September in Buffalo means most football fans have already begun digging in, bracing themselves for the inevitable disaster we all like to call the Bills’ football season. Fortunately for us, we also have the option to ignore all reality of our football hardships and obsess over something even better — our fantasy team.
Whether you’re a grizzled vet of virtual football or just a newbie joining in on the fun for the first time, this piece along with hopefully many others throughout the football season will be must-reads for those of you who crave to find an edge over their opponents.
Me? I’ve played fantasy sports ever since I was old enough to know what stats were.
Admittedly, I’m a loser.
I’m no Matthew Berry, but everyone reads him anyways, so if you really want the upper-hand on your buddies, stick with me. There’s nothing sweeter in this world than winning your fantasy league. Together, we can obtain the ultimate sports-nerd bragging rights. Don’t believe me?Just take a look. I’ll take all the thank-yous after the season is over.
It is under my assumption that Buffalo Wins has never featured any sort of fantasy football article which is astonishing to me, so I thought it’d be fun to whip up a little fantasy info and opinion I’ve gathered this off-season and parlay it into one big, kick-ass pre-draft prediction article here at Buffalo Wins.
By now, I can only guess you’ve read everything there is to know about fantasy football this fall in preparation for your fantasy football draft. But here’s a little more insight to throw into your draft strategy. You won’t be sorry.
Busts
We kick things off with something every fantasy owner dreads having on their roster: the fantasy bust.
The term is like a swear-word in fantasy football. If your top pick turns out to be a bust that year, you may as well just kiss your fantasy season goodbye. So let’s go over a few ways to prevent this as I highlight five guys I’d stay away from this year if I were you. If you decide to ignore my advice, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
5. Brandon Lloyd WR DEN
He was everyone’s favorite free agent pickup last season. In fact, if you won your league, you probably had him on your roster. In most formats, Lloyd came out of nowhere to finish atop all wide-outs in scoring and now he’s being drafted as if he’s going to duplicate those numbers again this season.
I’m here to tell you that it’s not going to happen. No one likes a one-year-wonder in fantasy sports, and Lloyd has it written all over him this season. His success last year can largely be attributed to then head coach Josh McDaniels who is now the offensive coordinator for the Rams (by the way, I LOVE Sam Bradford this season, and all his WR’s for that matter). Lloyd would be a good pick if he wasn’t going so high in most drafts, as he’s still Orton’s No. 1 target, but to think he will put up the same numbers this season is absurd. If you can buy low, do it. If not, look right past him in your draft.
4. Stevie Johnson WR BUF
I include Stevie in this mainly because I know were pretty much all Bills fans here which means you are all likely taking him much higher in your drafts than you should be while your buddies who are fans of other teams chuckle at their computer screens.
If I’m you, I’m staying far away from all Bills offensive players this season as we just don’t have the slightest clue on who’s actually going to step up and produce. After the trade of Lee Evans, there’s no telling how many defenders will be able to key in on Johnson, and that could drastically hamper his fantasy production this year. Now, I’m not saying Stevie won’t have a decent season, because he will still easily lead all Bills receivers in targets, but right now he’s going ahead of guys like Chad Ochocinco and Kenny Britt, which just simply should not happen.
3. Peyton Manning QB IND
I’m not sure Peyton has ever been mentioned in a fantasy bust column in his entire career, but I suppose this year will be a good place to start. Listen, I’m the biggest Manning fan there is, he’s the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, and whenever he gets back from this little neck injury, he will be Peyton Manning again.
With that said, there is no doubting Manning should begin to see a decline in his game if he hasn’t already, and even if he does play in weeks one or two, it’s likely he won’t be 100% for at least a few weeks after. I’m not doubting Manning won’t produce this year, I just foresee a drop-off. This means he’s going way too high in your drafts and if you’re smart, you’ll go elsewhere with your fantasy quarterback this year.
This year I’ll take Matt Schaub, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger before I pull the trigger on Manning. As it stands right now, he’s going before all three of them in drafts. Try to get a top-tier QB this season and avoid being forced to gamble on Manning or others in the later rounds. If there was ever a year when you needed a great quarterback on your fantasy team, this is it.
2. Adrian Peterson RB MIN
Traditionally, Peterson has been money in the bank throughout his career in terms of fantasy production. But I think this is the year he’s due to see a drop in his stats.
So far Peterson has yet to suffer a major injury in his pro career and I fear that it is more likely then ever it happens this season, and that’s not a risk I’m willing to take with a top-three draft selection.
I have a few reasons for thinking this. One being Peterson has suffered some wear and tear over the years and given the short life running backs have in this league anymore he probably only has a few more top-tier productive seasons left in the tank. Peterson’s offensive line has deteriorated over the year and now that the Old Gunslinger has finally hung up his cleats, Peterson is left to spearhead an offensive attack let by an aging Donovan McNabb and a few sub-par receivers after the departure of Sidney Rice. That means Peterson is really the only viable threat on the Vikings offense that opposing defenses have to account for, allowing them to key in on AD. Thus meaning a decrease in production and an increased injury risk. I’m passing if I hold a pick within the top-four.
1. Arian Foster RB HOU
I love Arian Foster. I had him on virtually every one of my fantasy teams last season and have a few league championships to show for it.
But all gloating aside, this hamstring injury he’s facing is very real. I’m not doubting his talent at all whatsoever. If Foster were healthy, he’d be my clear-cut choice for first overall. But he’s not healthy. And given his history with injuries, Foster’s beginning to look more and mroe brittle to me every single day.
With ESPN’s John Clayton reporting Foster will miss the first four weeks of the season, I’d rather not forfeit the first four weeks of my fantasy season. Needless to say Foster is not at the top of draft board again this season. Instead, I’m looking elsewhere with my pick and someone else can deal with Foster’s injuries he’s likely to suffer through the entire season.
Sleepers
Next up we go over who is in my opinion this year’s biggest sleepers. For those of you who are unsure of what a “sleeper” truly is, let me give you my description.
A sleeper player is anyone who are most likely primed to have a huge year for their fantasy owners. If a player is given the title of “sleeper” he has never before been considered a relevant fantasy option — whether that mean he is either a rookie or just simply someone who has yet to breakout.
For example, last year’s biggest sleeper whom everyone (including myself) was incredibly high on was Arian Foster. We all know how that turned out. Unfortunatel,y this season seems to lack any great options that stick out like a sore thumb like Foster last year, so let’s take a look at a few guys you should be looking at this year.
5. Tim Hightower RB WAS
Everyone has been talking about Hightower this preseason which by definition doesn’t technically make him a “sleeper”, but seeing as he’s not being drafted where he should be, I’ll still include. Make no mistake about it folks, for where he’s currently going, he should be one of the best ADP (Average Draft Position) values this season.
So far the dude has rushed for 170 yards at 6.8 YPC and two touchdowns. Now, are we surprised? Hell no. Mike Shanahan is his coach; which is the other reason why he’s No. 5 on my sleepers list. Shanahan isn’t exactly friendly to the fantasy owners of his running backs. But with that said, Hightower has all but locked up the starting gig for a Washington team that should be better this season. With John Beck/Rex Grossman at QB expect A LOT of rushing attempts split between the three backs — with Hightower getting the bulk. Despite any negatives, his upside far outweighs the down. He’ll still provide great value as he’s going 30th among RB’s in ESPN standard league drafts (behind C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.. c’mon now!).
4. Steven Ridley RB NE
Take note that Ridley probably shouldn’t be taken until the very late stages of your draft but regardless, if you do pull the trigger you will benefit from the newest plug in to the Bill Belichick TD factory.
The Pats didn’t use their third-round pick on this guy for him to sit the bench all year. So far this preseason he’s backed up his draft selection by rushing for 148 yards and two TD’s while adding another 10 catches for 74 yards and an another score. I think he’s the real deal, especially if the league you play in awards points for receptions. At this point, I wouldn’t consider The Law Firm a lock for the starting gig after the preseason Ridley is having. At first expect him to split carries with Green-Ellis and Woodhead but if he can get going, you’ll want to have Ridley on your roster.
3. Ben Tate RB HOU
The report of Foster missing the first four weeks of the NFL seaons is not news that bodes well for anyone who already drafted Foster in their league.
However, this is great news for those of you who have yet to draft and have the opportunity to take Foster’s replacement, Ben Tate. Before Foster broke onto the scene, everyone was talking about how Ben Tate could be the next big thing in Houston’s high-octane offense. Coach Gary Kubiak is a disciple of Mike Shanahan’s and thus supports a running back friendly system. Tate is ranked fifth among running backs in rushing yards this preseason and there’s really no one else in Houston’s backfield who will take the carries away from him until Foster returns.
If you take Tate in your draft, at the very least you’ll get four solid weeks of production for a minimal price. If Foster misses anymore time this season (see Foster, Arian above), then you’ve struck late-round gold.
2. Lee Evans WR BAL
Bet you didn’t see this one coming, Bills fans. Things couldn’t get much better for Evans right now. First, he’s lucky enough to come across a one-way ticket out of the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL but wound up landing in a spot that should suit him perfectly.
Marred by terrible quarterback play in previous seasons here in Buffalo, Evans is still one of the best deep threats in the entire NFL. His speed should be a great compliment to Joe Flacco’s huge arm and mark my words, the two will gel all season long. With Anquan Boldin eating up coverage down low, Evans shouldn’t find it too difficult to burn the single coverage down the sidelines for a few scores — much like he’s already showcased this preseason after his trade. It’s not far-fetched at all to suggest Evans has a career year in his 8th season. 10 touchdowns from Evans? You heard it here first. Now that’s some incredible value for where he’s currently going in your drafts.
1. Daniel Thomas RB MIA
I’m going a little running back heavy here in the sleeper section because this year as long as Aaron Rodgers and Mike Vick are available in the first round, I’m taking them over any running back not named Chris Johnson. I think there are some very good lower-round options you could use as lottery ticket depth players instead of gambling your season away with a back in the first round.
With that said, there’s no running back in the league I like after round eight or so than rookie second-round pick Daniel Thomas. Sure, Miami’s rushing attack sucked to say the least last season, but they featured two backs over 30. Thomas is a ripe 22 and ready for the big time. In my opinion, he’s the closest thing to Foster this year.
The lockout shouldn’t have much effect on rookie running backs this year as it’s by far the easiest position to adapt to at the pro level. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gone, Chad Henne at quarterback and the fragile Reggie Bush as his only backfield competition, I see no reason for Thomas not to produce this season. There’s no doubt Bush will be out there on third downs, but he’s proved in the past he can’t handle much else so in comes Thomas, who should secure the starting gig on first and second downs as well as goal-line situations.
In other words, Daniel Thomas is going to make a lot of his owners very happy this season. Make sure you’re one of them.
The Must-Haves
Last but not least, I give you five of my “must-haves” for this season. These are guys that I personally am higher on than anyone else I know and likely that you have read already. “Must-haves” are the ones that you just simply can’t leave your draft without this season. Meaning if you want to win, you need at least one of the following:
5. LaGarrett Blount RB TB
Once upon a time Blount was only known for throwing a hay-maker right into the kisser of a Boise State opponent. Now, Blount is better known for the punishing blows he hands out to opposing defenders while running between the tackles.
Another huge breakout player last season and an even bigger reason why the Bucs have made such an abrupt turnaround, Blount will likely play a huge role in Tampa Bay this season. His backfield competition is all but gone now the Cadillac Williams is in St. Louis and that should mean plenty of touches for the second-year running back. In standard leagues, he’s the 17th running back coming off the board. Don’t be surprised if he eclipses the 300-carry mark this year and elevates himself into elite fantasy running back status.
4. Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Mendenhall has got to be one of the league’s most underrated players and it’s really not even close.
No other back in the NFL has carried the rock and produced as much and as well as Mendenhall has and gotten less recognition. He’s not fast, he’s not flashy, he just gets the job done week after week and is the featured back on a team that prides itself on its smash-mouth style of play and running game.
As if it couldn’t get any better, Mendenhall has absolutely no competition even remotely close to him in the backfield, making him one of the few true workhorses left at running back in today’s NFL. Those carries are like gold at that position in fantasy football these days. Expect no less from Mendenhall this season and at least 10-15 touchdowns.
3. Calvin Johnson WR DET
What can’t you say about Megatron? He’s got the size, the speed, the hands and the pedigree to get the job down and put up some serious fantasy pointage week in and week out. In my mind I believe a good case could be made to consider Johnson as the No. 1 receiver in the entire NFL.
Of course, a lot of this has to do with if quarterback Matt Stafford can stay healthy, but I feel as though this will be the year the Lions turn the corner along with Stafford’s injury troubles. Even if the third-year QB does go down, Johnson has proven time and time again that he can still put up huge numbers regardless of who’s under center. How many receivers can you say that about? He’s the first wide-out off the board for me.
2. Ray Rice RB BAL
After reading the bit on Lee Evans above, you already know I am very high on the Ravens offense this year. What you don’t know is that Ray Rice will be the straw that stirs the offensive drink, the gear that makes tick, the.. well, you get the point.
This is the year Rice finally breaks out and solidifies himself among fantasy elite. He made a run at this title a fear years back, but then regressed. This time he’s taking the torch and not looking back. He’s a PPR monster who can add another 1,500 yards and at least 10-15 touchdowns in this offense. AT LEAST. He’s going to be a good one guys, you’ll want him. I’m making sure he’s on my squad.
1. Aaron Rodgers QB GB
You may have noticed the lack of quarterbacks I’ve written about in this piece and that’s due to one reason: I’m banking on locking up Aaron Rodgers in every league I can this year. The dude is just money.
While Mike Vick easily presents the most upside, he also comes with an insane amount of risk. Rodgers is about as safe a pick as you can get this year. He won a Super Bowl last season and has nowhere to go but up from this point forward. Not only that, but while many quarterbacks were stuck playing catch-up with their new coaches/schemes after the lockout ended, Rodgers sat comfortably with his Championship Ring and is ready to take the league by storm.
Rodgers is the heart and soul of that offense, without him, they are nothing. I have every reason to believe Rodgers won’t just be the best quarterback this season, but will also score the most fantasy points of any player in the entire game. Whichever one of my teams has Rodgers this season will be the ones I win my fantasy league with.
Brandon’s Top-10
1. Aaron Rodgers QB GB
2. Chris Johnson RB TEN
3. Michael Vick QB PHI
4. Ray Rice RB BAL
5. Adrian Peterson RB MIN
6. Jamaal Charles RB KC
7. Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
8. Arian Foster RB HOU
9. Calvin Johnson WR DET
10. LeSean McCoy RB PHI
Disagree with anything I said in this article or have your own opinion? Let’s take it to the comment box! Or, if you have any further questions and/or need assistance with dominating your fantasy league, follow me and ask me on Twitter @THWGoldSchlager.
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