News broke late Monday night at Aaron Portzline dropped a sizable revelation on the unsuspecting hockey world. The subject: James Wisniewski. Sunday night, Wisniewski was a surprise scratch in the Blue Jackets’ game against New York. Todd Richards briefly explained the situation as performance-based. The CBJ coach told Portzline, “We want him [Wisniewski] to be better.” Monday, the situation took a step further.
Heard from two different sources tonight that #CBJ are shopping D James Wisniewski around the #NHL, trying to move before Monday's deadline.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) February 24, 2015
Portzline followed this with a post on the Dispatch website today, giving further information about the developing situation and quotes from the player himself.
This is certainly one way to get trade talk at a fever pitch. The deadline is less than a week away and Wisniewski would be a huge addition to any team. Which begs the question: what’s the point in the current club moving the d-man?
Let’s consider just what Columbus would give up in a possible Wiz trade. There is, of course, an entire other side to this discussion (What would the return be?), and it’s an issue that is uncertain to the point of random guesswork at this point. Heck, crystal ball searches are even harder free agency signings to come that might reshape the whole roster. For now, let’s look at what James Wisniewski does. We’ll use that as a kind of barometer for what will need filled should #21 leave the team.
Point Considerations
The first item is a big one: point production. Even if you have concerns about Wisniewski’s defensive prowess (something we’ll get to shortly), his traditional contributions are enormous.
Let’s consider some highlights. All stats are as of this writing with time spans specified.
James Wisniewski is:
- 23rd among all NHL d-men in total points since the 2012-13 season, meaning there’s less than one player like him available per team (via Hockey-Reference)
- 1st among CBJ d-men in total points since the 2012-13 season (14 points up on Johnson in 24 fewer games played, again via Hockey-Reference)
- 41st among all d-men in even strength points per 60 minutes from 2012-13 to today, meaning teams only get 1-2 players like him on average (via Hockey Analysis, 1500+ minute threshold)
- 1st among CBJ d-men in even strength points per 60 minutes from 2012-13 to today, his 0.89 is higher than (2nd) Tyutin’s 0.81 and (3rd) Johnson’s 0.59 (again via Hockey Analysis)
- 6th among NHL d-men in power play points per 60 minutes from 2012-13 through today (via Hockey Analysis, 300+ minute threshold)
It’s hard to believe the Blue Jackets find a way to replace James Wisniewski’s defensive point production in the near-term with any kind of trade. There is the caveat that, yes, Wiz is aging (he’s 31 now) so the scoring pace will not continue forever. It’s also unlikely that the d-men above or around his scoring pace will be available anytime soon.
But maybe you’re more worried about the big-picture defensive case with Wiz, you think he’s a defensive liability. Let’s move on to shot-based metrics.
No Different in Shots
Before we dive in, remember that we know d-men don’t have repeatable control over opposition shooting percentage (or, if you prefer, their goalie’s save percentage). Accordingly, control over the shot battle becomes key in our current evaluation of defensemen. A d-man with a net positive shot differential (or at least positive relative to their team)? They’re pushing play the right way.
In this evaluation? Wisniewski passes yet another test. From War-on-Ice, the CBJ d-man is the 24th best defenseman at relative Corsi For % from 2012-13 through today (you can find that here, even strength and minimum 1000 minutes played). The only other Columbus players to crack the top 100? Murray (22nd) and Connauton (78th).
In individual years, Wisniewski also led the CBJ defense in Relative CF%. 2012-13? Yup. 2013-14? Also yes. This season? Still yes.
Maybe you’d feel more comfortable accounting for the conditions of play. We can move on to usage-adjusted data available. Here, we have Domenic Galamini’s superb data visualization tools to peruse. Visit his Own The Puck site and pick Wisniewski from the defensemen plot. The Blue Jacket again comes away as an elite d-man.
A further implication from all this: the defensive concerns for Wisniewski are greatly overblown. Nick has already covered the concept in impressive detail here at BS Hockey, the big mistake is just not as important as Wiz detractors would believe. Wisniewski’s impressive positive shot differentials paint a picture of a man who spends most of his time in the offensive zone.
Teammates Thoughts
Another way to consider a Wiz trade: what happen to everyone else when the player is gone? In a way that’s an unfair question (this talk all exists in a vacuum with no clue at the return). A way to consider this is WOWY (with or without you) information at David Johnson’s Hockey Analysis. Let’s look at Wiz from 2012-2015 (accurate as of 2/23), and consider skaters with 100+ minutes on ice with the d-man.
There are 26 players in this sample. Of those 26, 22 of them have a higher CF% when playing with Wisniewski as opposed to playing away (only 4 saw a dip). Even further, 7 of those 22 positives see a shift of 5 percentage points or more (those, in order of time with Wiz, are Murray, Foligno, Letestu, Umberger, Jenner, Tyutin, and Comeau).
Losing Wisniewski means more time for CBJ skaters without such a positive influence. Call it chemistry, call it just skill from the blueliner, call it what you will. His impact is huge and happens across the roster.
Context on Defense
Removing James Wisniewski from the Blue Jackets’ picture would cause a sudden and worrying gap in the Columbus defensive picture. Remember all the categories where Wiz leads the blueliners? Suddenly there’s a gap left to fill. Remember the War-on-Ice table with RelCF% over the past 3 years? After Wiz, Murray, and Connauton there are zero positive relative players remaining with the CBJ.
Johnson, Savard, and Prout have been “not good” at best. In that context, the Blue Jackets are desperately in need of good defensemen to improve their chances for next season. And instead of doing that? The rumor is a release of the best guy around.
There must be more here than meets the eye here. Wisniewski must have asked out, or there must be some personality conflict behind the scenes. Because to think otherwise, to think that the Jackets are doing this out of their own logic, for the performance reasons suggested? It’s a very worrying vision of just what the front office values, and the hope of a healthier next year might be dulled by continued missteps on the blueline.
(Featured image via Wikimedia and user Michael Miller)
Update, 2/25 10:45 am: I included the line “must have asked out” out of hope that perhaps the organization was acting with some level of intelligence here, that maybe there was a good reason for the loss of a superb d-man, that maybe there was something under the surface we weren’t seeing. As evidenced by Aaron Portzline’s updates today, that’s simply not the case. See below for the news. In short: this is entirely on the hockey operations staff, and it’s easily the most disheartening news to come out of the Kekalainen era. Hopefully the CBJ fail in finishing a trade.
Told James Wisniewski's list of 10 no-trade teams was put together in a way to make it more difficult for #CBJ to trade. In other words …
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) February 25, 2015
… teams with no cap room and no need for offensive defensemen were approved, while teams with glaring need/cap room were on no-trade list.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) February 25, 2015
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