Last year the Pittsburgh Penguins finished the regular season as the class of the Metropolitan Division. When the playoffs came around, the narrative shifted and the Pens were panned for their disappointing run, failing to finish off the New York Rangers in the Conference Semifinals. A summer of semi-turmoil resulted in new management, new coaching, and some fresh faces in the depth spots of the Penguins organization. Can we expect a return to glory for Pittsburgh in 2014-15 season? Will they prove difficult for the Blue Jackets yet again?
2014-15 Schedule vs the Blue Jackets
Game 1 [CBJ Game 29]: Sat Dec 13, Nationwide Arena
Game 2 [CBJ Game 56]: Thurs Feb 19, @ Consol Energy Center
Game 3 [CBJ Game 62]: Sun Mar 1, @ Consol Energy Center
Game 4 [CBJ Game 78]: Sat Apr 1, Nationwide Arena
2013-14 Results vs the Blue Jackets
Game 1: Fri Nov 1, @ Consol Energy Center: CBJ 2 – 4 PIT
Game 2: Sat Nov 2, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 0 – 3 PIT
Game 3: Mon Dec 9, @ Consol Energy Center: CBJ 1 – 2 PIT
Game 4: Sun Dec 29, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 3 – 5 PIT
Game 5: Fri Mar 28, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 1 – 2 PIT
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Penguins win series 4-2
Game 1: Wed Apr 16, @ Consol Energy Center: CBJ 3 – 4 PIT
Game 2: Sat Apr 19, @ Consol Energy Center: CBJ 4 – 3 PIT (2OT)
Game 3: Mon Apr 21, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 3 – 4 PIT
Game 4: Wed Apr 23, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 4 – 3 PIT (OT)
Game 5: Sat Apr 26, @ Consol Energy Center: CBJ 1 – 3 PIT
Game 6: Mon Apr 28, Nationwide Arena: CBJ 3 – 4 PIT
During the regular season, the Battle of I-70 was hardly worth remembering for Columbus fans. Like they did to so many other Eastern Conference foes, the Penguins dispatched the Jackets with relative ease. The reasons aren’t surprising: Sidney Crosby’s 7 points in the 5 games, Evgeni Malkin with 4 points in his 3 appearances, and James Neal’s 5 point outburst 12/29 in Columbus pushed Pittsburgh ahead.
Between all the Penguin losses, the Blue Jackets surged. Columbus’ push eventually sealed the two teams’ fates: they met for the first time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Score effects, bad goaltending, vulnerable leads, raucous crowds, and wild overtimes built incredible drama. If the Jackets can build up on their playoff showing, we may look back on April 2014 as the birth of a great Metro rivalry.
Three of the four 2014-15 games between the Pittsburgh and Columbus come after three quarters of the CBJ campaign is complete. Those 6 available late-season points may prove crucial in seeding for two teams expected to push hard for the top spots in the Metro.
The Penguins at the Top
For the 8th consecutive season, the Penguins finished the year with a point percentage above .600 (meaning at least 98 points per season in an 82 game pace). 7 of those seasons have put them at a 100 point pace, leaving Pittsburgh all but certain as a playoff team in recent years, usually one with home ice advantage. It’s a modern-day legacy of excellence, and it starts at the top: Sidney Crosby.
It should be a given that Crosby is the runaway best player in the NHL. In the event we’re not on the same page, a few reference points are useful. Since joining the league, Crosby has been the NHL leader in points per game by a considerable margin. Also worth noting, his scoring rate per time on ice is also outrageous. Crosby again laps the competition with a sizable gap at even strength.
The only thing holding Crosby’s total numbers back? His injury history. The concussion-shorted 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons offered frightening insight to the dangers of brain damage. A timeline from ESPN in January 2012 chronicles the ups and downs of Crosby’s recovery. A more recent discussion with Josh Hargreaves of The Globe and Mail reveals some of the darkest moments of the player’s injured days. Should head injury strike Crosby again, the Penguins and the whole league would suffer for the loss.
Any time spent checking those top scorer lists should also find the second best point producer nearby: Pittsburgh’s own Evgeni Malkin. The two-headed center monster of 87 and 71 is a problem no matter the deployment choice made. The first option for an opponent: face an unbeatable line with both Crosby and Malkin on the ice together. Good luck surviving. The other choice: face merely one of them at a time. The catch? Half the duo will be on ice over 40 minutes a game. It’s a planning disaster for other team.
No matter what kind of offseason the Penguins endured, the core of their success remains in place: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Even with Neal gone, with Bylsma gone, and with a new GM making decisions, Pittsburgh will continue to be a division favorite if their top centers continue to dominate.
Steel City Blueline
An underrated (or at least under-reported) element of the Penguins over the past few years is their possession strength. Since making the switch away from Michel Therrien, the Pens have been a positive Fenwick team in all but the lockout-shortened season. Two of the recent driving forces in their sustainable success? Kris Letang and Paul Martin. Last year, the Pens were a 50.28% Fenwick team at close-score situation. Over at Pensburgh, Lyle Kossis dug into Pittsburgh’s performance with and without their leading d-men. He found that in games with both Letang and Martin, the Penguins held a blistering 54% Fenwick close percentage.
And this isn’t just an impact against lesser teams in the regular season. The Pens big “undoing” versus the Bruins in the 2013 Eastern Conference Final featured a masterful blueline performance in the final two games with Letang and Martin paired together. Even mighty Boston didn’t have a skater to answer for their skill (the sweep being secured only by the mind-bending play of Tuukka Rask).
Further bolstering the defense is Christian Ehrhoff, another superb possession player and one of the top scoring d-men over the past few years (all while part of an abysmal Buffalo team). He is arguably a superior fill-in for the Washington-bound Matt Niskanen. Another year with young phenom Ollii Maatta and addition-by-subtraction with Brooks Orpik gone, and the Penguins defense looks to be one of the league’s best.
The (Relative) Hole in the Armor
Of course, all this high-level skater play is for naught if the puck still ends up in the back of the Pittsburgh net anyway. Cue Marc-Andre Fleury, sometimes whipping boy of the hockey world. And to a degree, his reputation of being bad is deserved. Over the past 3 years, Fleury is 19th out of 38 qualifying goalies in even strength save percentage with a 91.95% mark (among those with 3000+ minutes played). That’s squarely in the middle, hardly worth the sizable $5 million cap hit the stuck on the Pens. His playoff performances have been exceptionally poor, and it’s easy to imagine Pittsburgh with at least one more Cup had his play been even slightly better.
What happens for the Pens this year? Odds are good that Fleury continues as the primary starter, meaning a solid team ahead of him will keep pushing the win total. Waiting in the wings is backup Thomas Greiss, previously a member of the Phoenix Coyotes and San Jose Sharks. Greiss has a solid but limited resume thus far (2nd in even strength save percentage on this list, but with less than a third the ice time of Rask). Should Fleury falter (or if Pittsburgh elects to spread goalie responsibility a bit) the next guy up might actually be the better choice for sustainable winning (but we can’t be sure quite yet).
New Behind the Bench
There is one final wrinkle in the Penguins’ outlook this year, and that’s the coaching change. Out is Dan Bylsma, in comes Mike Johnston (previously head coach with the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL). It’s hard for me to find much fault in Bylsma’s work (especially given the big shift in play after the Pens fired Therrien), so I hope he stays out of the Metro when a new job inevitably pops up.
As for the new leader, Johnston promises to bring greater emphasis on puck possession and speed. If he can successfully translate his gameplan to the NHL, there is potential for the Penguins to excel (even above their previous heights). If implementation takes time or doesn’t pan out at the higher level, Pittsburgh could struggle in the early going. It’ll be interesting to see how the Penguin style changes over the course of the year, especially with high-talent toys at Johnston’s disposal.
Buckeye State Hockey Staff Prediction
The Buckeye State Hockey writers predict the Penguins to finish 1st in the Metro. There’s a real chance here for Pittsburgh to be a Stanley Cup contender if the top talent stays healthy and the goaltending isn’t a complete mess. The top 2 forward lines and top 2 defense pairings should be some of the NHL’s best. Add in a full season of depth improvements (Marcel Goc, former Blue Jacket Blake Comeau), and a chance at improved play under a new coach? The Penguins figure to come out strong after all the offseason organizational distraction. Expect Crosby’s team near the top of the East.
Projected Lines
Chris Kunitz – Sidney Crosby – Pascal Dupuis
Beau Bennett – Evgeni Malkin – Patric Hornqvist
Nick Spaling – Brandon Sutter – Steve Downie
Blake Comeau – Marcel Goc – Craig Adams
It’s fair to expect a degree of fluidity with some of the wingers during the year. Dupuis has history with Crosby-Kunitz and Malkin-Hornqvist seem fairly certain, the other parts may shift as the season progresses and the coaching staff better learns the weapons at hand.
Kris Letang – Paul Martin
Christian Ehrhoff – Olli Maatta
Rob Scuderi – Simon Despres
Some hints at Letang with Scuderi and Ehrhoff have appeared during the early preseason, although it’s difficult to read into that with rosters comprised of only some NHLers each night.
Marc-Andre Fleury – Thomas Greiss
Penguins Blogs and People to Follow
SB Nation’s Pensburgh
@Jay32600
@LyleKossis
@GunnerStaal
@Allie874
(Sidney Crosby cover photo courtesy of TaraO at Wikimedia Commons, Consol Energy Center photo by Matt Souva)
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