvaris Jackson?! What the @%&! Brandon, Tarvaris Jackson?! Yes. Travaris Jackson is his name and if you’re desperate, do yourself a favor and show your league-mates how smart you are by picking him up and starting him. It’s ballsy, I know. But did you see Dallas’ defense last week? They’re so spotty. One week Dallas looks great and then the next they absolutely suck. In each of the games Jackson has finished this year, he’s eclipsed 300 yards in each. Dallas will be without one of their top corners and Seattle will likely have to throw a decent amount in order to win. I can see Jackson tossing for a few scores here.
Week 8 Told’ya So(Duds)
Tony Romo QB DAL
Projected: 224 YDS, 1 TD 3 INT, 7 PTS
Actual: 203 YDS, 1 TD 1 INT, 9 PTS
Bernard Scott RB CIN
Projected: 82 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 76 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Knowshon Moreno RB DEN
Projected: 79 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Actual: 74 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
Projected: 4 REC 58 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 98 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Marcedes Lewis TE JAC
Projected: 3 REC 38 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 45 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Week 8 Eating Crow(Duds)
Eric Decker WR DEN
Projected: 3 REC 42 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 6 REC 72 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 18/36, 50%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 7-5, Season 49-47.
Duds
Phillip Rivers QB SD
Matchup vs Green Bay
I debated whether or not I should use this as my Dud gut call of the week, but I decided I could make up enough evidence to justify putting him here this week. Green Bay’s defense has been great against the run this season, but contrary to the popular belief, have actually been pretty poor against the pass. Maybe that has to do with opposing teams always playing catchup to Rodgers and Co., but still. Regardless, it doesn’t matter how poor a defense is if a quarterback is playing as terrible as Rivers has of late. I just don’t trust him right now. He’s laid an egg with back-to-back sub-10 point performances and I feel as though this will be a game where Green Bay dominates.
Week 9 Forecast: 26/42 279 YDS 1 TD 3 INT, 8 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Joe Flacco, Tim Tebow
Matt Forte RB CHI
Matchup vs Philadelphia
I know I said I think this will be a high-scoring offensive affair this week earlier in the post, but one of the few members of either team I don’t think will benefit is Matt Forte. Look, he’s had a pretty good season to this point, but he’s done something very wrong lately by making his desire for a new contract known to all who will listen. I like Forte, buit this strategy never seems to work out from a fantasy perspective (Don’t believe me? See Johnson, Chris). I think he’ll be distracted going in and that will ultimately effect his performance. Expect a disappointing effort this week from Forte.
Week 9 Forecast: 19 CAR 92 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Willis McGahee RB DEN
Matchup vs Oakland
It looks as though McGahee will make a return from his injury this week just in time to catch the latest edition of Tebow Mania. He played well before he went down with an injury, so I’ll give him that much, but I just simply don’t like McGahee from a fantasy standpoint going forward. Since Tebow took over, no running back has done well in Denver other than Tebow himself. I think the rust factor as well as the fact Tebow is starting at QB will severely hurt McGahee this week and going forward.
Week 9 Forecast: 22 CAR 78 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Rashard Mendenhall, Jackie Battle
DeSean Jackson WR PHI
Matchup vs Chicago
I know. Another guy from the game I said would be a fantasy-point factory. I still think that, I just don’t think Jackson will have that great of a game. He’s been a pretty big disappointment up to this point and Chicago actually defends the deep ball very well, which is Jackson obvious strength. I also think Jeremy Maclin has essentially taken over the No. 1 role in Philly as he’s been on fire lately. As long as Maclin is Vick’s favorite target and McCoy keeps running like he is, I don’t think Jackson will produce all that much.
Week 9 Forecast: 4 REC 67 YDS, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Darius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
Matchup vs Denver
I haven’t really done much on Raiders wide receivers so far this season. There’s probably a reason for that. But Heyward-Bey has actually had a respectable fantasy season up to this point. Only problem is that when Jason Campbell went down, so did Heyward-Bey’s chances of continuing his productivity. I don’t need to tell you how bad Carson Palmer looked in his Raiders debut, and they’re still likely to be without McFadden, which hurts the offense as a whole. Denver’s defense isn’t good. In fact, they’re terrible when it comes to stopping the pass. But I think Champ Bailey will keep Heyward-Bey in check.
Week 9 Forecast: 3 REC 46 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson
Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
Matchup vs Indianapolis
Gonzalez hasn’t been here in this slot for a while now after being such a Duds mainstay early on. He’s had a few nice weeks and a few sub-par ones, too. This week, though, will be a big disappointment for Gonzalez owners given the matchup. Like I said earlier, the Colts’ defense is atrocious. Michael Turner will be the main beneficiary of this without a doubt. Not to mention Gonzalez has had his best games when Julio Jones went out. Now, Jones is back in, and the Colts are actually alright against opposing tight ends. I just don’t think he’ll see too many targets in this game.
Week 9 Forecast: 3 REC 36 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Vernon Davis, Alex Hernandez
Gut Call: Miles Austin vs Seattle
This isn’t as ballsy as I’d like my gut call to be, but I couldn’t really dig up anyone else that wouldn’t make me sound like a complete moron. Talk about draft busts, Miles Austin is making it two years in a row now. That’s not the trend his owners were hoping for when they drafted him. The Seahawks defense isn’t very good against the pass, and there’s really no reason why Tony Romo and Austin can’t connect on a few great passes… ah who am I kidding? This is Tony Romo we’re talking about! Nothing good can come of this.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Bills vs New York Jets
I’ve already hit on a few of the major contributors I think this game will yield, but lets go a little more in-depth, shall we? You already know Jackson will have a good game, so what about Fitz? This matchup scares me when it comes to the Bills passing game. It’s not only Revis, either. People often forget that Cromartie and Wilson are two pretty good cornerbacks as well. Fitz threw for less than 150 yards in his game against the Jets last season and I think he’ll face a good amount of pressure which will hamper his ability to post the quality fantasy numbers we’ve seen so far. Seeing as Stevie Johnson will see a lot of Revis, I wouldn’t expect much from him which also means David Nelson and Scott Chandler will have to step up a bit. I can see Chandler catching another touchdown but aside from that, I’d stay away from any other members of the Bills offense this week.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
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