The draft is almost here! We have been covering every angle here at Buckeye State Hockey with mock drafts and profiles. Today, I am going to talk about three things I think Columbus needs to avoid doing when draft day rolls around.
- Trading Up
There have been a lot of rumours of the Jackets trying to move up from pick eight into the three-to-five range. Logic would indicate that this would be in an effort to select projected top defenceman Noah Hanifin. It may also be in an effort to select the fast-rising Ivan Provorov. While both are good players, I don’t believe either are significantly better than Zach Werenski, who should be available at eight. The concern here is that the cost to move up outweighs the difference in talent between the players.
Eric Tulsky, now of the Carolina Hurricanes, did some work on estimating what it would cost to move up in the draft. I would recommend reading the whole piece, but the gist is this: it’s very costly to move up in the draft. Using his value chart for the Jackets to move from the eighth selection to the third selection they would have to give up pick eight and another first round pick in the 18-23 range. The price is likely even higher this year with the draft being as celebrated for its depth as any in recent memory.
Seeing as the Columbus doesn’t have another first round pick, the cost would likely be a player chosen with a recent first round pick, or a future pick. I would wager that teams are asking for one of the big three from 2013 (Alexander Wennberg, Kerby Rychel or Marko Dano), or 2014’s first rounder Sonny Milano along with pick eight. The 2016 first round pick could be in play, but in my opinion it should be kept in case the team decides it want to offer sheet a player this summer (Dougie Hamilton, anyone?).
Is it worth it to part with any of those four players, or lose the chance at potentially offer-sheeting a noted RFA, in order to bridge the relatively minor talent levels between the three defenders? Not especially.
- Select a Goalie in the Top 90
Goalies are so volatile and extremely difficult to project that, in my opinion, a team should almost never take a goalie until at least the fourth round. Take, for example, Oscar Dansk. Picked 31st overall in 2012, he was thought to be the next up and coming great goalie. One pro season later, he couldn’t cut it at any level in North America and is heading back to Sweden for 2015/16. Columbus would be in a much better position had that pick not been used on something so unpredictable.
Even disregarding Dansk, the Jackets system is already loaded with goalie prospects. They still own the rights to the aforementioned Dansk, along with Anton Forsberg, Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo. Forsberg looks to be on the cusp of the NHL, and believe it or not he was the lowest pick of these goalies, going in the 7th round, pick 188 in 2011.
For another good example, look no further than the team’s current Vezina-winning goalie. Sergei Bobrovsky, one of the best goalies in the league, was never drafted. Yes, I’m cherry picking two (very relevant) examples, but there are others out there that show goalies, more than any other position, can be found later in the draft.
No matter how good Ilya Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood, or Daniel Vladar are, I would not pick any of them unless they fall to the fourth round. There is just too much risk and odds are an equally good goalie will be found in the seventh round.
- Draft a Big Physical Low Scoring Defencemen
It’s been proven time and time again that these types of players don’t pan out very often. Not only do they not succeed at a high percentage, but if they do, it’s very unlikely that it will be in a top pairing or even top four role. The reasoning behind is this simple: you need to have good puck skills to play in the NHL. There are many defensive defencemen in the NHL today who do not have great puck skills, but almost everyone could move the puck and put up points at some point in their junior career.
The other reason that the Blue Jackets should avoid this type of player is that that they already have two very similar players in the system in Dillon Heatherington, and Ryan Collins. Heatherington will play in the AHL next season, which is good sign for his development, but he’s already looking to be more of a depth player than any sort of impact defender. Collins is still a ways away but as of right now, he’s in a similar boat, projection-wise.
For these reasons, I would be avoiding guys like Brandon Carlo, Gabriel Carlsson, Chris Martenet, Joseph Cecconi, Nick Boka, and similar players.
With Mike Reilly moving on, the Jackets very clearly do not have a true puck moving defencemen in the system. Columbus is in a perfect spot to add that type of player this year. This is a very deep year for defencemen, as Jeremy and I profiled many puck moving players will be available after the first round. This plays right into the Blue Jackets hands as they have three second round picks, and a early first.
Up next I will have Three Things Columbus Should Do on Draft Day
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